The Market Thread

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TheMonkey

Territorial Marshal
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I'm not differentiating. The point I'm making is that investors, in whatever form, typically do cash transactions, where your traditional home buyers need a mortgage. That's a big factor in closing the deal. As a seller, if you have two equal offers on the table, one cash and the other pending appraisal, loan approval, inspections, etc, which one are you going to take?? That in itself drives up prices, because a family that really wants a home is inclined to offer above market just to be considered. Not sure how rising rates will affect that dynamic.
Yes. You’re right. I know young couples who can’t compete with cash offers because the bank won’t lend above asking price.

Reading that article brings up some other points in my mind.
  1. Millennials entering the home buying market should continue to support price increases.
  2. But what happens if the market dips and investors get spooked? Will they dump the houses in order to meet margin calls, causing a oversupply and depressing the market even further?
 
Nov 6, 2010
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Yes. You’re right. I know young couples who can’t compete with cash offers because the bank won’t lend above asking price.

Reading that article brings up some other points in my mind.
  1. Millennials entering the home buying market should continue to support price increases.
  2. But what happens if the market dips and investors get spooked? Will they dump the houses in order to meet margin calls, causing a oversupply and depressing the market even further?
From what I can tell, the investors have a bit of a built in hedge. If the market dips in a particular area, they put the properties on the rental market and develop a nice revenue stream to support the extremely low cost of their invested money. If prices spike in a particular market, they flip the property at a nice profit.
 

jobob85

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Every boom has it’s nuances but simple economics still rule. In 2007 we lent 110% of appraised value. Now it’s low interest and liquidity, still supply/demand will rule however we get there.
 

steross

he/him
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Every boom has it’s nuances but simple economics still rule. In 2007 we lent 110% of appraised value. Now it’s low interest and liquidity, still supply/demand will rule however we get there.
Every boom has its list of reasons that the boom must continue that seem to disappear when the boom does.
I heard so many times living in Las Vegas during the pre-GFC boom that 20% a year house price increases were OK because-
-Vegas is recession-proof because of gambling.
-Vegas is a valley and it is running out of room for all the people that want to live there.
-Californians will always move to Vegas and pay up.

Then they had the crash and the value of my house dropped nearly in half. Luckily, I was already long gone by then.
 

kenny41

Territorial Marshal
Aug 28, 2006
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This is what needs to be watched IMO. If I'm right, then the Cali housing market is probably going to really suffer, and the interest rate hikes might be the catalyst. Between work from home, tax policy, drought, the aggressive courting of California businesses by Texas, etc, I don't think you can compare previous relocation trends to what is happening now, but maybe I'm wrong. If I am, then yes, I agree with the previous poster that there is definitely a bubble.
There is a decrease in population over the last few years, not sure where most of those 700,000 have fled to.
The Ground. Our death rate is much higher since 2020. Not just Covid, but Covid is a big part of it.
 
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Time to go shopping! Thought I would post a list of quality (and some risky) stocks trading at a significant discount to their Morningstar fair value estimate. With the stealth crash in tech and growth over the last 6 months that's where the deals are to be had these days. I would say at most these stocks have 20% downside and I only posted companies with 50% plus upside. Plenty of others out there trading at 30-40% discounts to their fair value. Love Morningstar because they're about the only ones who don't move their FVE based on where the stock is trading.

TSM - $97/share FVE at $179
Polaris - $105/share FVE at $184
Sony - $90/share FVE at $133
ET - $11/share FVE at $16.50 (plus 6% dividend and growing)
TDOC - $67/share FVE at $210 (my fave)
PINS - $22/share FVE at $60
TLRY - $6/share FVE at $14
LAC - $29/share FVE at $45
RBLX - $43/share FVE at $100
SOFI - $7.50/share FVE at $17
VWAGY - $22/share FVE at $38
FORD - $15/share FVE at $24
BYND - $43/share FVE at $98
OKTA - $143/share FVE at $280
LRCX - $466/share FVE at $720
FB/META - $214/share FVE at $400
ETSY - $112/share FVE at $221
CRM - $195/share FVE at $320
SAM - $376/share FVE at $750
 
Last edited:
Mar 11, 2006
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Time to go shopping! Thought I would post a list of quality (and some risky) stocks trading at a significant discount to their Morningstar fair value estimate. With the stealth crash in tech and growth over the last 6 months that's where the deals are to be had these days. I would say at most these stocks have 20% downside and I only posted companies with 50% plus upside. Plenty of others out there trading at 30-40% discounts to their fair value. Love Morningstar because they're about the only ones who don't move their FVE based on where the stock is trading.

