The Market Thread

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Dec 9, 2013
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Yep. I ordered a new skid loader in February and they said it would deliver in 60 days. $10k over what it would have delivered for last year and last Friday they told me not to expect it until August at the earliest.
I bought a new one last yr. Basically same model as my 11 yr old at the same price as my 2011 model. Plus got 10k more on my trade in of the 2011 than I was quoted 3 yrs prior. CoVid sucks for many reasons but my 2021 bobcat says thanks.
 

UrbanCowboy1

Some cowboys gots smarts real good like me.
Aug 8, 2006
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I can only assume this HAS TO BE HAPPENING. Because I see people actually (happily) paying these EXTREME inflated prices for housing and vehicles right now.

I make pretty damned good money. My annual salary is easily in the 6 figure range. BUT I CAN'T AFFORD a $70k+ vehicle... apparently there are literally truckloads of people out there that can. :eek::eek::eek:
Same here in Phoenix. Wife and I make really great money, but we both drive small, reasonable used cars. The vast majority of people that are buying new trucks and sports cars must be leveraged up to their eyeballs, because it just doesn't add up with the median household income. I think the savings rate chart from earlier really tells that story - people are living ridiculously beyond their means because they have to have the latest.

Another good example of this is Disneyworld. The below shows the cost of a ticket through 2019. And the people that are going to Disneyworld can NOT afford that. But they don't let that stop them. God forbid they don't get the hotel and plane and tickets for thousands of dollars while their salary is ~ $60K/year. They are spending 15%+ of the annual take home income on a one-week trip. It's bonkers. "Just put it on the credit card!". I think it especially pisses me off because my wife and I live very frugally. And these A-hole's spending behavior is a big part of what's driving up inflation for everyone. The entitlement of getting whatever you want whenever you want through credit has dissolved a large part of the moral base in this country that said you need to work hard and THEN you buy the nice thing. Now it's just "how can I finance this new boat?".
/rant



1654277627083.png
 

Boomer.....

Territorial Marshal
Feb 15, 2007
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OKC
Gee, wonder who could have seen this coming?

That Tom Brady NFT might not be real
Scammers are impersonating crypto celebs to sell bogus NFTs.

While crypto celebs may have grown quieter in the wake of falling prices, scammers hoping to cash in on them haven’t.

Cybersecurity firm BrandShield recently looked at scams involving a handful of crypto-loving celebs, including Paris Hilton — who says she owns 150+ NFTs — and Tom Brady, co-founder of the NFT platform Autograph.

It found that 41.5k+ NFTs on OpenSea are using unauthorized celebrity names or images.

How does the scam work?
BrandShield CEO Yoav Keren told The Hustle that scammers often create social media profiles or websites impersonating celebrities or brands. They found 2.8k+ impersonations of Tom Brady alone.

The profiles might direct fans to phishing sites or fool them into buying bogus NFTs.

But what is a bogus celebrity NFT?
“When you buy an NFT of a picture of Tom Brady, what that NFT represents is that you are the only valid owner of that picture,” Keren explained. “If someone sells you a fake one, you’re not the real owner. Someone just copied it.”

So, kind of like if someone sold you a poster of the Mona Lisa claiming it was da Vinci’s original. Except in this case, it’s a graphic image and, thus, much easier to copy than robbing the Louvre — and you can’t even hang it on your wall.

Keren thinks people fall for fake NFTs because they’re hoping it’s “the next gold rush.” But you should do your due diligence before handing over your crypto for a JPG someone pulled off Google.

https://thehustle.co/06032022-bogus-celeb-nfts/
 
Sep 6, 2012
2,810
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Edmond
I can only assume this HAS TO BE HAPPENING. Because I see people actually (happily) paying these EXTREME inflated prices for housing and vehicles right now.

I make pretty damned good money. My annual salary is easily in the 6 figure range. BUT I CAN'T AFFORD a $70k+ vehicle... apparently there are literally truckloads of people out there that can. :eek::eek::eek:
Same here in Phoenix. Wife and I make really great money, but we both drive small, reasonable used cars. The vast majority of people that are buying new trucks and sports cars must be leveraged up to their eyeballs, because it just doesn't add up with the median household income. I think the savings rate chart from earlier really tells that story - people are living ridiculously beyond their means because they have to have the latest.

