Week 13 - Games of Interest

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Jun 4, 2007
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#1
Here are the key matchups, times & networks for this week.
Preferred winner in bold.

Friday
#4 Cincinnati (11-0) @ East Carolina (7-4) 2:30 PM - ABC

Saturday
#1 Georgia
(11-0) @ Georgia Tech (3-8) 11:00 AM - ABC

#2 Ohio State (10-1) @ #5 Michigan (10-1) 11:00 AM - FOX (one of them gets a second loss but I don't trust the committee)

Texas Tech (6-5) @ #8 Baylor (9-2) 11:00 AM - FS1

#3 Alabama (10-1) @ Auburn (6-5) 2:30 PM - CBS

#10 Oklahoma (10-1) @ #7 Oklahoma State (10-1) 6:30 PM - ABC

#6 Notre Dame (10-1) @ Stanford (3-8) 7:00 PM - FOX

The outcome I expect is that Notre Dame wins but Oklahoma State swaps places with them (win over #10 vs win over a 3-8 team). With Michigan losing, Oklahoma State also moves up another spot to #5. Style points wouldn't hurt for the Cowboys....

That sets up the final CFP rankings for Oklahoma State to move into the #4 spot after winning the Big 12 Championship game over then #6 - #8 Baylor in Arlington (again, style points will matter). It would be even better if 10-1 Houston eliminates Cincinnati in the AAC Championship.

I didn't even worry about the SEC CCG "what if's" here because I am looking for the path to #4.
 
Last edited:
Oct 4, 2006
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Saint Louis, MO
#2
Here are the key matchups, times & networks for this week.
Preferred winner in bold.

Friday
#4 Cincinnati (11-0) @ East Carolina (7-4) 2:30 PM - ABC

Saturday
#1 Georgia
(11-0) @ Georgia Tech (3-8) 11:00 AM - ABC

#2 Ohio State (10-1) @ #5 Michigan (10-1) 11:00 AM - FOX (one of them gets a second 2 loss but I don't trust the committee)

Texas Tech (6-5) @ #8 Baylor (9-2) 11:00 AM - FS1

#3 Alabama (10-1) @ Auburn (6-5) 2:30 PM - CBS

#10 Oklahoma (10-1) @ #7 Oklahoma State (10-1) 6:30 PM - ABC

#6 Notre Dame (10-1) @ Stanford (3-8) 7:00 PM - FOX

The outcome I expect is that Notre Dame wins but Oklahoma State swaps places with them (win over #10 vs win over a 3-8 team). With Michigan losing, Oklahoma State also moves up another spot to #5. Style points wouldn't hurt for the Cowboys....

That sets up the final CFP rankings for Oklahoma State to move into the #4 spot after winning the Big 12 Championship game over then #6 - #8 Baylor in Arlington (again, style points will matter). It would be even better if 10-1 Houston eliminates Cincinnati in the AAC Championship.

I didn't even worry about the SEC CCG "what if's" here because I am looking for the path to #4.
I think you are mostly correct. Although, I’d rather Georgia Tech beat Georgia. That is a non-con game and Georgia would still play Bama in the SEC title game. Loser of that game then ends up with 2 losses and is eliminated regardless of the result.

I want Michigan to take down Ohio State because Ohio State is better. I’d love to get a CFP first round matchup of 2. Michigan vs 3. OSU. I’m allowed to dream, right? Ther is zero chance a 2 loss Ohio State without a Big 10 Championship gets in over 1 loss OSU or Cincinnati.

I don’t think either has even a decent chance of happening though. I’m actually worried Bama will beat Georgia. Their best win is against Clemson. I think Georgia is good but do we know they are as good as everyone thinks they are?


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Jun 4, 2007
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Broken Arrow, Ok
#6
I think you are mostly correct. Although, I’d rather Georgia Tech beat Georgia. That is a non-con game and Georgia would still play Bama in the SEC title game. Loser of that game then ends up with 2 losses and is eliminated regardless of the result.

