The Market Thread

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LS1 Z28

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Oct 30, 2007
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The situation with Twitter is interesting. It's now gapped down lower than it was before Elon Musk disclosed his stake in it. There's a 43% upside from here if the deal ends up going through.

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OSUCowboy787

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The situation with Twitter is interesting. It's now gapped down lower than it was before Elon Musk disclosed his stake in it. There's a 43% upside from here if the deal ends up going through.

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would be curious to see the actual legitimate numbers of users. If it comes out significantly less than what is estimated i'm not sure how the really effects the sale.
 
Oct 7, 2008
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Grocery chains not proving to be quite so inflation proof as Walmart and Target missed earnings the last two days and getting riggety wrecked. Target down 26% on earnings today, Walmart down 17% since earnings yesterday, Dollar General down 12% today in sympathy and Costco (which was way overpriced) down ~30% in the last month with earnings still to come.
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OSUCowboy787

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That crush of wealth should help with inflation. There will be a lot more people pinch back on spending based on the market and rising interest rates. Still need to turn around the price of oil/gas.
I read that the housing prices are still expected to soar since inventory will remain far less than demand. Home builders are slowing down and people are deciding to stay put with higher interest rates so anyone looking for a home is probably going to have even less options to pick from and will likely get desperate and keep paying more and more for homes.
 

jobob85

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I read that the housing prices are still expected to soar since inventory will remain far less than demand. Home builders are slowing down and people are deciding to stay put with higher interest rates so anyone looking for a home is probably going to have even less options to pick from and will likely get desperate and keep paying more and more for homes.
That will happen until the pool dries up and when mortgage rates get to upper singe digits the affordability will be gone. I don't think we will have the type of reset we had in the late 70's where car loans were in the upper 20% range and house loans were 15+. It's like an economic surgery, it hurts and is worse for a while then it gets better.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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That will happen until the pool dries up and when mortgage rates get to upper singe digits the affordability will be gone. I don't think we will have the type of reset we had in the late 70's where car loans were in the upper 20% range and house loans were 15+. It's like an economic surgery, it hurts and is worse for a while then it gets better.
I think people, especially first time buyers, are going to have to lower their standards and buy older houses and maybe in parts of town they wouldn't normally want to be in order to find affordable housing. I just don't see how they get enter the market any other way.
 

OSUCowboy787

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I think people, especially first time buyers, are going to have to lower their standards and buy older houses and maybe in parts of town they wouldn't normally want to be in order to find affordable housing. I just don't see how they get enter the market any other way.
Queue the gentrification cries. As they say 'crap rolls downhill' so if first time home buyers are buying and only able to afford those homes then what is going to happen to those below them on the economic scale? Forced to rent?? or move out to the sticks and hope they can afford to commute?
 
Nov 6, 2010
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Queue the gentrification cries. As they say 'crap rolls downhill' so if first time home buyers are buying and only able to afford those homes then what is going to happen to those below them on the economic scale? Forced to rent?? or move out to the sticks and hope they can afford to commute?
That has already been happening. Investors snap up those type properties and rent them out, and have been for some time now. I think there are going to be a higher percentage of people who will be in the rental market for quite some time.
 

steross

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https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/201..._term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog

Historically, the cost of buying a house has been positively correlated with the percent of households that own their home. During 1996 to 2006 in the United States, both the price of houses and the homeownership rate increased. This increasing trend ended abruptly with the global financial crisis, which saw house prices plunge and drove homeownership rates to historically low levels. If homeownership became less attractive in the wake of the financial crisis, we might expect both prices and homeownership to decrease. Similarly, if the current increase in house prices were driven by people buying homes to live in, we might expect the homeownership rate to increase along with prices. However, recent evidence shows that house prices and homeownership are diverging.

The graph shows that, in the wake of the financial crisis, house prices declined by over 25 percent, from an index value of around 180 to around 135. The homeownership rate also dropped from a high of over 69 percent to just over 63 percent, its lowest level since 1980. Unlike in the past, the homeownership rate continued to fall even after house prices began to recover.
 

TheMonkey

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View attachment 95704

https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/201..._term=related_resources&utm_campaign=fredblog

Historically, the cost of buying a house has been positively correlated with the percent of households that own their home. During 1996 to 2006 in the United States, both the price of houses and the homeownership rate increased. This increasing trend ended abruptly with the global financial crisis, which saw house prices plunge and drove homeownership rates to historically low levels. If homeownership became less attractive in the wake of the financial crisis, we might expect both prices and homeownership to decrease. Similarly, if the current increase in house prices were driven by people buying homes to live in, we might expect the homeownership rate to increase along with prices. However, recent evidence shows that house prices and homeownership are diverging.

The graph shows that, in the wake of the financial crisis, house prices declined by over 25 percent, from an index value of around 180 to around 135. The homeownership rate also dropped from a high of over 69 percent to just over 63 percent, its lowest level since 1980. Unlike in the past, the homeownership rate continued to fall even after house prices began to recover.
I would assume rental communities are on the rise. Corporations see homes as a good investment. Millennials aren’t as bent on ownership as previous generations.
 

Rack

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Slow travel tax shelter...The plan...Tell me what is wrong with this...if anything?

After building 70% equity in a home, sell it. Don't replace it. no tax on gain
Sell paid off cars at their highest prices in history for cars. Don't replace them. no tax on gain
Then one would only need insurance for healthcare and buy travel health care insurance for about 1/2 rates or qualify for very low-cost Obama care due to no taxable income for a few years (Real estate equity cash).
Less than $500K capital gain...so no taxes on former personal residence sale? even if used to finance life abroad?
Live in month long airbnb's and vbro's to get good rates mostly in Europe and also Asia and other places move enough to be able to re-enter Europe every 180 days stay to avoid needing a visa anywhere (just passport travel) Stay mostly out of usa except for a few months a year to visit family. Start a couple on-line business if wanted.

Possible? Would one get earned income tax credit legally with this plan? possible, or does semi high net worth disqualify a person?
maintain US citizenship but pay virtually no taxes until one gets to 62.5 and can draw SS?
Leave 401K's and stock investments completely alone for five years in order to re-enter US housing market when SS age is reached.

Would this work? Why or why not?
 
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