Another good example of this is Disneyworld. The below shows the cost of a ticket through 2019. And the people that are going to Disneyworld can NOT afford that. But they don't let that stop them. God forbid they don't get the hotel and plane and tickets for thousands of dollars while their salary is ~ $60K/year. They are spending 15%+ of the annual take home income on a one-week trip. It's bonkers. "Just put it on the credit card!". I think it especially pisses me off because my wife and I live very frugally. And these A-hole's spending behavior is a big part of what's driving up inflation for everyone. The entitlement of getting whatever you want whenever you want through credit has dissolved a large part of the moral base in this country that said you need to work hard and THEN you buy the nice thing. Now it's just "how can I finance this new boat?".
/rant



View attachment 95867
Sadly, like the recent recession. People are in debt up to their eyeballs. Debt to income ratios are so far out of whack. I am sure most are close to or maxed out on credit cards. Will the credit card companies start reducing available credit soon?
 

Bowers2

Stackin' Joe's Cups
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Jul 31, 2006
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Edmond

kaboy42

Territorial Marshal
May 2, 2007
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Sadly, like the recent recession. People are in debt up to their eyeballs. Debt to income ratios are so far out of whack. I am sure most are close to or maxed out on credit cards. Will the credit card companies start reducing available credit soon?
For the life of me, I just can't figure out how people are paying $100k +++ for vehicles right now. Just yesterday I saw a listing for a new 2023 Tundra TRD Pro for $109k. The MSRP for this truck should max out at like $80k with absolutely every single option.

Even if a bank offered 10 years of financing, I still couldn't afford that monthly payment!:angry::angry::angry:

But somehow there are just endless amounts of people out there paying these prices.

It's just unfathomable.

I.can.not.fathom.

Craziness.:cursing:
 
Nov 6, 2010
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For the life of me, I just can't figure out how people are paying $100k +++ for vehicles right now. Just yesterday I saw a listing for a new 2023 Tundra TRD Pro for $109k. The MSRP for this truck should max out at like $80k with absolutely every single option.

Even if a bank offered 10 years of financing, I still couldn't afford that monthly payment!:angry::angry::angry:

But somehow there are just endless amounts of people out there paying these prices.

It's just unfathomable.

I.can.not.fathom.

Craziness.:cursing:

I don't think there are, or at least there won't be for long. The perfect storm of low interest rates, excess liquidity, and inventory shortages created those inflated prices. All three of those factors are reversing, and add in ever-increasing gas prices, it is going to break and roll back very soon.
 
Sep 6, 2012
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Edmond
For the life of me, I just can't figure out how people are paying $100k +++ for vehicles right now. Just yesterday I saw a listing for a new 2023 Tundra TRD Pro for $109k. The MSRP for this truck should max out at like $80k with absolutely every single option.

Even if a bank offered 10 years of financing, I still couldn't afford that monthly payment!:angry::angry::angry:

But somehow there are just endless amounts of people out there paying these prices.

It's just unfathomable.

I.can.not.fathom.

Craziness.:cursing:
I hear you. I am ultra conservative financially. I own 2 businesses and 1 of them I have a partner that is not a physical part of the business. When I bought into it and moved to OKC years ago. He had a truck payment of 1100 + (2014) and per the corporate by laws. I had to have the same. Well, I bought a new truck for the business and my payment was 515 per month. I could not for the life of me go out and buy the new raptor he had. I doubled my payments on my f150. That money was not coming out of my personal account. It was however on my personal credit. So, I had budgeted myself 500 per month on my payment and I knew that if something happens to the business, I was comfortable with the payment personally.
 

kaboy42

Territorial Marshal
May 2, 2007
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I don't think there are, or at least there won't be for long. The perfect storm of low interest rates, excess liquidity, and inventory shortages created those inflated prices. All three of those factors are reversing, and add in ever-increasing gas prices, it is going to break and roll back very soon.
I hope you are right. BUT I keep reading article after article after article that the manufacturers and the dealerships are loving how the market has forced changes in sales and inventory approaches and that they intend to make this their new model/approach to sales.

