Massey Now predicts us at 5-7 updated 9/12

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osu_cowboy_007

Territorial Marshal
Sep 21, 2008
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#21
We compete against the likes of Rice, North Texas for OL recruits, there's no reason for not having a competent line to play against some one like Mizz State. It's on Gundy for not assembling the talent.
 
Jul 9, 2011
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#22
Just curious: don't know who/where Massey is so I can't look it up. Did he drop OU's expected win total after the weak 5 point squeaker with Tulane? Tulane had the ball late in the 4th quarter and could easily have won that game.
 
Jun 4, 2007
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#24
He has us winning our next 4 games by a combined total of just 14 points.

Tulsa 28-20
Boise 28-26
Kansas State 28-27
Baylor 27-24

I know it's all based off an algorithm from game 1 and no teams are "connected" yet but damn. In fact, his ratings say we only break 30 one time this season against Kansas.

We need a big game today and hang 30+.
 
Oct 30, 2007
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#25
He has us winning our next 4 games by a combined total of just 14 points.

Tulsa 28-20
Boise 28-26
Kansas State 28-27
Baylor 27-24

I know it's all based off an algorithm from game 1 and no teams are "connected" yet but damn. In fact, his ratings say we only break 30 one time this season against Kansas.

We need a big game today and hang 30+.
We have plenty of talent to do just that. We did last week as well.


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Jan 15, 2017
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Enid
#26
He has us winning our next 4 games by a combined total of just 14 points.

Tulsa 28-20
Boise 28-26
Kansas State 28-27
Baylor 27-24

I know it's all based off an algorithm from game 1 and no teams are "connected" yet but damn. In fact, his ratings say we only break 30 one time this season against Kansas.

We need a big game today and hang 30+.

Turns out he was actually giving us too much credit
 
Jan 14, 2006
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#27
He has us winning our next 4 games by a combined total of just 14 points.

Tulsa 28-20
Boise 28-26
Kansas State 28-27
Baylor 27-24

I know it's all based off an algorithm from game 1 and no teams are "connected" yet but damn. In fact, his ratings say we only break 30 one time this season against Kansas.

We need a big game today and hang 30+.
This guy might be a genius.
 
Oct 16, 2003
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Edmond, OK
#28
Preseason, Massey was showing us as a 9-3 record with losses to OU,Tex,ISU.

After week 1, West Virginia and Texas Tech were added are added as losses.

After week 2, TCU is now a predicted loss and Boise State is a 50/50 game. That puts us at 5-7. In fact, Kansas is now the only game that has a meaningful prediction outcome of victory (74%). That's the bad news. I guess the good news is that six of our upcoming games fall in an outcome range of 41% - 54%. So those six games could easily be considered toss-ups and we could improve enough yet that those games could go our way.

Now, I don't necessarily think Massey is always 100% right, but it is projecting some of the same outcomes I am fearing after watching a good number of the Big-12 games through week #2.

A few observations:
* We are now ranked #7 our of the 10 Big-12 teams.
* We've won our first two games against our two weakest opponents by an average margin of 6 points.
* Kansas and Boise State are our two weakest opponents remaining, both of which are higher ranked than Tulsa.
* Kansas (74%) is the only remaining game that could be said is expected to be a win.
* OU, Texas, ISU are still unlikely wins (33%-36%)
* The other six are in the toss-ups category (41%-54%).
* Boise has averaged 42 points a game in their first two games.
* OSU has averaged just 25 points per game.
* With the losses by Texas and Iowa State, OU (#6) now has a commanding ranking lead over 2nd place TCU (#26) in the Big-12.


https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/10686
 
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Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
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#29
Preseason, Massey was showing us as a 9-3 record with losses to OU,Tex,ISU.

After week 1, West Virginia and Texas Tech were added are added as losses.

After week 2, TCU is now a predicted loss and Boise State is a 50/50 game. That puts us at 5-7. In fact, Kansas is now the only game that has a meaningful prediction outcome of victory (74%). That's the bad news. I guess the good news is that six of our upcoming games fall in an outcome range of 41% - 54%. So those six games could easily be considered toss-ups and we could improve enough yet that those games could go our way.

Now, I don't necessarily think Massey is always 100% right, but it is projecting some of the same outcomes I am fearing after watching a good number of the Big-12 games through week #2.

