ERCOT calls for Texans to conserve Power--Grid Failure possible

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Donnyboy

Lettin' the high times carry the low....
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#41
H lol me understand. How do we blame renewable energy for what is currently occuring when ,73% of the current offline power generation is thermal produced ?

Shouldn't a maintenance sched b balanced in bother renewable and thermal generation to prevent exactly what is occuring now? And why did the president of the ERCOT NOT know that the planned offline maintenance was going to occur if they are the ones responsible for the forecasting of energy usage? How did they miss this situation in their forecasting? Super high temps forecast, a very significant amount of power generation that is heavily thermal that will be down at the same time, and increased population

Seems to me if they are responsible for forecasting to meet demand...they need some new forecasting measurements...cause they should have easily seen this coming
Because when wind doesn’t produce they don’t have take an outage they just don’t generate they are only considered in outage if actual shutdown maintenance is going on……. Thermal assets must list there capacity every minute of every day. If your seasonal capacity is 700 and you can only do 695 you have to report the derate to ERCOT and that amount of generation is considered out. Wind and solar do not have to do that. If on a calm day a wind farm is operating at 5% they are considered online they just get assigned a new forecast number. Same scenario on a gas plant and it would be considered 95% unavailable. So if you are a reporter and want to make a great buzz getting line you say thermal is 73% of outages…..you don’t say that the majority of thermal power is available…..you don’t say over the peak hours of the day renewables were producing at 10% (or less) of their installed capacity.
To the second part….. you can’t coordinate anything with renewables unless you can forecast the weather perfectly. This can’t be done hours in advance much less weeks and months. And I’m not talking it might rain today I’m talking at this exact location at 150 elevation the wind will be x speed at y direction with 100% accuracy all the time. Wind forecast are missed all the time…..and they are missed on the low side more than the high that just never makes the news. It far more common to have 10K forecast and get 15 than 2.
The President of ERCOT wasn’t the president when a lot of these outages were planned. He will never be involved in the picking and choosing and frankly isn’t qualified to do so. I know the guy and he is good hire I think he will improve things but that’s kind of like saying why doesn’t the CEO of Ford know how to install a transmission. He will get involved if 15% of the transmissions fail so to speak. The load Sunday caught everyone by surprise. Private nor public had that amount of load anticipated…..and here’s the thing temps aren’t high for here. What we are looking at this situation a lot moving forward and this isn’t something that can be fixed by summer. You can’t say poof and install 5K of dispatchable power. This is going to take time and rolling blackouts will just be a part of life this summer. But this also isn’t like the winter storm from a power plant perspective…..there were plants that couldn’t get gas this winter that’s not gonna happen. Thus the failure comments….the failures today will be you have to reset your clocks and your house gets 2 degrees warmer if they happen at all. But again you can’t have 30% of your total generation be weather dependent and expect there not to be events you can’t plan for.
 

Donnyboy

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#42
Which is why you do risk mitigation. I served on some teams that did this for oil & gas companies. They knew the reserves were shrinking, but didn’t insulate the plants and distribution because it would eat into profit and the probability of that kind of weather phenomenon was low. The problem is the impact could be catastrophic. This is poor management and a deference to profit. Capitalism works best when profit lines up with the needs of the public. This is an example of when those don’t align. Studies have shown that deregulation in Texas actually created higher consumer pricing than in regulated markets. This 19 year experiment (so far) is failing if changes aren’t made quickly.
This is not accurate at all. Retail power is cheaper in Texas now than it was in the 90s. And you me hear me gripe about renewables all the time…..they are the reason it is so cheap. Texas is letting the federal government pay for its power and passing the savings on to the customer. Reserves on paper aren’t shrinking……we have higher reserve margins on installed values than ever. The issue is those aren’t there in extreme conditions but thermal assets can’t survive running 30% of the time trying to compete with subsidized assets in normal conditions.
 

TheMonkey

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#43
This is not accurate at all. Retail power is cheaper in Texas now than it was in the 90s. And you me hear me gripe about renewables all the time…..they are the reason it is so cheap. Texas is letting the federal government pay for its power and passing the savings on to the customer. Reserves on paper aren’t shrinking……we have higher reserve margins on installed values than ever. The issue is those aren’t there in extreme conditions but thermal assets can’t survive running 30% of the time trying to compete with subsidized assets in normal conditions.
To clarify, I didn’t say it was more expensive than the ‘90s. I said studies showed regulated markets produced lower costs than Texas’ deregulated market.
 