I want Michigan to take down Ohio State because Ohio State is better. I’d love to get a CFP first round matchup of 2. Michigan vs 3. OSU. I’m allowed to dream, right? Ther is zero chance a 2 loss Ohio State without a Big 10 Championship gets in over 1 loss OSU or Cincinnati.

I don’t think either has even a decent chance of happening though. I’m actually worried Bama will beat Georgia. Their best win is against Clemson. I think Georgia is good but do we know they are as good as everyone thinks they are?


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If both Georgia and Ohio State were to lose the way you've described - the CFP committee will just flip to their pre-written responses on how/why 2 loss teams deserve to be in this year. I'm convinced they're already written. We'd start hearing less about "quality wins" & "resume" and they'll switch to terms like "parity" & "balanced conference".
 
Nov 18, 2010
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#9
I think you are mostly correct. Although, I’d rather Georgia Tech beat Georgia. That is a non-con game and Georgia would still play Bama in the SEC title game. Loser of that game then ends up with 2 losses and is eliminated regardless of the result.

I’m actually worried Bama will beat Georgia. Their best win is against Clemson. I think Georgia is good but do we know they are as good as everyone thinks they are?
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Agree with all this.
Georgia is enjoying the usual, 'oh that SEC team is by far the best so let's not look at their schedule' hype this year.
Let's look at Georgia's schedule.

Clemson - won by 7 pts. (Clemson also lost to Pittsburgh and NC State this year)
UAB - who?
South Carolina -would be middle of the pack in the big 12. 6-5 on the year
Vanderbuilt - horrible
Arkansas - decent. Like Kansas St. ish
Auburn -down this year
Kentucky - horrible
Florida -almost lost to SAMFORD
Missouri - West Virginia-ish
Tennessee - Texas Tech-ish
Charleston South - FCS level

Playing Georgia Tech this week, who is horrible.

They've played 3-4 teams that would finish in the middle of the pack in the big 12. So they have 2 wins against teams ranked in the 20-25 range.

They could absolutely lose to a top 10-top 15 team like Alabama.
 
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OrangeFan69

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#10
Agree with all this.
Georgia is enjoying the usual, 'oh that SEC team is by far the best so let's not look at their schedule' hype this year.
Let's look at Georgia's schedule.

Clemson - won by 7 pts. (Clemson also lost to Pittsburgh and NC State this year)
UAB - who?
South Carolina -would be middle of the pack in the big 12. 6-5 on the year
Vanderbuilt - horrible
Arkansas - decent. Like Kansas St. ish
Auburn -down this year
Kentucky - horrible
Florida -almost lost to SAMFORD
Missouri - West Virginia-ish
Tennessee - Texas Tech-ish
Charleston South - FCS level

Playing Georgia Tech this week, who is horrible.

They've played 3-4 teams that would finish in the middle of the pack in the big 12. So they have 2 wins against teams ranked in the 20-25 range.

They could absolutely lose to a top 10-top 15 team like Alabama.
They are destroying said teams and have NFL Caliber talent sitting on the bench.

Of course they COULD lose.

I also COULD marry Taylor Swift.

Georgia is the real deal, and they only way they don't win it all will mostly be on them, not their opposition.
 
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Dec 7, 2006
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#12
Georgia is the real deal, and they only way they don't win it all will mostly be on them, not their opposition.
Exactly. They've played with their food and still have had every game other than Clemson under control by halftime. Alabama is a big test but, given how they've looked against lesser competition, Georgia should win by two scores. And if they don't, bad news potentially for us because I don't trust the committee to put us in over an undefeated Cincinnati (if the helmet logo said OU, I'd feel differently). In short: Go Dawgs.
 
Oct 4, 2006
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Saint Louis, MO
#13
Agree with all this.
Georgia is enjoying the usual, 'oh that SEC team is by far the best so let's not look at their schedule' hype this year.
Let's look at Georgia's schedule.

