ERCOT calls for Texans to conserve Power--Grid Failure possible

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Binman4OSU

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#21
Talked to CoServ last Friday. Before the warning. They be mad. Claiming other independents aren’t even Texans. Trying to create shortages and raise more demand to get higher prices. And I didn’t even ask about that, the representative just went into a prepared excuse. I wanted to know the forecast (if any) for rolling blackouts. Crossed my mind because of the February damage and I have an option to buy another solution. They said that rolling blackouts have been happening south of Austin for the last 20 years. Around Austin for the past 10 years. None for north of Waco on massive scales. She said to prepare for them. Number 1 reason was population increase. FWIW
Lets look at the numbers.
from Dec 2019 to Dec 2020 Texas had double the national avg of population growth with a 15% in growth rate.

SO what does that mean in terms of people? It means that in that time frame Texas had a Net gain of 373,965 additional individual residents at the end of 2020 than it did in 2019

the Grid companies have enough power generation OFFLINE this week for maint to power 2.2 MILLION HOMES.

The avg family size in Texas is 2.86 people. Lets say 2.86 people per home and 2.2 million homes....that is enough electricity OFFLINE to provide 6.3 MILLION people power in those homes.

This has NOTHING to do with population

Now it DOES lend to the idea that maybe a few of these individual electric companies are getting together to limit supply via "Maint Weeks" to drive up pricing which is HIGHLY Illegal...but IF that is happening, that is another failure of ERCOT Leadership as there should be bylaws in place governing price increases and pricing stabilization during crises demand and they should be overseeing these pricing fluctuations to ensure the pricing is being driven by Market forces and not illegal forces
 
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llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
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#23
Lets look at the numbers.
from Dec 2019 to Dec 2020 Texas had double the national avg of population growth with a 15% in growth rate.

SO what does that mean in terms of people? It means that in that time frame Texas had a Net gain of 373,965 additional individual residents at the end of 2020 than it did in 2019

the Grid companies have enough power generation OFFLINE this week for maint to power 2.2 MILLION HOMES.

The avg family size in Texas is 2.86 people. Lets say 2.86 people per home and 2.2 million homes....that is enough electricity OFFLINE to provide 6.3 MILLION people power in those homes.

This has NOTHING to do with population

Now it DOES lend to the idea that maybe a few of these individual electric companies are getting together to limit supply via "Maint Weeks" to drive up pricing which is HIGHLY Illegal...but IF that is happening, that is another failure of ERCOT Leadership as there should be bylaws in place governing price increases and pricing stabilization during crises demand and they should be overseeing these pricing fluctuations to ensure the pricing is being driven by Market forces and not illegal forces
Not so sure.
https://infrastructurereportcard.org/state-item/Texas/
That population increase brings infrastructure and business increases. Still graded as a B+.

Regardless of our jokes here, there’s only been a warning. 95 degree week and no brown or blackouts. Yet.

Despite HOA, several companies here specialize in hiding off grid tech in plain site. That’s the route I’m going. Tired of power trips. Ha. Literally.
 

Binman4OSU

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#25
Not so sure.
https://infrastructurereportcard.org/state-item/Texas/
That population increase brings infrastructure and business increases. Still graded as a B+.

Regardless of our jokes here, there’s only been a warning. 95 degree week and no brown or blackouts. Yet.

Despite HOA, several companies here specialize in hiding off grid tech in plain site. That’s the route I’m going. Tired of power trips. Ha. Literally.
From the link you posted for the 2021 Texas Infrastructure report

On the electricity front, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system is comprised of 46,500 miles of transmission lines and more than 680 generation resources. This infrastructure is sufficient to meet current demands. However, electricity demands in Texas have continuously increased and are expected to continue growing. Over the past decade, energy use in ERCOT increased by 20% due to a strong economy and population growth.

According to this report, they should have sufficient infrastructure to meet current demands...yet here we are not even Summer and they can NOT meet the demand because they have so many power generation stations offline for Maint at the same time.

Texas HAS the capacity to easily handle what is happening right now.....had the independent power generators hadn't taken so much capacity all offline at the same time....which leads me to think there might be a need to investigate these generation plants and find out if this was a happy coincidence that is straining the grid OR if it was planned as a tool to manipulate supply to drive up demand and price.

Especially with this happening just 4 months out from the Last fiasco they had.
 
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#27
From the link you posted for the 2021 Texas Infrastructure report

On the electricity front, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system is comprised of 46,500 miles of transmission lines and more than 680 generation resources. This infrastructure is sufficient to meet current demands. However, electricity demands in Texas have continuously increased and are expected to continue growing. Over the past decade, energy use in ERCOT increased by 20% due to a strong economy and population growth.