A few observations:
* We are now ranked #7 our of the 10 Big-12 teams.
* We've won our first two games against our two weakest opponents by an average margin of 6 points.
* Kansas and Boise State are our two weakest opponents remaining, both of which are higher ranked than Tulsa.
* Kansas (74%) is the only remaining game that could be said is expected to be a win.
* OU, Texas, ISU are still unlikely wins (33%-36%)
* The other six are in the toss-ups category (41%-54%).
* Boise has averaged 42 points a game in their first two games.
* OSU has averaged just 25 points per game.
* With the losses by Texas and Iowa State, OU (#6) now has a commanding ranking lead over 2nd place TCU (#26) in the Big-12.


https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/10686
No doubt it's going to be interesting...Having a bunch of guys out of the offense hasn't helped us. Cowboy back isn't what it was with the loss of Logan Carter. Does anyone know his status? Also losing to the transfer portal our other great TE has been damaging. Also having one of the main cogs in the Oline out the past two games hasn't helped. I expect the offense to be much more productive vs Bosie than it was vs Tulsa...we will see as we are going to likely simplify the offense a bit (as is our norm when we cannot make over 4 yards a carry) and we need a few cogs back in the wheel. Once these things happen and we recognize teams are stacking the box in extreem ways to stop our run game...we "should" be better...we may even see a the QB replaced if things don't improve in the Boise State game. We need to be back to where we were in the last two games of last year...not the TCU game (which is the level we are playing at now)....it's interesting that we are inconsistent out the gate like this...Could it have to do with rep's?
 
Jan 15, 2017
520
139
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Enid
#30
Preseason, Massey was showing us as a 9-3 record with losses to OU,Tex,ISU.

After week 1, West Virginia and Texas Tech were added are added as losses.

After week 2, TCU is now a predicted loss and Boise State is a 50/50 game. That puts us at 5-7. In fact, Kansas is now the only game that has a meaningful prediction outcome of victory (74%). That's the bad news. I guess the good news is that six of our upcoming games fall in an outcome range of 41% - 54%. So those six games could easily be considered toss-ups and we could improve enough yet that those games could go our way.

Now, I don't necessarily think Massey is always 100% right, but it is projecting some of the same outcomes I am fearing after watching a good number of the Big-12 games through week #2.

A few observations:
* We are now ranked #7 our of the 10 Big-12 teams.
* We've won our first two games against our two weakest opponents by an average margin of 6 points.
* Kansas and Boise State are our two weakest opponents remaining, both of which are higher ranked than Tulsa.
* Kansas (74%) is the only remaining game that could be said is expected to be a win.
* OU, Texas, ISU are still unlikely wins (33%-36%)
* The other six are in the toss-ups category (41%-54%).
* Boise has averaged 42 points a game in their first two games.
* OSU has averaged just 25 points per game.
* With the losses by Texas and Iowa State, OU (#6) now has a commanding ranking lead over 2nd place TCU (#26) in the Big-12.


https://masseyratings.com/cf2021/10686
I think I’m going to have to disagree with him on this update, I think his 7-5 prediction was closer to where we will be. I understand we have been less than impressive but so has every other Big XII team, we will fix some stuff schematically and I think our defense is top 2 or 3 in conference, if not #1, that alone should get us some wins.
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
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#31
I think I’m going to have to disagree with him on this update, I think his 7-5 prediction was closer to where we will be. I understand we have been less than impressive but so has every other Big XII team, we will fix some stuff schematically and I think our defense is top 2 or 3 in conference, if not #1, that alone should get us some wins.
Having gotten these two wins when others had L's is a better position to be in than BOTH Texas and Iowa State whom he still has beating us. The reason that is so is because BOTH teams had lofty expectations and both teams have fallen hard...it will be tougher to recover from those hard falls than it will be from our poor offensive performance...we just have one side of the ball to focus on now. The first game we had both specials and offense to focus on...now it's just offense. We will clean this up significantly and, I think, go get a win on the blue turf...hopefully.
 
Jan 15, 2017
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#32
Having gotten these two wins when others had L's is a better position to be in than BOTH Texas and Iowa State whom he still has beating us. The reason that is so is because BOTH teams had lofty expectations and both teams have fallen hard...it will be tougher to recover from those hard falls than it will be from our poor offensive performance...we just have one side of the ball to focus on now. The first game we had both specials and offense to focus on...now it's just offense. We will clean this up significantly and, I think, go get a win on the blue turf...hopefully.
I think we will have a hard week of practice, come out on the road a lot more focused and ready to play. I think this game will be similar to @OregonState, perhaps we were just too comfortable playing at home these past two weeks.
 

