Where should the Cowboys be ranked? #9 on CFP

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Sep 29, 2011
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I can't see us jumping ND if we both win out. They have all the ingredients to stay ahead of us in that scenario. Our best chance is Bama getting blown out by Georgia and UM losing to tOSU. In that scenario, the battle for the 4th spot in the CFP comes down to OSU, Cincy, and a 2-loss Bama.

Georgia
tOSU
ND
OSU/Cincy/Bama
What ingrediants? We'll have 3 top-10 CFP wins plus a win vs an 8-4 KSU. ND will have zero top-10 wins with their best win vs a 4-loss Wisconsin. No chance an 11-1 Notre Dame will be ranked ahead of a 12-1 Big12 Champ OSU.

The CFP DOES NOT embrace the "just win to keep your rank" mentality. They have shown you can earn jumping teams in the rankings by posting better wins and/or better resumes.
 
Feb 7, 2007
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Mark it down right now.

If we win Saturday, we’ll be #5 (moving ahead of tOSU v UM loser and ND) heading into championship week.

If we then win the B12 Championship we’ll leapfrog Cincy and move to #3 if Bama loses, # 4 if Bama wins.

Fancy this, if Bama loses and the B1G champion is not tOSU or UM, we’ll probably wind up #2.


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I think if the committee is going to jump us over ND, it will be the last week where they can claim they did it because ND didn't play in a CCG. But I hope you're right.
 

Birry

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Feb 6, 2007
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What ingrediants? We'll have 3 top-10 CFP wins plus a win vs an 8-4 KSU. ND will have zero top-10 wins with their best win vs a 4-loss Wisconsin. No chance an 11-1 Notre Dame will be ranked ahead of a 12-1 Big12 Champ OSU.

The CFP DOES NOT embrace the "just win to keep your rank" mentality. They have shown you can earn jumping teams in the rankings by posting better wins and/or better resumes.
They still have a decent SoS and they are a blue blood program (more $$$ incentive for them to be there). I wouldn't be surprised if they stuck in the CFP even if they didn't deserve it.

I would tend to agree that if we win-out, we're in. But it'll still be some musical chairs with 4 teams trying to get two spots.

Let's also not forget about uo. Like it or not, they could still win out, themselves, and have a good argument for a CFP spot.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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What ingrediants? We'll have 3 top-10 CFP wins plus a win vs an 8-4 KSU. ND will have zero top-10 wins with their best win vs a 4-loss Wisconsin. No chance an 11-1 Notre Dame will be ranked ahead of a 12-1 Big12 Champ OSU.

The CFP DOES NOT embrace the "just win to keep your rank" mentality. They have shown you can earn jumping teams in the rankings by posting better wins and/or better resumes.
They still have a decent SoS and they are a blue blood program (more $$$ incentive for them to be there). I wouldn't be surprised if they stuck in the CFP even if they didn't deserve it.

I would tend to agree that if we win-out, we're in. But it'll still be some musical chairs with 4 teams trying to get two spots.

Let's also not forget about uo. Like it or not, they could still win out, themselves, and have a good argument for a CFP spot.
If you think $$$$ or popularity drive decisions, you’re nuts. The CFP committee couldn’t care less about the popularity or revenue generating profile of a school. Why would committee members from non-blue bloods buy into that idea? Why would committee chairs from Ark, TTech and Iowa willingly be the face of a process that is detrimental to their own school? Why would former committee members keep their mouth shut?

Life is much easier and less stressful after you throw your tin foil hat in the garbage.


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Birry

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If you think $$$$ or popularity drive decisions, you’re nuts. The CFP committee couldn’t care less about the popularity or revenue generating profile of a school. Why would committee members from non-blue bloods buy into that idea? Why would committee chairs from Ark, TTech and Iowa willingly be the face of a process that is detrimental to their own school? Why would former committee members keep their mouth shut?

Life is much easier and less stressful after you throw your tin foil hat in the garbage.
My life isn't super difficult or stressful, and foil hasn't been made with tin since about WWII.

Do you really believe biases don't influence committee decisions?
 
Dec 2, 2008
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If you think $$$$ or popularity drive decisions, you’re nuts. The CFP committee couldn’t care less about the popularity or revenue generating profile of a school. Why would committee members from non-blue bloods buy into that idea? Why would committee chairs from Ark, TTech and Iowa willingly be the face of a process that is detrimental to their own school? Why would former committee members keep their mouth shut?

Life is much easier and less stressful after you throw your tin foil hat in the garbage.


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Money. Conferences get a quite a bit of money if a school makes the top 4. Thus the narrative of a two loss Bama getting in.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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If you think $$$$ or popularity drive decisions, you’re nuts. The CFP committee couldn’t care less about the popularity or revenue generating profile of a school. Why would committee members from non-blue bloods buy into that idea? Why would committee chairs from Ark, TTech and Iowa willingly be the face of a process that is detrimental to their own school? Why would former committee members keep their mouth shut?

