OSU at DBU Tuesday

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Cro

we need some celery and a can of fake snow
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Yes, he missed. He missed bad and hung it. But the point is he had not thrown a slider to that point and that is not his strength. If you are going to get beat, you get beat on your best pitch, not a secondary one, especially when you haven’t thrown one, and especially not the first pitch. Just a poor job of pitch calling.
he had thrown one.....
 
Aug 13, 2005
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Ptak'sNewspaper

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Also, just a college baseball note. Tennessee still #1 in RPI, with Oregon State #2. Looking at the overall numbers, if I were doing a poll I would definitely put Oregon State #1 in the country right now, and Tennessee #2. Oregon St. played the #17 nonconference schedule in the country, while Tennessee's ranks above 200, that's really bad. Oregon St. has only 3 more losses total than Tennessee. Also, looking at Tennessee's entire schedule, they have not had to run through the gauntlet that is the usual SEC schedule. Sweeps over Ole Miss (why do they continue to get to use that name, along with Rebs, these days? That's beyond me...), Vandy, and Florida just don't carry the same weight this year. These are very good teams, but not the juggernauts we're used to them being (well, Ole Miss is never a juggernaut, but very good usually).

I'm definitely not saying that Tennessee is overrated though. They are a juggernaut, I just feel like Oregon State is right there with them. They are clearly the two best teams in the country.

As for us, I'm not convinced we're the #3 team in the country, but at the same time there is no one who deserves the ranking more than us. I really see all of the following teams on the exact same plane.

Oklahoma State
Miami
Virginia
Louisville
Virginia Tech
Notre Dame
Georgia
Auburn
Maryland
Southern Miss
Texas A&M
Florida State
Arkansas
Stanford
Gonzaga


There's just not much separation among all of those teams. They are all very good and capable of beating anyone in the country in a super regional, but they all have very noticeable warts as well (it's college baseball, that's to be expected).

Anyway, long post, but I really enjoy college baseball, especially this time of year.
 
Mar 17, 2006
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Also, just a college baseball note. Tennessee still #1 in RPI, with Oregon State #2. Looking at the overall numbers, if I were doing a poll I would definitely put Oregon State #1 in the country right now, and Tennessee #2. Oregon St. played the #17 nonconference schedule in the country, while Tennessee's ranks above 200, that's really bad. Oregon St. has only 3 more losses total than Tennessee. Also, looking at Tennessee's entire schedule, they have not had to run through the gauntlet that is the usual SEC schedule. Sweeps over Ole Miss (why do they continue to get to use that name, along with Rebs, these days? That's beyond me...), Vandy, and Florida just don't carry the same weight this year. These are very good teams, but not the juggernauts we're used to them being (well, Ole Miss is never a juggernaut, but very good usually).

I'm definitely not saying that Tennessee is overrated though. They are a juggernaut, I just feel like Oregon State is right there with them. They are clearly the two best teams in the country.

As for us, I'm not convinced we're the #3 team in the country, but at the same time there is no one who deserves the ranking more than us. I really see all of the following teams on the exact same plane.

Oklahoma State
Miami
Virginia
Louisville
Virginia Tech
Notre Dame
Georgia
Auburn
Maryland
Southern Miss
Texas A&M
Florida State
Arkansas
Stanford
Gonzaga


There's just not much separation among all of those teams. They are all very good and capable of beating anyone in the country in a super regional, but they all have very noticeable warts as well (it's college baseball, that's to be expected).

Anyway, long post, but I really enjoy college baseball, especially this time of year.
Great break down. You've been on here for a long time so you know that I can be critical (especially of the plate approach), but I have to say I am so impressed with this team for the last month. I really think they are deserving of their ranking. We know that its all about how you finish, and not how you play in late April, but if the team we've seen lately is who they have become, they have a real chance.
 

Takeout Slide

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Putting the #3 RPI team in the same regional as the #3 overall seed is a joke.
As I understand it, the regional placements are largely geographic - as much as possible - after the top 16. So maybe Texas State could come to Stillwater, but given that they are projecting 4 2 seeds from the B12, the options are limited.

And, truth be told, I'd rather get DBU than some of those other 2 seeds. They have a nice RPI, but look at their weekend results.
 
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Putting the #3 RPI team in the same regional as the #3 overall seed is a joke.
As I understand it, the regional placements are largely geographic - as much as possible - after the top 16. So maybe Texas State could come to Stillwater, but given that they are projecting 4 2 seeds from the B12, the options are limited.

And, truth be told, I'd rather get DBU than some of those other 2 seeds. They have a nice RPI, but look at their weekend results.
Yep, I would love DBU as a 2 seed in a Stillwater regional.


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Takeout Slide

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You could certainly argue that UCLA would be the most talented 3 seed in the tournament too. They’ve struggled with inconsistency but they have a lot of talent.
That's the team that would scare me the most. Like an NC State from last year, or OSU in 2016. Hitting their ceiling just in time to go win someone else's regional and super. (Edit: I'd have that same feeling if I was Oregon State and drew Tech as a 2 seed. I think these Big 12 teams are going to make some noise in the regionals. Nobody in the league so far has been consistently great, but everyone has been pretty good and have shown flashes of being really good.)