Donnyboy

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#44
To clarify, I didn’t say it was more expensive than the ‘90s. I said studies showed regulated markets produced lower costs than Texas’ deregulated market.
I would love to see the study. You can get residential plans as low as $0.06 here. If you are paying more than $0.10 you just don’t care. The average rate for the nation is $0.1324. Texas has problems and is heading towards real ones without big changes but cost isn’t and hasn’t been one of them and that’s including pass along of the CREZ transmission projects which were multi billion dollar upgrades to get the renewable power from the west to Houston and the North.
 

TheMonkey

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I would love to see the study. You can get residential plans as low as $0.06 here. If you are paying more than $0.10 you just don’t care. The average rate for the nation is $0.1324. Texas has problems and is heading towards real ones without big changes but cost isn’t and hasn’t been one of them and that’s including pass along of the CREZ transmission projects which were multi billion dollar upgrades to get the renewable power from the west to Houston and the North.
Have fun.
https://tcaptx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TCAP-HistoryofDeregulation-2018.pdf

THIS REPORT EXAMINES THE FACTS THAT:
• Average electricity prices in areas of Texas both inside and outside deregulation have declined in recent years. However, Texans in deregulated areas consis- tently have paid more for power than Texans outside deregulation.
• The number of electricity shopping choices has ex- panded greatly since the early years of the electric deregulation law, but comparison shopping re- mains a challenge.
• Transmission and distribution rates have increased in recent years at a pace greater than inflation. Al- though these rates are regulated, they contribute to electricity costs in deregulated areas.
• The Texas Legislature has failed to act on important reforms, including proposals to guard against mar- ket abuse.
 

Donnyboy

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#48
Have fun.
https://tcaptx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TCAP-HistoryofDeregulation-2018.pdf

THIS REPORT EXAMINES THE FACTS THAT:
• Average electricity prices in areas of Texas both inside and outside deregulation have declined in recent years. However, Texans in deregulated areas consis- tently have paid more for power than Texans outside deregulation.
• The number of electricity shopping choices has ex- panded greatly since the early years of the electric deregulation law, but comparison shopping re- mains a challenge.
• Transmission and distribution rates have increased in recent years at a pace greater than inflation. Al- though these rates are regulated, they contribute to electricity costs in deregulated areas.
• The Texas Legislature has failed to act on important reforms, including proposals to guard against mar- ket abuse.
Thanks I’ll check it out
 

Donnyboy

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#50
I’ll admit I haven’t taken a deep dive into the study itself. I read an article that referenced the findings. I can’t remember what you do. Are you in the energy industry?
Yeah I’ve been in ERCOT a long time now
 

PokeJ

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#53
DMN reports that a fire on the GSU transformer at the Comanche Park Nuclear plant in Glen Rose has taken 1 unit off line. That coupled with the highest June power demand in history is partially to blame for the problem.

I’d post a link but I’m an old geezer


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 

Donnyboy

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#54
We are at the peak of the day and price $40….. it was $2000 Sunday. The wind showed up. The grid has room to spare today.
 

Donnyboy

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#55
DMN reports that a fire on the GSU transformer at the Comanche Park Nuclear plant in Glen Rose has taken 1 unit off line. That coupled with the highest June power demand in history is partially to blame for the problem.

I’d post a link but I’m an old geezer


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
The transformer issue is a real thing….. they will have spares cause nuke plants have all the spares but that’s not a one day or week fix
 

Donnyboy

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#58
So this shows wind is reliable?
No it shows it was where they said today. Almost every shortage and price event in the last 5-7 years in ERCOT has been associated with under forecasted production of wind. I wish it worked and there is a large chance my next job is acting like managing wind is work cause it ain’t going anywhere but it what it is.
 

Donnyboy

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#59
Sounds like pretty normal prices ($40) for what I see at this time in northern OK (SPP)
Business as usual.
Today was a non event. I honestly think ERCOT is doing this out of an overly cautious approach after February…..but if you are TikTok the reaction is not positive but it’s hilarious!!!!
 
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#60
The transformer issue is a real thing….. they will have spares cause nuke plants have all the spares but that’s not a one day or week fix
I’ve watched a 345kV GSU get swapped 3 times in my 14 years. It never has looked easy, but there’s worse things that could happen. (Dropped stator at Arkansas Nuclear 1 comes to mind…)
Bad part is it causing a FO on a nuke unit. That’s a big loss of normally rock-solid chunk of MWs.