Russia invades Ukraine

  • You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.

Birry

Federal Marshal
Feb 6, 2007
14,077
7,463
1,743
Landlocked
Based on what we've seen from their current attempts, I have a suspicion that Russia neither possesses the capability or the resolve to launch a full nuclear assault on the world. I also believe that our defenses and methods are probably such that we could neutralize such an assault prior to or during the attack. There is a strong possibility that we have been working for decades to infiltrate or find backdoor means to prevent such global destruction even if Putin decided to "push the button".

I choose to believe that the U.S. and other countries are no longer relying on MAD for defense, even if that is the public understanding.

I also wonder if leadership within Russia would even follow through with orders to launch should Putin attempt it.

Do we really believe that if Putin launched nukes that the U.S. and others would just launch back and destroy the world? I just feel like we're beyond that scenario in 2022.
 

okstate987

Territorial Marshal
A/V Subscriber
Oct 17, 2009
9,772
5,459
1,743
Somewhere
Based on what we've seen from their current attempts, I have a suspicion that Russia neither possesses the capability or the resolve to launch a full nuclear assault on the world. I also believe that our defenses and methods are probably such that we could neutralize such an assault prior to or during the attack. There is a strong possibility that we have been working for decades to infiltrate or find backdoor means to prevent such global destruction even if Putin decided to "push the button".

I choose to believe that the U.S. and other countries are no longer relying on MAD for defense, even if that is the public understanding.

I also wonder if leadership within Russia would even follow through with orders to launch should Putin attempt it.

Do we really believe that if Putin launched nukes that the U.S. and others would just launch back and destroy the world? I just feel like we're beyond that scenario in 2022.
Russia has an estimated 8000-12000 nuclear weapons. Even if only 1/10th are operational, that is an existential threat to the US and the rest of the world.

I wouldn't downplay the ramifications if nukes start flying. It would likely be the end of human civilization.
 

Birry

Federal Marshal
Feb 6, 2007
14,077
7,463
1,743
Landlocked
Russia has an estimated 8000-12000 nuclear weapons. Even if only 1/10th are operational, that is an existential threat to the US and the rest of the world.

I wouldn't downplay the ramifications if nukes start flying. It would likely be the end of human civilization.
I must have more faith in the non-Russian response to such a launch. If this was the 1950's, maybe I'd be more concerned. But we have had decades of preparing for this, and I seriously doubt we're leaving global defense to chance. I know for a fact that we have defenses capable of repelling ICBMs at some rate. Not sure if it could defeat every warhead if Russia launched their entire arsenal, but I'm betting that there's a way better response than MAD these days.

I'm also using our latest data point (war in Ukraine) as a basis. Given the vast disparity between the perception and reality of their ground, air, and surface sea forces, it seems reasonable that their nuclear capabilities could be in question.
 
May 4, 2011
4,128
1,769
1,743
Charleston, SC
I must have more faith in the non-Russian response to such a launch. If this was the 1950's, maybe I'd be more concerned. But we have had decades of preparing for this, and I seriously doubt we're leaving global defense to chance. I know for a fact that we have defenses capable of repelling ICBMs at some rate. Not sure if it could defeat every warhead if Russia launched their entire arsenal, but I'm betting that there's a way better response than MAD these days.

I'm also using our latest data point (war in Ukraine) as a basis. Given the vast disparity between the perception and reality of their ground, air, and surface sea forces, it seems reasonable that their nuclear capabilities could be in question.
I'd have to imagine accidental detonation before/during launch would be on that list of things that could go wrong if their maintenance has been that bad.
 

okstate987

Territorial Marshal
A/V Subscriber
Oct 17, 2009
9,772
5,459
1,743
Somewhere
I must have more faith in the non-Russian response to such a launch. If this was the 1950's, maybe I'd be more concerned. But we have had decades of preparing for this, and I seriously doubt we're leaving global defense to chance. I know for a fact that we have defenses capable of repelling ICBMs at some rate. Not sure if it could defeat every warhead if Russia launched their entire arsenal, but I'm betting that there's a way better response than MAD these days.

I'm also using our latest data point (war in Ukraine) as a basis. Given the vast disparity between the perception and reality of their ground, air, and surface sea forces, it seems reasonable that their nuclear capabilities could be in question.
Their nuclear forces are by far the most well funded portion of their military. The success rate for intercepting icbm's is not good. What we have is fine for NK when they have a half dozen or so. Not a conflict with a near peer nuclear force. Even a couple getting through would be catastrophic, and way more than that would.

Its a good thing you are nowhere near our decisionmakers on this, just like its good you are nowhere close to our football coaches. You're a bad ideas machine.
 

steross

he/him
A/V Subscriber
Mar 31, 2004
33,677
33,483
1,743
oklahoma city
Ukrainians arent sitting around with their thumbs up their ass completing diversity trainings. They are being trained to KILL Russians and they are doing a damn good job of it. If these "trainings" were so important to the success on the battlefield, then why are we not forcing them to do it.
Who do you think has been training the Ukrainian military leadership for years? This is training at an academy, not on the battlefield. Nobody said this was the key to victory. But, it shows they levels we go to in order to be the best.

Just keep digging, you are making your lack of experience more obvious with each post.