On your earlier post, as a college baseball junkie, I'm loving this season and all the chaos. These regional projections could literally change completely (minus Tennessee or Oregon State as you said) over the next two weeks. Are we really going to see a 20ish RPI team (Arkansas currently at 23) get a top 8 seed? And what is the committee going to do with DBU, Ga Southern, etc. if they are top 10 RPI but don't win their conferences?
 
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They have 5 SEC and only 1 Big 12 Regional. Some of the other projections have OSU, TCU, TT, and Texas hosting Regional and one has DBU hosting a regional. SEC probably ends up with 3 and Big 12 with 2 or 3 Regionals.
 

MT Cowboy

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As I understand it, the regional placements are largely geographic - as much as possible - after the top 16. So maybe Texas State could come to Stillwater, but given that they are projecting 4 2 seeds from the B12, the options are limited.

And, truth be told, I'd rather get DBU than some of those other 2 seeds. They have a nice RPI, but look at their weekend results.
Not to mention we're 1-1 against them this season, with at least that loss last night being a Johnny all-staff type game with a few uncharacteristic errors on our part, a few stellar borderline lucky plays on their end, and had to get the benefit of a HARD strike zone squeeze in the 9th. Against our weekend pitching staff and top-end lineup? I like our chances to take any games against DBU.
 

Takeout Slide

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They have 5 SEC and only 1 Big 12 Regional. Some of the other projections have OSU, TCU, TT, and Texas hosting Regional and one has DBU hosting a regional. SEC probably ends up with 3 and Big 12 with 2 or 3 Regionals.
Not saying it won't happen (though I think 2 is probably more likely than 3 depending on what happens at the Big 12 tourney), but the traditional metrics really aren't in anyone's favor right now, save OSU.

IIRC, 27 or 28 is around the highest RPI number that has ever been attached to a team chosen as a host. So, the challenge will be for OU (31), TCU (34), and TT (43) to get to that threshhold.

Fortunately for OU and TT, they both have some big RPI games left. OU - WV @ home (37), and TT @ Lubbock (currently 43). TT - @ OSU (3) and OU (currently 31) @ Lubbock. You figure, TT will almost have to win 4/6 and OU at least that many, but one will also knock the other out. (My question remains: can OSU still host if they lose 2/3 to TT? I'm more confident than I was before the UT and SEMO sweeps, but I still wouldn't want to leave that in the committee's hands.)

Meanwhile, TCU is 34 and still has a viable path to a league title, but every game they have left is +100 RPI and 4 of those are at home (1 vs. 259 and 3 vs. 108. They also have 3 @ Kansas (#146). How much could their RPI go up if they go undefeated in those games? And, of course, a loss - especially at home - would really take them down. I think they'll have to go undefeated to even have a chance to host, but I still wonder what the committee will do if they win the regular season Big 12 but end up with an RPI of 30 or higher?

UT definitely helped themselves by sweeping WV on the road and they have the RPI (18). They have 4 games left - all at home and all vs. +100 RPI (1xSHSU #118, 3xKU #146). I think they'll also have to go undefeated to host.

FWIW, Boyd's Needs Report shows - OU needing to sweep to get top 16, TCU needing to sweep to get top 32 (no path to top 16), UT needing to sweep to get top 32 (no path to top 16), TT needing 3 wins over OU and at least two against OSU to get top 32 (no path to top 16). (He says OSU needs 2 home wins or 1 road win in the last 6 for top 16; and 1 home/3 road, 2 home/2 road, or 3 home/0 road for top 8)

Obviously, the caveats to all of this are: (1) the RPIs and corresponding records of a good chunk of the current RPI top 20 may force the committee to break with past norms to some extent. For example, Baseball America has Arkansas as a 7 seed, but they have a 23 RPI at the moment (though they do have 3 home games against #5 Vandy this weekend, so perhaps BA is assuming they'll move up with a couple wins); (2) IIRC, the conference tourneys lately have been given more weight than what was given in the past; (3) there's still a lot of things to be decided over the last two weekends.
 
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Go contrarian or against the grain. You have bases open so walk him or throw unhit-able pitches to ground or fly out but nothing HR hitable. Do what the OU coach did have a team meeting on strategy prior to pitching a HR pitch to end the game!
You can't put the winning run on base for free, and you can 't move the tying run to second for free. Just have to select/make a better pitch and there's no problem.
 

Ptak'sNewspaper

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And from a fan point of view, I really like their program as well. Coach who has turned down a lot of big time programs to stay put, players who play hard but don't act like showboating clowns, cool uniforms, etc.

You know, looking at it a 2nd time, if Dallas Baptist wins their final two conference series (which are against decent competition), I would definitely give Dallas Baptist a host over Gonzaga. Just my opinion.
 
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You can't put the winning run on base for free, and you can 't move the tying run to second for free. Just have to select/make a better pitch and there's no problem.
It’s like Chess… no rush so Walton or Holiday need to strategize with team so one HR hit doesn’t beat you. You were in favor of loading the bases in one of the prior games so why not load the bases so any base is an out?