Talent issue?

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Jan 13, 2008
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#21
2013 Signing Class Star percentage:
5 star: 0.01%
4 star: 0.13%
3 star: 0.44%
2 star: 0.62%
Unrank: 98.88%

Using 2018 class size 300k:
5 star: 30
4 star: 380
3 star: 1328
2 star: 1859
Unrank: 296,403

So the percentage of each star ranking drafted into the NFL.
5 star: 63.3%
4 star: 19.2%
3 star: 8.3%
2 star: 1.7%
Unrank: 0.007%

Seems about right. You can argue that this isn't the actual representation of this particular draft class, but that would be talking about making small shifts in %'s and not changing the overall increased likelihood of being drafted if you had more stars. In other words, every year a higher % of the 5 star players eligible for the draft get drafted.

As for some players leaving early and getting drafted in a different recruiting class. There should be some balance to the leave earlies, because the rules haven't changed recently.

A bigger study I read had the number around 52% of 5-star players get drafted, however this study used players from 2002-2008 and looked at the length of their NFL career. I think recruiting evaluation has improved a little over the last 15 years.
 

PokeJ

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Oct 27, 2003
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#22
2013 Signing Class Star percentage:
5 star: 0.01%
4 star: 0.13%
3 star: 0.44%
2 star: 0.62%
Unrank: 98.88%

Using 2018 class size 300k:
5 star: 30
4 star: 380
3 star: 1328
2 star: 1859
Unrank: 296,403

So the percentage of each star ranking drafted into the NFL.
5 star: 63.3%
4 star: 19.2%
3 star: 8.3%
2 star: 1.7%
Unrank: 0.007%

Seems about right. You can argue that this isn't the actual representation of this particular draft class, but that would be talking about making small shifts in %'s and not changing the overall increased likelihood of being drafted if you had more stars. In other words, every year a higher % of the 5 star players eligible for the draft get drafted.

As for some players leaving early and getting drafted in a different recruiting class. There should be some balance to the leave earlies, because the rules haven't changed recently.

A bigger study I read had the number around 52% of 5-star players get drafted, however this study used players from 2002-2008 and looked at the length of their NFL career. I think recruiting evaluation has improved a little over the last 15 years.
Thanks for doing the leg work. So basically the 5 Star is close to a sure thing.


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Jan 13, 2008
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#23
Thanks for doing the leg work. So basically the 5 Star is close to a sure thing.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
I would be curious to know what % that don't get drafted had serious injuries in college.

There are also some 5 stars that don't get drafted and still end up in the league after continuing to work (Tyron Johnson LSU and OSU).

The OL position had the lowest percentage (30%), probably because these kids are not done growing at 18 years old.
 

OrangeFan69

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#24
The Big 12 is a good conference. But it's not elite, and it's not trying to be elite.

Oklahoma State has an identity problem and even though I like what I saw at the Orange-Black game. The Big 12 is a dying conference and we need to move if we want to elevate to elite status. If there was a way to get the SEC to take us and/or either Iowa State/Kansas State/Kansas/ Baylor/ Texas Tech/TCU I feel it would upset the apple cart in a very positive way for us and signal to recruits we are ready and willing to be compete with the elite.
 

OkstateKerr

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Jan 13, 2005
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#25
The Big 12 is a good conference. But it's not elite, and it's not trying to be elite.

Oklahoma State has an identity problem and even though I like what I saw at the Orange-Black game. The Big 12 is a dying conference and we need to move if we want to elevate to elite status. If there was a way to get the SEC to take us and/or either Iowa State/Kansas State/Kansas/ Baylor/ Texas Tech/TCU I feel it would upset the apple cart in a very positive way for us and signal to recruits we are ready and willing to be compete with the elite.
SEC isn’t taking us over OU. The only way we go the SEC is if it’s us and OU. Though they would probably take OU/Texas if they are only taking two teams
 

OrangeFan69

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#26
SEC isn’t taking us over OU. The only way we go the SEC is if it’s us and OU. Though they would probably take OU/Texas if they are only taking two teams
I don;t think Oklahoma is as thirsty to leave the Big 12. I feel they want to be the big fish in the small pond. I also don't think the SEC wants new schools in the same market. There may be an exception for the state of Texas - Of Course A&M would lose their mud if UT was offered into the SEC (although UT's television contract is an albatross of for the Big 12 and I'm confident the SEC wouldn't allow that garbage.)