The Market Thread

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Nov 6, 2010
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I'm not sinking my life savings into it but it's definitely been better than earning pennies of interest in savings...
I guess I just don't understand the fundamental difference in crypto currency and electronic funds transfer that has been happening for years now. I get that Bitcoin is not tied to any government entity, but I still don't understand how it is attained or created, and therefore cleared and validated. Obviously, some people do and it's rocketing, but I just can't get my head around it.
 

oks10

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Sep 9, 2007
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I guess I just don't understand the fundamental difference in crypto currency and electronic funds transfer that has been happening for years now. I get that Bitcoin is not tied to any government entity, but I still don't understand how it is attained or created, and therefore cleared and validated. Obviously, some people do and it's rocketing, but I just can't get my head around it.
I dont fully understand it either but I'm definitely benefiting from it. lol
 

Bowers2

Stackin' Joe's Cups
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Jul 31, 2006
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It is very interesting that AAPL had blow-out earnings (how does a $2 trillion market cap company have a 54% increase in revenues?) yet their stock, despite basing since August and looking poised for a huge breakout, has actually dropped a little since earnings.

AMZN today also had crazy good earnings. And, yet despite being up 3% pre-market, is also starting the day paring that back and is now up a little over 1%.

Have we gone from an ignore-bad-news-because-things-will-get-better and the Fed will protect us to a good-news-is-already-priced-in type market?
It feels like the economy is in a holding pattern until the pandemic takes what hopefully is its final downturn. NYC will be fully re-opened in June or July. I can't remember which. I'm sure we'll see other cities and states do the same in the mean time. If Fauci is correct and we see a turning point in the next few weeks, I think we'll start to see the market really take off. Of course I'm a dumbass, so who can say.
 

bleedinorange

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Jan 11, 2010
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It feels like the economy is in a holding pattern until the pandemic takes what hopefully is its final downturn. NYC will be fully re-opened in June or July. I can't remember which. I'm sure we'll see other cities and states do the same in the mean time. If Fauci is correct and we see a turning point in the next few weeks, I think we'll start to see the market really take off. Of course I'm a dumbass, so who can say.
I agree with the bolded part.
 

Bowers2

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I agree with the bolded part.
The only thing holding it back are the widespread supply chain and commodity shortage concerns. The people will be ready to run, but how long will it take for the lumber, computer chip, food, etc shortages to ease the bottleneck of an economy we'll have? Prices may be higher for months until we can bring supply chains back on line from the pandemic.
 

bleedinorange

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Jan 11, 2010
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The only thing holding it back are the widespread supply chain and commodity shortage concerns. The people will be ready to run, but how long will it take for the lumber, computer chip, food, etc shortages to ease the bottleneck of an economy we'll have? Prices may be higher for months until we can bring supply chains back on line from the pandemic.
Honestly, I think lumber and supply chain shortages will take 18 months to 2 years to correct. That said, the need for durable goods will continue to accelerate due to the shortages so there's money to be made. I put some money on a couple of chip manufacturers (LRCX, ASML, and Applied Materials) recently due to the massive shortages there. Well see how it works.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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The only thing holding it back are the widespread supply chain and commodity shortage concerns. The people will be ready to run, but how long will it take for the lumber, computer chip, food, etc shortages to ease the bottleneck of an economy we'll have? Prices may be higher for months until we can bring supply chains back on line from the pandemic.
This seems to be the argument the Fed is making right now against there being any substantial inflation. It will be interesting to see if once supply catches up if that holds true. I don't believe it will.
 

okstate987

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Oct 17, 2009
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The only thing holding it back are the widespread supply chain and commodity shortage concerns. The people will be ready to run, but how long will it take for the lumber, computer chip, food, etc shortages to ease the bottleneck of an economy we'll have? Prices may be higher for months until we can bring supply chains back on line from the pandemic.
We have a lot more concerns than that. Primarily the sharp increase in government and corporate debt. This easy money is causing prices to rise on a large number of things. Some are calling the current phenomenon the "everything bubble".
 

Bowers2

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We have a lot more concerns than that. Primarily the sharp increase in government and corporate debt. This easy money is causing prices to rise on a large number of things. Some are calling the current phenomenon the "everything bubble".
I don't know if it makes it any better or easier to mitigate, but hasn't both corporate and government debt pretty much been going one place, the Fed's balance sheet? They've been loading the hell up on treasuries and corporate bonds.
 

okstate987

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Oct 17, 2009
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I don't know if it makes it any better or easier to mitigate, but hasn't both corporate and government debt pretty much been going one place, the Fed's balance sheet? They've been loading the hell up on treasuries and corporate bonds.
They are going to have to monetize the debt pretty soon. Get ready for when that happens.
 

jobob85

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Mar 11, 2009
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Damian Woody interview on CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report today was great. Great stock insight form a former NFL great.
 

jobob85

Drunkle
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Mar 11, 2009
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Here's a link since jobob is too old and sucks at this internet stuff and needs a youngster like me to help out:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nf...dy-reveals-whats-in-his-portfolio/vi-BB1gobIT
Thanks. All those things you said about me are true. Also I posted just after the interview and didn’t figure it was up yet.

I know athletes can be role models to young minorities, I really wish it could be for financial acumen and not just sports. Alex Rodriguez is another financially literate athlete.
 

steross

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Mar 31, 2004
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Thanks. All those things you said about me are true. Also I posted just after the interview and didn’t figure it was up yet.

I know athletes can be role models to young minorities, I really wish it could be for financial acumen and not just sports. Alex Rodriguez is another financially literate athlete.
David Robinson.

and Okung asking for half his pay in BTC which seemed crazy to me at the time but has probably gained him my lifetime earnings or more.
 

jobob85

Drunkle
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Mar 11, 2009
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David Robinson.

and Okung asking for half his pay in BTC which seemed crazy to me at the time but has probably gained him my lifetime earnings or more.
The Okung thing is still crazy to me.

I really wish these former athletes could have more influence on the young and impressionable. Probably need to teach finance in high school as a required course.
 

jobob85

Drunkle
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Mar 11, 2009
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Copper...copper is the future. Well at least for the near future. Expecting demand to outstrip supply and excess inventories. We all know what happens when demand exceeds supply.

I feel like the guy giving Dustin Hoffman advice in the Graduate.
 

bleedinorange

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Jan 11, 2010
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Copper...copper is the future. Well at least for the near future. Expecting demand to outstrip supply and excess inventories. We all know what happens when demand exceeds supply.

I feel like the guy giving Dustin Hoffman advice in the Graduate.
I knew saving all my pennys would eventually pay off big! Don't hate me because I'm rich.........peasants.
 
Oct 7, 2008
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Copper...copper is the future. Well at least for the near future. Expecting demand to outstrip supply and excess inventories. We all know what happens when demand exceeds supply.

I feel like the guy giving Dustin Hoffman advice in the Graduate.
Thinking about adding some steel to my portfolio for the next few years.