The Market Thread

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bleedinorange

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Jan 11, 2010
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Yeah but as mentioned Intel is making a massive investment in new manufacturing sites (foundries) and that is likely going to catapult them up. AMD does not do most of their own production, they rely on others for that so it will limit them.
I bought 100 shares of AMD in '18 at $21+. It's trading today at $132ish. Intel was $37 five years ago and is trading at $54ish. I like my 6 banger position. I would not even have a double with intel.
 

osupsycho

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I bought 100 shares of AMD in '18 at $21+. It's trading today at $132ish. Intel was $37 five years ago and is trading at $54ish. I like my 6 banger position. I would not even have a double with intel.
Yeah I agree that AMD was the play back then. They came back into the enterprise market and were a huge disruptive force at that time. I just wish I was not reluctant to make buys on my own knowledge at the time. But looking forward from this point I don't think they are the correct pick as Intel figured out they had competition and made moves that should pay off in the future.
 

osupsycho

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Also I am not sure if I have mentioned it but datacenter sales has been my life and career for the last 16 years so I have seen quite a bit from the inside of things.
 

bleedinorange

Federal Marshal
Jan 11, 2010
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Also I am not sure if I have mentioned it but datacenter sales has been my life and career for the last 16 years so I have seen quite a bit from the inside of things.
Yeah, understood. I just have a smallish account I mess with (about 17 stocks) but 90% of my portfolio is with a real financial analyst like you. I could fill this page with my screwups.

But hey, they sounded good at the time. :)
 
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jobob85

Drunkle
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Mar 11, 2009
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Yeah I agree that AMD was the play back then. They came back into the enterprise market and were a huge disruptive force at that time. I just wish I was not reluctant to make buys on my own knowledge at the time. But looking forward from this point I don't think they are the correct pick as Intel figured out they had competition and made moves that should pay off in the future.
Intel's moves are a very positive step but still not a definite. If you are willing to be patient, picking up some shares now is probably not a bad long term play. AMD is sporting a very impressive revenue growth rate right now and until Intel comes back (2 years for a plant to get on line), I think AMD is the near term play. Of course right now tech is getting a PE reality check. On a numbers only analysis I like QCOM in the Tech sector.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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Intel's moves are a very positive step but still not a definite. If you are willing to be patient, picking up some shares now is probably not a bad long term play. AMD is sporting a very impressive revenue growth rate right now and until Intel comes back (2 years for a plant to get on line), I think AMD is the near term play. Of course right now tech is getting a PE reality check. On a numbers only analysis I like QCOM in the Tech sector.
Nice dividends help with patience.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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It's priced in until it happens. If, and I expect something close, the fed goes for a full point over the next year the market will probably end up lower than where it is now. It's not necessarily a bad thing as long as it's not a major correction (greater than 20%). Just my 2 cents. I plan to get to about 25 - 30% in cash to hedge against a correction.
Ok Nostradamus, nice call. But do you think the latest bloodletting is just from FED talk or something more?? Seems like we're heading for one of those 20-25% real corrections, and that seems pretty extreme for just a standard FED announcement.
 

jobob85

Drunkle
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Ok Nostradamus, nice call. But do you think the latest bloodletting is just from FED talk or something more?? Seems like we're heading for one of those 20-25% real corrections, and that seems pretty extreme for just a standard FED announcement.
Fed talk doesn’t help. Tech was way out in front of itself as a sector and the home based tech like Pelaton, Zoom, etc. had unsustainable growth. Talks of tech antitrust, 10 year yields heading to 2% are also focusing funds away from the market.

Now, the last three corrections have been V recoveries and 1-2 years peak to peak. If there is a major correction I expect the same unless the fed slams on the brakes. For that reason I keep 3 years of cash on hand at all times so I don’t have to sell in a down market. Being retired has made me increase my cash percentage.

I’ve never been much of a home run investor, I just try to squeeze a little extra out of the market. If I have something double in a year or less I’ll take the gain or at least sell half and play with house money. This latest crypto/tech run has produced plenty of new “experts”. That’s usually a sign for me to get defensive.

The market is as much about human nature as it is about financial analysis. Fear and greed are big factors. When all the new market players start seeing their gains erode you see big price drops. These late day sell offs are are sign to me a lot of investors don’t have confidence in the market.

Disclaimer: I’m just some guy on the internet my comments are for entertainment purposes only and not intended to be a recommendation for or against any particular strategy.;)
 
Nov 6, 2010
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Fed talk doesn’t help. Tech was way out in front of itself as a sector and the home based tech like Pelaton, Zoom, etc. had unsustainable growth. Talks of tech antitrust, 10 year yields heading to 2% are also focusing funds away from the market.

Now, the last three corrections have been V recoveries and 1-2 years peak to peak. If there is a major correction I expect the same unless the fed slams on the brakes. For that reason I keep 3 years of cash on hand at all times so I don’t have to sell in a down market. Being retired has made me increase my cash percentage.

I’ve never been much of a home run investor, I just try to squeeze a little extra out of the market. If I have something double in a year or less I’ll take the gain or at least sell half and play with house money. This latest crypto/tech run has produced plenty of new “experts”. That’s usually a sign for me to get defensive.

The market is as much about human nature as it is about financial analysis. Fear and greed are big factors. When all the new market players start seeing their gains erode you see big price drops. These late day sell offs are are sign to me a lot of investors don’t have confidence in the market.

Disclaimer: I’m just some guy on the internet my comments are for entertainment purposes only and not intended to be a recommendation for or against any particular strategy.;)
How do you define major correction?
 
Nov 6, 2010
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A lot of individual tech stocks have already seen this type correction. A good example is NVIDIA. I may take a position to hold long term if they go much lower.
Yea, they ran up so much it seems 30% doesn't mean as much, but they are so tempting to double down on.
 

steross

he/him
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Ok Nostradamus, nice call. But do you think the latest bloodletting is just from FED talk or something more?? Seems like we're heading for one of those 20-25% real corrections, and that seems pretty extreme for just a standard FED announcement.
Why does it seem to you that we are heading toward a large correction?
 

Bowers2

Stackin' Joe's Cups
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A lot of individual tech stocks have already seen this type correction. A good example is NVIDIA. I may take a position to hold long term if they go much lower.
They're my heaviest position and now I feel like George Costanza. I'm staying in and going down with the ship!