According to this report, they should have sufficient infrastructure to meet current demands...yet here we are not even Summer and they can NOT meet the demand because they have so many power generation stations offline for Maint at the same time.

Texas HAS the capacity to easily handle what is happening right now.....had the independent power generators hadn't taken so much capacity all offline at the same time....which leads me to think there might be a need to investigate these generation plants and find out if this was a happy coincidence that is straining the grid OR if it was planned as a tool to manipulate supply to drive up demand and price.

Especially with this happening just 4 months out from the Last fiasco they had.
They should make repairs to the system.

But not idle parts of the system to do them.

And not do them during periods of historically normal temps.

And be able to predict abnormal temps.

And increase capacity.

Makes sense to me. When you find that utility, please, let us all know.
 

wrenhal

Federal Marshal
Aug 11, 2011
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#29
Sounding like Texas has been overrun by the same people that used to run California's power grid. Rolling blackouts will make those transplants feel right at home.

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What makes you think former Californians are running the Texas power grid? The biggest issue former Californians have created is consumption.

The real issue is how the grid was deregulated. And it was done in a way that was intentionally different than California. Texans are proud of that.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/the-real-problem-in-texas-deregulation/595564/
… the Texas grid simply couldn’t deliver. That’s because the power system in Texas wasn’t really designed to deliver power to customers. It was designed to deliver revenue to the patchwork quilt of companies that choose to participate in its marketplace. Companies that could disappear in a year. Companies that collect bills from customers, but have no obligation to restore downed power lines, because someone else owns them.
It was a joke.... Because California ALWAYS has electrical problems and there are so many California->Texas transplants now.

I mean I understand that it's a big complicated mess that is going to take some work to fix.

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TheMonkey

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#30
It was a joke.... Because California ALWAYS has electrical problems and there are so many California->Texas transplants now.

I mean I understand that it's a big complicated mess that is going to take some work to fix.

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Yeah. OK.

No offense, but you need to work on making your jokes and serious comments more distinctive from each other. Otherwise it makes it hard to take you seriously… or humorously.
 

wrenhal

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#31
It was a joke.... Because California ALWAYS has electrical problems and there are so many California->Texas transplants now.

I mean I understand that it's a big complicated mess that is going to take some work to fix.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
Yeah. OK.

No offense, but you need to work on making your jokes and serious comments more distinctive from each other. Otherwise it makes it hard to take you seriously… or humorously.
I figured the blame it on Californians would really be seen as a joke.

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TheMonkey

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#32
I figured the blame it on Californians would really be seen as a joke.

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Sure. And either…
  1. I’m too dumb to get the joke
    or
  2. You lack enough self-awareness to see why you saying this doesn’t read like a joke.
 

Jonkr06

Territorial Marshal
Aug 18, 2007
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#35
Funny how as a texan, I am not nearly as concerned about this as everyone else.
Why? People were without power for nearly a week all around me back in February causing a ripple effect of chaos. It seems as though nothing has been corrected and we're headed right for Summer.
 

wrenhal

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#37
I figured the blame it on Californians would really be seen as a joke.

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Sure. And either…
  1. I’m too dumb to get the joke
    or
  2. You lack enough self-awareness to see why you saying this doesn’t read like a joke.
Or you just assume partisan toward me for anything??
Nah. Anyway, I know my sense of humor is subtle and dry sometimes. My wife tells me all the time.
Seriously, no biggie. Have a great day. If you're in Oklahoma drink lots of water and stay indoors.

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TheMonkey

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#38
Or you just assume partisan toward me for anything??
Nah. Anyway, I know my sense of humor is subtle and dry sometimes. My wife tells me all the time.
Seriously, no biggie. Have a great day. If you're in Oklahoma drink lots of water and stay indoors.

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Fair enough… but I also have fair reason to assume so. Which is my point. When you continually make broad, unsubstantiated, (dare I say) ill-informed comments… don’t be surprised or defensive when folks think a seemingly broad, unsubstantiated, ill-informed comment isn’t humor.

Have a great day. Stay hydrated and out of the heat in Oklahoma and I’ll do the same in Texas.
 

Donnyboy

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#39
This is the LEADERSHIP failure here. If all of these private utility companies come together under the eye of ERCOT but can not coordinate their own outage plans in order to ensure the grid is stable and can handle demand than you have FAILED at leadership and communication here.