TSM - $97/share FVE at $179
Polaris - $105/share FVE at $184
Sony - $90/share FVE at $133
ET - $11/share FVE at $16.50 (plus 6% dividend and growing)
TDOC - $67/share FVE at $210 (my fave)
PINS - $22/share FVE at $60
TLRY - $6/share FVE at $14
LAC - $29/share FVE at $45
RBLX - $43/share FVE at $100
SOFI - $7.50/share FVE at $17
VWAGY - $22/share FVE at $38
FORD - $15/share FVE at $24
BYND - $43/share FVE at $98
OKTA - $143/share FVE at $280
LRCX - $466/share FVE at $720
FB/META - $214/share FVE at $400
Do you know much about TDOC? I've been working more and more recently on connectivity solutions for telehealth, but not specifically any interfacing with TDOC. I agree that the telehealth market is ripe for growth and would like to learn more about which companies are leading in that space.
 
Oct 7, 2008
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Do you know much about TDOC? I've been working more and more recently on connectivity solutions for telehealth, but not specifically any interfacing with TDOC. I agree that the telehealth market is ripe for growth and would like to learn more about which companies are leading in that space.
Ha, I'm in the same boat working with a telehealth-adjacent company. TDOC nearly doubled revenue from 2020-2021, user base exploded during Covid and has stagnated since but those using it are doing so more frequently (total visits increased 38% from 2020-2021), revenue per user is increasing, solid balance sheet with not too much short-term debt. Projecting another 25-30% revenue growth for 2022. Here's their most recent ER https://www.globenewswire.com/news-...ourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2021-Results.html
 
Nov 6, 2010
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Ha, I'm in the same boat working with a telehealth-adjacent company. TDOC nearly doubled revenue from 2020-2021, user base exploded during Covid and has stagnated since but those using it are doing so more frequently (total visits increased 38% from 2020-2021), revenue per user is increasing, solid balance sheet with not too much short-term debt. Projecting another 25-30% revenue growth for 2022. Here's their most recent ER https://www.globenewswire.com/news-...ourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2021-Results.html
Looking at your Teledoc now, down to $57 today. Looks pretty appealing.
 

Bowers2

Stackin' Joe's Cups
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We're likely in for a recession as central banks try to rein in inflation. But as one of my favorite finance websites says, it's better than the alternative.

The Fed (and other global central banks) will be able to knock down inflation with high enough interest rates and lots of QT. That will do the job. With their HUGE balance sheets that they can unload, they’re uniquely positioned to knock down demand enough to kill inflation. Right now, they’re trying to do this more or less gently and slowly. So this is going to drag out for years.
What they will likely not be able to do is avoid a recession. And a real recession that cleans out the excesses and gets rid of the overhang of corporate debt and gets rid of corporate zombies would be a good thing and would allow the economy to refresh.
A recession lasts a few quarters, and the economy is better off afterwards. Inflation is a terrible thing, can last for many years, and can have devastating consequences for a generation or longer.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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I snagged some shares when it dropped to sub $50 a few weeks ago. Added more yesterday. Hoping it'll drop back below $50 so I can grab some more. These are the times that DCA'ing was made for.
I just reloaded with $5k. Will probably watch the carnage Monday and start picking around. Definitely going to add this one. Starting to wonder if the party is over for Nvidia and time to sell on the next uptick. May dump Raytheon too.
 
Oct 7, 2008
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Big time ouch! They're ravaging my boy TDOC. Had a goodwill impairment charge of $6.6 billion on the Livongo acquisition and down 35% after hours. Time to assess the carnage and figure out what to do from here.