The Market Thread

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Jun 4, 2014
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Dallas, TX
I think this is the way it used to be. My grandfather owned a dealership in the 50's to 70's. It was downtown and had a showroom with three new cars and there were some in the back somewhere. My grandmother drove a "demonstrator" and if someone wanted to test drive that model, they would hunt her down and take her car to be driven. There was a used car lot outside of downtown. That model makes a lot of sense. The dealership doesn't have to pay the carrying cost on a bunch of inventory, worry about hail and a whole host of other issues.
This was the popular route for sure. I'm not that old, but my dad was in the car restoration business for a long time. Here's an olds 442 order form.

1654866660787.png
 
Jun 4, 2014
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Dallas, TX
There has been discussion on the home prices in here too. Dallas has been greatly affected, and I count myself lucky to be a home owner. This was also a topic on The Ticket yesterday during the Morning Musers. They had a real estate guy call in and explain how the reason institutions (REITs) are snapping up these houses is because of a "lack of viable investment vehicles". In other words, the traditional market vehicles are too risky or overvalued in their opinion to be a safe haven for wealth or growth.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/202...f-all-homes-sold-in-tarrant-county-last-year/

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/defau...ales-and-single-family-rentals-05-12-2022.pdf

Dallas and Fort Worth are looking into codes around short term rentals, and I'm hoping they change the tax code for these.
 

LS1 Z28

Territorial Marshal
Oct 30, 2007
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It's seeming more and more likely to me the NASDAQ might drop below pre-Covid levels.
That's very possible if this continues. Even if inflation is close to peaking, we've still got a long way to go to get back down to 2%. It will be interesting to see how the Fed interprets this data. The markets won't like it if they signal that they could get more aggressive with rate hikes.

This is a really odd time. The economy is surging despite the fact that inflation is at its highest level in over four decades. Basic logic tells us that the increasing interest rates will cause contraction, but many are still predicting that we'll be able to avoid a recession.

My gut tells me that the Fed needs to get more aggressive even if it does cause a mild recession. I'm not sure that they'll do that though. I'm honestly not sure what to expect.
 
Sep 6, 2012
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Edmond
That's very possible if this continues. Even if inflation is close to peaking, we've still got a long way to go to get back down to 2%. It will be interesting to see how the Fed interprets this data. The markets won't like it if they signal that they could get more aggressive with rate hikes.

This is a really odd time. The economy is surging despite the fact that inflation is at its highest level in over four decades. Basic logic tells us that the increasing interest rates will cause contraction, but many are still predicting that we'll be able to avoid a recession.

My gut tells me that the Fed needs to get more aggressive even if it does cause a mild recession. I'm not sure that they'll do that though. I'm honestly not sure what to expect.
They are going to have to raise rates 1 to 1.5 more. Way too much money in the market and people with devil don't care attitude.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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I think long term it won't matter. I don't expect this feel good sentiment to last the week.
Sure. It's hard to figure where the money is going though. Seems cash is being pulled out of every asset class just to be parked in cash, where inflation is going to take it down quickly. I would think something should be going up with everything else going down.
 

jobob85

Drunkle
A/V Subscriber
Mar 11, 2009
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Sure. It's hard to figure where the money is going though. Seems cash is being pulled out of every asset class just to be parked in cash, where inflation is going to take it down quickly. I would think something should be going up with everything else going down.
Inflation at -8% a year over the last year vs the market at -20 to 30%. Cash is the least ugly of the two and real estate will adjust based on the rising mortgage rates. I am hoping by this time next year ( well after Q2 2023 numbers) we can look at this in the rear view mirror. On a positive note CD's will be going up. You might even make a couple % on a 12-18 month CD.
 
Sep 3, 2010
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Inflation at -8% a year over the last year vs the market at -20 to 30%. Cash is the least ugly of the two and real estate will adjust based on the rising mortgage rates. I am hoping by this time next year ( well after Q2 2023 numbers) we can look at this in the rear view mirror. On a positive note CD's will be going up. You might even make a couple % on a 12-18 month CD.
I bought 6 month t bills with a 2.3 yield today.
 
Oct 7, 2008
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Oil is up 2% and NYSE oil index is down over 5% on the day. I added to some dividend paying energy stocks today but holding off on tech. Very many more of these 4% down days and we could be back to 2018 levels on the NASDAQ in a few short weeks.