TheMonkey

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Sep 16, 2004
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#34
If we play like we did these past couple games we will only win 2 more…
I watched several Big XII games yesterday. We’ll win more than 2. This was Sanders’ first game back. We have lots of young WRs that have to grow up fast. Knowing what we have on this team, I’d say 4th place in the conference looks likely. I still expected a lot more though.
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
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#36
I think we will have a hard week of practice, come out on the road a lot more focused and ready to play. I think this game will be similar to @OregonState, perhaps we were just too comfortable playing at home these past two weeks.
I do look for it to be a bit similar to that game, but it's a harder opponent so I expect a one touchdown, max, win. Which would be a great result. Any win on the road @Boise is a great win.
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
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#37
If we play like we did these past couple games we will only win 2 more…
On offense, what you say is possible...on defense, we might win the conference at this rate..also common sense and history with Gundy says that's not correct...At worst we win 7...I still say we will 10 or even 11 (btw, all my win totals always include the bowl game...because it's very important...even if some of our spoiled internet fans think it's meaningless). Every game is winnable until it's played, we win more close games than we lose under this coach. Close games favor the defense.
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
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#38

Turns out he was actually giving us too much credit
-What 3 points total more credit? Lol, I'm fine with his predictions...that would mean he has us 6-0 going to Texas...I'm great with that. Have to understand yesterday was not our best preformance and the ref deck was stacked with AAC crew...Tulsa is AAC AND the AAC has EVERY reason to be pissed at the Big 12.

The reversal of the pick 6 was completely bunk no one held the receiver...it took momentum.
Two calls that were called incomplete in the endzone and a fumble that had to go to massive long reviews that had to be overturned to be called in our favor. Both obvious, yet the Ref's got them wrong...TU was literally tackling our DE on every play of the last dive and he only got called for it when he laid down on him and told him to like it....This is an obvious sign of biased officiating and happens vs OU all the time in Bedlam 4th quarters when ou is driving. Good news for us is that the ref's in Boise will likely be, hopefully, an unbiased crew.
 
Oct 16, 2003
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Edmond, OK
#39
Based on how the League has played through two games, I do feel we are better than Kansas and Texas Tech. And I would probably say Baylor. Boise State has looked pretty good (at least offensively) in their first two games, but they haven't seen a defense like we'll bring to the Smurf Turf.

Even though they looked suspect in their opener, I think OU is clearly a notch ahead of the rest of the Conference and expect them to go through the league undefeated.

But the six teams in the middle, Texas/Iowa State/Kansas State/TCU/West Virginia/Oklahoma State all look pretty similar. If you were to rate those six teams based on best win to date:

* Kansas State win over #36 Stanford
* TCU win over #73 California
* Oklahoma State #84 Tulsa
* Texas win over #91 Louisiana
* Iowa State win over FCS Northern Iowa
* West Virginia over FCS(?) LIU Post

So none of those six have done anything to impress in the first two weeks. If there is an alarm in the league going off, got to think Iowa State is in worse shape than anyone. I think Texas was looking average, but when they changed QB to Thompson they looked better. My guess is you'll see Thompson going forward and they may play better. Kansas St and TCU look like they are on track. West Virginia and Oklahoma State still have some things to figure out.

EVERY week is going to be a challenge for our Cowboys. We can just hope that things come together on offense in time to produce a decent season. I could see us finishing anywhere between 4-8 and 10-2.
 

MustangPokeFan

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Sep 9, 2005
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#40
Yes, Tulsa Kansas and Baylor are winnable, ttech is 50/50, not sure on Boise but at their place they are a favorite.

No starters out for the OL, so we are going to struggle to average more than 25 per game. Sterling out for Tulsa first half. The D did not get pressure without blitzing so real opponents will shred that. Also we refuse to cover RBs so that is a major problem but at least it is fixable. Run D was okay but against BY FAR the worst opponent other than Kansas it was also not impressive.

Pile on that our O scheme is beyond pedestrian. All opponents can predict what we are going to do. No misdirection is ever used so run your base D and we will struggle to score. Obviously three DL is all you need to stuff the run. Opponents game prep for us is simple fundamentals like tackling, no scheme needed.


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Everything is still winnable outside of ISU and OU. Texas sucks, Texas Tech sucks and barely beat Stephen F Austin, K-State was good but lost Skylar Thompson and almost lost to the Salukis. Baylor looks to be better than Tech. I'd say WVU is a 50/50 game as well as TCU who struggled to beat California. With some amount of offensive improvement in the form of some combination of slightly improved O-Line play, Spencer getting a clue and limiting turnovers, continued development of young star receivers, coaches having an epiphany and realizing our two best running backs are Warren and Richardson and most importantly better play calling we could be right back to that 8-4 or 9-3 range. I am not confident about winning at Boise at this point.