Life is much easier and less stressful after you throw your tin foil hat in the garbage.
My life isn't super difficult or stressful, and foil hasn't been made with tin since about WWII.

Do you really believe biases don't influence committee decisions?
Biases present? Sure. All else being equal, Bama or tOSU would be most committee members choice over the Cowboys most of the time. But are/do/will the committee members ignoring real differences in favor of the blue bloods? No.


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Sep 29, 2011
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If you think $$$$ or popularity drive decisions, you’re nuts. The CFP committee couldn’t care less about the popularity or revenue generating profile of a school. Why would committee members from non-blue bloods buy into that idea? Why would committee chairs from Ark, TTech and Iowa willingly be the face of a process that is detrimental to their own school? Why would former committee members keep their mouth shut?

Life is much easier and less stressful after you throw your tin foil hat in the garbage.


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Money. Conferences get a quite a bit of money if a school makes the top 4. Thus the narrative of a two loss Bama getting in.
So the guys from the B1G and B12 are gonna go for that? BS!


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Sep 29, 2011
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So the guys from the B1G and B12 are gonna go for that? BS!


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Of course they are. It sets yet another precedent for future seasons.
So the B1G, Big12, ACC and PAC are gonna sign on to giving the SEC an undeserved spot worth big $$$$ so someone (like the SEC) will return the favor in the future?

Sorry, you might look into a mental health check.


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Nov 6, 2010
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Biases present? Sure. All else being equal, Bama or tOSU would be most committee members choice over the Cowboys most of the time. But are/do/will the committee members ignoring real differences in favor of the blue bloods? No.


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I think the argument boils down to "how much" bias there is. You seem to dismiss it outright with the "tin foil" comment, and I think that is a bit naïve. While I agree with you that money interests, etc, may not play directly into the member's decisions, bias still creeps in, and I think more than you're willing to acknowledge. You say Herbie isn't on the committee, and you're right, but he is a powerful voice in the sport, so what he says matters, and that's not even bias, that is direct influence. I don't think it unreasonable to assume that if ou advances with the exact same 12-1 resume that we hope to have, there would be no question about them being in over ND or Cincy, whereas with us, with same potential resume, there will be.
 
Oct 29, 2004
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From CBS Sports:
‘It's a virtual certainty that the Cowboys will jump Notre Dame if the Pokes win out, and the same can likely be said for No. 10 Oklahoma.”


https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...ati-makes-history-notre-dame-in-bad-position/
I believe that as well. However, you can't blame anyone for not seriously talking about the Pokes in these CFP discussions given our history in Bedlam. Like this "upset" prediction from a writer for USA Today:

Paul Myerberg
Oklahoma finds an offense and scores just enough to get past Oklahoma State and win a low-scoring Bedlam. Not that history would call this an upset: OU is 90-18-7 in the series. But to beat the Cowboys after two weeks of below-average play from Caleb Williams and the rest of the normally explosive offense would leave the Sooners in range of the playoff heading into another matchup against OSU to decide the Big 12 title.

Do I think we are capable of getting it done this year? Absolutely!! With our defense being one of the best units in college football, we just need to DO IT!!! There's no reason we should be the team that lets a freshman quarterback who has struggled the last 2 weeks have any opportunity for positive success. Send the Norman Sooners packing.

After that win the CFP world and discussions will open up to us. It not, shame on us.
 
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Sep 29, 2011
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I think the argument boils down to "how much" bias there is. You seem to dismiss it outright with the "tin foil" comment, and I think that is a bit naïve. While I agree with you that money interests, etc, may not play directly into the member's decisions, bias still creeps in, and I think more than you're willing to acknowledge. You say Herbie isn't on the committee, and you're right, but he is a powerful voice in the sport, so what he says matters, and that's not even bias, that is direct influence. I don't think it unreasonable to assume that if ou advances with the exact same 12-1 resume that we hope to have, there would be no question about them being in over ND or Cincy, whereas with us, with same potential resume, there will be.
Given the history of the CFP participants, there's next to zero evidence of bias. And until clear bias is evident in the final rankings, there's no reason to believe it exists in any meaningful way. That is unless that tin foil thingy is square on your mind.
 
Oct 4, 2006
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Ok, let’s assume every team wins out (I know that is impossible) but here is what the ranking would be. Not what they should be, what they would be.

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5/6. Cincinnati / OSU
7. OU
8. Notre Dame

I honestly don’t know what the committee would do with Cincinnati and OSU if both win out. I think we may jump them but either way wouldn’t shock me.

So, to “guarantee” our spot, we need 2 teams in front of us to get knocked out. Ohio State and Michigan will take care of 1. Then, we need either Georgia to beat Alabama (I think close or not doesn’t matter, 2 loss Bama is out) or Cincinnati to lose to ECU or Houston. One of those 2 outcomes and we control our own destiny.

Just keep winning!


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