IF you are going to be independent as they have done, then the private companies need to be communicating, planning and working Together on these things and they CLEARLY are not.

I mean the President of ERCOT says he now has to go back to these companies and figure out how come they had soo much capacity offline for maint all at the same time now which is contributing heavily to the issues they have now. That is a complete lack of leadership and communication on the part of ERCOT
This analysis all happening everyday in accordance with FERC guidelines. ERCOT staff approve every outage and each outage must be entered into a outage coordination system that all scheduling entities must use (and everyone must use and ERCOT Qualified Scheduling Entity) then each outage is reviewed by an ERCOT outage coordination group, a transmission group, and ultimately the shift supervisor have to approve the outage. Then anytime up to 24 hours prior to the outage they can cancel it if there is any emergency present. A lot of these outages are scheduled, again through ERCOTs system with their approval, months in advance. ALL as in ALL of them have to be scheduled 2 days in advance to not be considered a Forced Outage.......forced outages are uncontrolled outages that cause an immediate need to shut down and are subject to audit.....in other words if you buy a bunch of power and then call a forced outage they are going to check to be sure you really had an emergency situation. Put in simpler terms a planned outage is planned 7 or more days in advance (usually months due to lead time of labor and parts) think of this as getting a new radiator in your car at 100K miles big work that occurs on defined intervals, a maintenance outage is planned a minimum of 48 hours in advance and is usually the repair of something that is a known issue but the facility can operate safely till the unit can be shut down at a planned time....think crack in your windshield that they are coming to fix this weekend....forced is not coordinated and must happen for safety or reliability reasons now....this a trip, big leak, fire stuff like that think blow out of a tire you aren't going anywhere till you change it. If ERCOT has outage problems they need only blame themselves they do 100% of the coordination and it is illegal for say me and you as separate entities to coordinate outages. Out of everyone's control is the largest single generation unit the nuke at Commanche Peak is in a forced outage and that is extremely rare.

We hit a 74K load on a Sunday with temps in the 90s......that is crazy high. We are seeing the effects of the migration.....that is a real thing....ERCOT also is in charge of forecasting load daily and long term. They way they do this is they look at similar situations. With the lockdown they lost a years worth of forecasting data due to all the closures....during that year a gozillion people moved here. 74K would have been the all time record load in 2018 on 110 degree weekday with school open. So the change in humanity is a real thing. But again.....the problem is renewables. Sunday afternoon prices hit the market cap for two hours.....of the 33K installed capacity of renewables 2100 MW of generation was being exported to the grid.....if thermals ever perform like that the whole state is black. We have over built renewables that is our number one problem.....now it certainly seems we have a load issue and while I agree leadership of ERCOT should have been further out front of this they have been very good at forecasting load for decades I just think their data went stale. Also some of this is hedging on their part for appearances......ERCOT is going to CYA to death because they are going to try to lay the Feb event at the feet of the PUCT and vice versa.

The other thing we need to talk about is the hyperbole of all these stories and just overall crappy reporting they all are....I have yet to read one that is accurate from any source. We need to define a grid failure....are rolling outages where you lose power for 15 minutes every two hours over maybe a 3 hour period by design using smart meters a failure......because that's worst case today....and that isn't a failure that is operating to protect itself by design. If any outage of power is considered a failure then the grid fails somewhere every thunderstorm. All these stories are written to make it sound like the grid is held together with chewing gum and there are no rules......and all the rules (which are ALL in accordance with FERC/NERC guidelines) are literally public information. All the outage data is public information....hell after 60 days all the pricing data becomes public. And all the proposed construction projects to install more capacity are made public once approved.....fun fact there is only one thermal generation project planned in the next seven years. So an actual reporter could actually see what generation is, how it is made, what it cost, what load was, what the load forecast was, why any misses occured, what was in outage, and what is planned over the next 7 years. I came on here when Pickens announced his plan and said he would never do it because he had nothing in the approved que que....he never had a single approved project and not a single reporter of the dozens he promoted it to did the basic 5 minute exercise to check....that's how long it would have taken anyone to know it was a pipedream. When I stated that I got the response "I think a billionaire knows more about it than you" everywhere from here to alumni functions.....no it was always right in front of everyone's face and no one looked. All the information is out there......every single bit of it. There is literally nothing that a good reporter or concerned citizen can't go find out for themselves and up to this point the total sum of that group to do so is zero.
 