No more bloated inventories. No more incentives. Possibly even expect "made-to-order" type sales and wait on your vehicle to be manufactured... OR pay the premium for what is on the lot and get-what-you-get.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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I hope you are right. BUT I keep reading article after article after article that the manufacturers and the dealerships are loving how the market has forced changes in sales and inventory approaches and that they intend to make this their new model/approach to sales.

No more bloated inventories. No more incentives. Possibly even expect "made-to-order" type sales and wait on your vehicle to be manufactured... OR pay the premium for what is on the lot and get-what-you-get.
I don't think there is any doubt the old dealership model is going away. Everyone hates the experience and there just is no reason for it anymore. And while it will take time for that old model to unwind, it should drive enormous efficiencies for the manufacturers, which should in turn help them lower their costs, and then competition will lower the price we end up paying.
 

oks10

Federal Marshal
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Sep 9, 2007
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No more bloated inventories. No more incentives. Possibly even expect "made-to-order" type sales and wait on your vehicle to be manufactured... OR pay the premium for what is on the lot and get-what-you-get.
I personally wouldn't hate that. Just keep some on the lot for customers to test drive/see in person and then either pony up for something that's available right then and there or order exactly what you want. That's actually what I did when I ordered my car minus the test drive. Subaru was already kinda setup that way. When I negotiated price, the sales guy was up front and told me that the cars on the lot were basically priced as low as they would go but if I ordered something or caught it in transit then they could cut me a deal on it.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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I personally wouldn't hate that. Just keep some on the lot for customers to test drive/see in person and then either pony up for something that's available right then and there or order exactly what you want. That's actually what I did when I ordered my car minus the test drive. Subaru was already kinda setup that way. When I negotiated price, the sales guy was up front and told me that the cars on the lot were basically priced as low as they would go but if I ordered something or caught it in transit then they could cut me a deal on it.
I think you'll see dealerships evolve into showroom/service centers and delivery points. I've been told the dealerships make the vast majority of their money on the service side anyway, so it probably wouldn't be a bad transition for them. As this starts to evolve, the manufacturers should start getting better at predicting the demand for models/colors/options, etc, so the wait time on orders should get pretty short I would think. I think the smaller town dealerships will probably fold though.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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Might be seeing the other side of the bullwhip in a few sectors, eh?
Yea, I think so. It's why I'm glad the FED is staying methodical with interest rate hikes. The hikes need to happen for sure, and they probably did start too late, but a lot of this is going to prove to be "transitory" due to COVID disruption as Powell contended.
 

LS1 Z28

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Oct 30, 2007
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All eyes will be on the May CPI data release tomorrow. Everyone seems to be looking for signs that inflation has peaked and started to come down. That data could play a big part in determining market direction in the coming weeks.
 
Sep 6, 2012
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Edmond
I don't think there is any doubt the old dealership model is going away. Everyone hates the experience and there just is no reason for it anymore. And while it will take time for that old model to unwind, it should drive enormous efficiencies for the manufacturers, which should in turn help them lower their costs, and then competition will lower the price we end up paying.
Not to be crass, but how many times did you walk into a dealership and just say "I will take that one and I will pay full price?" The experience changes at that point.
 
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Jul 10, 2009
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Stillwater, OK
I don't think there is any doubt the old dealership model is going away. Everyone hates the experience and there just is no reason for it anymore. And while it will take time for that old model to unwind, it should drive enormous efficiencies for the manufacturers, which should in turn help them lower their costs, and then competition will lower the price we end up paying.
I think this is the way it used to be. My grandfather owned a dealership in the 50's to 70's. It was downtown and had a showroom with three new cars and there were some in the back somewhere. My grandmother drove a "demonstrator" and if someone wanted to test drive that model, they would hunt her down and take her car to be driven. There was a used car lot outside of downtown. That model makes a lot of sense. The dealership doesn't have to pay the carrying cost on a bunch of inventory, worry about hail and a whole host of other issues.
 

LS1 Z28

Territorial Marshal
Oct 30, 2007
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May inflation came in above expectations. Indices are slipping premarket on fears that this could signal the Fed has to get more aggressive to control it.