Clemson - won by 7 pts. (Clemson also lost to Pittsburgh and NC State this year)
UAB - who?
South Carolina -would be middle of the pack in the big 12. 6-5 on the year
Vanderbuilt - horrible
Arkansas - decent. Like Kansas St. ish
Auburn -down this year
Kentucky - horrible
Florida -almost lost to SAMFORD
Missouri - West Virginia-ish
Tennessee - Texas Tech-ish
Charleston South - FCS level

Playing Georgia Tech this week, who is horrible.

They've played 3-4 teams that would finish in the middle of the pack in the big 12. So they have 2 wins against teams ranked in the 20-25 range.

They could absolutely lose to a top 10-top 15 team like Alabama.
They are destroying said teams and have NFL Caliber talent sitting on the bench.

Of course they COULD lose.

I also COULD marry Taylor Swift.

Georgia is the real deal, and they only way they don't win it all will mostly be on them, not their opposition.
Not saying Georgia isn’t good, just saying Alabama is by far the best team they will have played this year. I’m not as confident they will win that game as I am that I will not be marrying Taylor Swift.


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Oct 4, 2006
12,249
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Saint Louis, MO
#14
I think you are mostly correct. Although, I’d rather Georgia Tech beat Georgia. That is a non-con game and Georgia would still play Bama in the SEC title game. Loser of that game then ends up with 2 losses and is eliminated regardless of the result.

I want Michigan to take down Ohio State because Ohio State is better. I’d love to get a CFP first round matchup of 2. Michigan vs 3. OSU. I’m allowed to dream, right? Ther is zero chance a 2 loss Ohio State without a Big 10 Championship gets in over 1 loss OSU or Cincinnati.

I don’t think either has even a decent chance of happening though. I’m actually worried Bama will beat Georgia. Their best win is against Clemson. I think Georgia is good but do we know they are as good as everyone thinks they are?


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If both Georgia and Ohio State were to lose the way you've described - the CFP committee will just flip to their pre-written responses on how/why 2 loss teams deserve to be in this year. I'm convinced they're already written. We'd start hearing less about "quality wins" & "resume" and they'll switch to terms like "parity" & "balanced conference".
People keep saying this. I just think we are scarred and overly paranoid from 2011. There is no chance a 12-1 Big 12 Champion OSU gets left out in favor of a 2 loss Georgia, Ohio State, or Alabama.


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Oct 4, 2006
12,249
2,458
1,743
Saint Louis, MO
#16
People keep saying this. I just think we are scarred and overly paranoid from 2011. There is no chance a 12-1 Big 12 Champion OSU gets left out in favor of a 2 loss Georgia, Ohio State, or Alabama.


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One loss Georgia they're undefeated. I'll go out on a limb and say Alabama will not beat Georgia.
Yeah, in this hypothetical, they lose to both Georgia Tech and Alabama. Since we’re talking about this week’s games. Very very likely not going to happen.


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Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
#19
Agree with all this.
Georgia is enjoying the usual, 'oh that SEC team is by far the best so let's not look at their schedule' hype this year.
Let's look at Georgia's schedule.

Clemson - won by 7 pts. (Clemson also lost to Pittsburgh and NC State this year)
UAB - who?
South Carolina -would be middle of the pack in the big 12. 6-5 on the year
Vanderbuilt - horrible
Arkansas - decent. Like Kansas St. ish
Auburn -down this year
Kentucky - horrible
Florida -almost lost to SAMFORD
Missouri - West Virginia-ish
Tennessee - Texas Tech-ish
Charleston South - FCS level

Playing Georgia Tech this week, who is horrible.

They've played 3-4 teams that would finish in the middle of the pack in the big 12. So they have 2 wins against teams ranked in the 20-25 range.

They could absolutely lose to a top 10-top 15 team like Alabama.
They are destroying said teams and have NFL Caliber talent sitting on the bench.

Of course they COULD lose.

I also COULD marry Taylor Swift.

Georgia is the real deal, and they only way they don't win it all will mostly be on them, not their opposition.
Have you actually watched them?

Yes, they’re suffocating on defense. Offense? Average. Really not much different than the team from Stillwater.


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