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Binman4OSU

Legendary Cowboy
Aug 31, 2007
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Stupid about AGW!!
#40
This analysis all happening everyday in accordance with FERC guidelines. ERCOT staff approve every outage and each outage must be entered into a outage coordination system that all scheduling entities must use (and everyone must use and ERCOT Qualified Scheduling Entity) then each outage is reviewed by an ERCOT outage coordination group, a transmission group, and ultimately the shift supervisor have to approve the outage. Then anytime up to 24 hours prior to the outage they can cancel it if there is any emergency present. A lot of these outages are scheduled, again through ERCOTs system with their approval, months in advance. ALL as in ALL of them have to be scheduled 2 days in advance to not be considered a Forced Outage.......forced outages are uncontrolled outages that cause an immediate need to shut down and are subject to audit.....in other words if you buy a bunch of power and then call a forced outage they are going to check to be sure you really had an emergency situation. Put in simpler terms a planned outage is planned 7 or more days (usually months due to lead time of labor and parts) think of this as getting a new radiator in your car at 100K miles big work that occurs on defined intervals, a maintenance outage is planned a minimum of 48 hours in advance and is usually the repair of something that is a known issue but the facility can operate safely till the unit can be shut down at a planned time....think crack in your windshield that they are coming to fix this weekend....forced is not coordinated and must happen for safety or reliability reasons now....this a trip, big leak, fire stuff like that think blow out of a tire you aren't going anywhere till you change it. If ERCOT has outage problems they need only blame themselves they do 100% of the coordination and it is illegal for say me and you as separate entities to coordinate outages. Out of everyone's control is the largest single generation unit the nuke at Commanche Peak is in a forced outage and that is extremely rare.

We hit a 74K load on a Sunday with temps in the 90s......that is crazy high. We are seeing the effects of the migration.....that is a real thing....ERCOT also is in charge of forecasting load daily and long term. They way they do this is they look at similar situations. With the lockdown they lost a years worth of forecasting data due to all the closures....during that year a gozillion people moved here. 74K would have been the all time record load in 2018 on 110 degree weekday with school open. So the change in humanity is a real thing. But again.....the problem is renewables. Sunday afternoon prices hit the market cap for two hours.....of the 33K installed capacity of renewables 2100 MW of generation was being exported to the grid.....if thermals ever perform like that the whole state is black. We have over built renewables that is our number one problem.....now it certainly seems we have a load issue and while I agree leadership of ERCOT should have been further out front of this they have been very good at forecasting load for decades I just think their data went stale. Also some of this is hedging on their part for appearances......ERCOT is going to CYA to death because they are going to try to lay the Feb event at the feet of the PUCT and vice versa.

The other thing we need to talk about is the hyperbole of all these stories and just overall crappy reporting they all are....I have yet to read one that is accurate from any source. We need to define a grid failure....are rolling outages where you lose power for 15 minutes every two hours over maybe a 3 hour period by design using smart meters a failure......because that's worst case today....and that isn't a failure that is operating to protect itself by design. If any outage of power is considered a failure then the grid fails somewhere every thunderstorm. All these stories are written to make it sound like the grid is held together with chewing gum and there are no rules......and all the rules (which are ALL in accordance with FERC/NERC guidelines) are literally public information. All the outage data is public information....hell after 60 days all the pricing data becomes public. And all the proposed construction projects to install more capacity are made public once approved.....fun fact there is only one thermal generation project planned in the next seven years. So an actual reporter could actually see what generation is, how it is made, what it cost, what load was, what the load forecast was, why any misses occured, what was in outage, and what is planned over the next 7 years. I came on here when Pickens announced his plan and said he would never do it because he had nothing in the approved que que....he never had a single approved project and not a single reporter of the dozens he promoted it to did the basic 5 minute exercise to check....that's how long it would have taken anyone to know it was a pipedream. When I stated that I got the response "I think a billionaire knows more about it than you" everywhere from here to alumni functions.....no it was always right in front of everyone's face and no one looked. All the information is out there......every single bit of it. There is literally nothing that a good reporter or concerned citizen can't go find out for themselves and up to this point the total sum of that group to do so is zero.
Help me understand. How do we blame renewable energy for what is currently occurring when ,73% of the current offline power generation is thermal produced ?

Shouldn't a maintenance sched b balanced in bother renewable and thermal generation to prevent exactly what is occurring now? And why did the president of the ERCOT NOT know that the planned offline maintenance was going to occur if they are the ones responsible for the forecasting of energy usage? How did they miss this situation in their forecasting? Super high temps forecast, a very significant amount of power generation that is heavily thermal that will be down at the same time, and increased population

Seems to me if they are responsible for forecasting to meet demand...they need some new forecasting measurements...cause they should have easily seen this coming