What to expect in 2024 (UT/OU)

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Sep 21, 2011
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#1
Here's how I see it playing out:

ESPN will offer the Big12 a sweetheart deal to let the two malcontents out of the conference with little to no buyout.

Basically ESPN will roll the buyout into the Big12 media deal. So what might have been a 10-year deal for $4 billion will get bumped to $4.5 billion.

This will stabilize the Big12. Should ESPN so desire, there could be escalator clauses for the addition of certain schools. This could serve to further destabilize the PAC. If the AZ schools can get more $$ in the Big12, they just might jump.

Meanwhile, the LHN will either get folded into the SEC Network or become the seeds of a Big12 Network.

Thoughts?
 
Nov 6, 2010
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#2
Here's how I see it playing out:

ESPN will offer the Big12 a sweetheart deal to let the two malcontents out of the conference with little to no buyout.

Basically ESPN will roll the buyout into the Big12 media deal. So what might have been a 10-year deal for $4 billion will get bumped to $4.5 billion.

This will stabilize the Big12. Should ESPN so desire, there could be escalator clauses for the addition of certain schools. This could serve to further destabilize the PAC. If the AZ schools can get more $$ in the Big12, they just might jump.

Meanwhile, the LHN will either get folded into the SEC Network or become the seeds of a Big12 Network.

Thoughts?
I don't see any way the LHN survives this, I think that's a foregone conclusion. But as others have said, Fox has a say in it all, so may not be a simple as you lay it out.
 

OSUCowboy787

Territorial Marshal
Dec 31, 2008
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Keller, Texas
#3
Here's how I see it playing out:

ESPN will offer the Big12 a sweetheart deal to let the two malcontents out of the conference with little to no buyout.

Basically ESPN will roll the buyout into the Big12 media deal. So what might have been a 10-year deal for $4 billion will get bumped to $4.5 billion.

This will stabilize the Big12. Should ESPN so desire, there could be escalator clauses for the addition of certain schools. This could serve to further destabilize the PAC. If the AZ schools can get more $$ in the Big12, they just might jump.

Meanwhile, the LHN will either get folded into the SEC Network or become the seeds of a Big12 Network.

Thoughts?

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Sep 29, 2006
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#4
Here's how I see it playing out:

ESPN will offer the Big12 a sweetheart deal to let the two malcontents out of the conference with little to no buyout.

Basically ESPN will roll the buyout into the Big12 media deal. So what might have been a 10-year deal for $4 billion will get bumped to $4.5 billion.

This will stabilize the Big12. Should ESPN so desire, there could be escalator clauses for the addition of certain schools. This could serve to further destabilize the PAC. If the AZ schools can get more $$ in the Big12, they just might jump.

Meanwhile, the LHN will either get folded into the SEC Network or become the seeds of a Big12 Network.

Thoughts?
This is exactly how I see it as well, which is why I like Yormark. I think he is a deal maker and understands leverage in negotiations. He is finding what little the B12 has as leverage and using it to create value.
Right now the only high value the league has is OU and UT and we own them for a few more years. Yormark is making the price tag of leaving early very high. “You want them, you can have them-but it’s gonna cost you!!”
 
Apr 14, 2008
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#5
Here's how I see it playing out:

ESPN will offer the Big12 a sweetheart deal to let the two malcontents out of the conference with little to no buyout.

Basically ESPN will roll the buyout into the Big12 media deal. So what might have been a 10-year deal for $4 billion will get bumped to $4.5 billion.

This will stabilize the Big12. Should ESPN so desire, there could be escalator clauses for the addition of certain schools. This could serve to further destabilize the PAC. If the AZ schools can get more $$ in the Big12, they just might jump.

Meanwhile, the LHN will either get folded into the SEC Network or become the seeds of a Big12 Network.

Thoughts?
So, in your scenario, ESPN pays the Big XII an extra $500M ($50M per year) to clear the OU/UT debt of $160M exit fees a year early. Is getting OU/UT just 1 year early really worth $340M to ESPN? ...I don't see it.

The closer we get to the end of the media rights deal, the less likely that the early fee will be paid b/c the recovery period is shortened. If it was going to happen early, it would have happened already IMO.
 
Sep 21, 2011
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#6
So, in your scenario, ESPN pays the Big XII an extra $500M ($50M per year) to clear the OU/UT debt of $160M exit fees a year early. Is getting OU/UT just 1 year early really worth $340M to ESPN? ...I don't see it.

The closer we get to the end of the media rights deal, the less likely that the early fee will be paid b/c the recovery period is shortened. If it was going to happen early, it would have happened already IMO.
Maybe it's $4.2 billion. The exact $$ isn't the point. The point is ESPN will be able to grease the sleds for the exit of the 2 cruddites.

As for timing, it's not as relevant in this round of exits because the exit bylaws are radically different than when Missouri left. The buyout is for leaving prior to 2112 (end date of the Big12 agreement) and it is set at 2 years of conference distributions.

Prior to June 1, 2023 either OU/UT will officially announce their departure date or the remaining members will vote to affirm that the 2 have taken actions consistent with leaving the conference. This will trigger the exit clause and its buyout language.
 
Dec 19, 2012
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#7
So, in your scenario, ESPN pays the Big XII an extra $500M ($50M per year) to clear the OU/UT debt of $160M exit fees a year early. Is getting OU/UT just 1 year early really worth $340M to ESPN? ...I don't see it.

The closer we get to the end of the media rights deal, the less likely that the early fee will be paid b/c the recovery period is shortened. If it was going to happen early, it would have happened already IMO.
That's what I thought at first too, but I think he is including Texas' Network deal with ESPN too. It will have approximately 7-8 years left (in 2024) and $105-120 mil left I think. It was already reported they want to dissolve the Texas' Network into the Big XII Network. So 160m+120m= 280m not an extra 500m in 2024. If it's earlier, as in this summer, if might be around 135mil, so around $300m maybe. It's possible it's also worth a little more money to them since they will have bigger games in the SEC, plus more schools in the Big XII network to promote.

FOX (other major networks) and Amazon/Netflix could play a role though. Amazon reported outbid everyone in some rights in a couple other conferences, but they weren't willing to take the risk. Additionally, the Playoff implementation year could play a role.
 
Nov 29, 2021
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#8
So, in your scenario, ESPN pays the Big XII an extra $500M ($50M per year) to clear the OU/UT debt of $160M exit fees a year early. Is getting OU/UT just 1 year early really worth $340M to ESPN? ...I don't see it.

The closer we get to the end of the media rights deal, the less likely that the early fee will be paid b/c the recovery period is shortened. If it was going to happen early, it would have happened already IMO.
Well, considering we had an ass hat as commish until two months ago, I dunno...
 
Jul 9, 2011
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#9
So, in your scenario, ESPN pays the Big XII an extra $500M ($50M per year) to clear the OU/UT debt of $160M exit fees a year early. Is getting OU/UT just 1 year early really worth $340M to ESPN? ...I don't see it.

The closer we get to the end of the media rights deal, the less likely that the early fee will be paid b/c the recovery period is shortened. If it was going to happen early, it would have happened already IMO.
Also, the more games OU & UT lose this year, the less chance of any early buyout. They could end up being a couple of 3 loss also-rans this season.
 

andylicious

Territorial Marshal
Nov 16, 2013
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#10
Also, the more games OU & UT lose this year, the less chance of any early buyout. They could end up being a couple of 3 loss also-rans this season.
Don't you mean three conference wins? Right now their peer group is WVU and themselves. The chicken hawks are good, Mildcats are good, Sucklones aren't bad, taco breathes are improving, and then you hit the Pokes and Rayplor