Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter

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Binman4OSU

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TWITTER DEAL: Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his deal to buy Twitter can’t move forward unless the company shows public proof that less than 5% of the accounts on the social media platform are fake or spam.
 

OSUCowboy787

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It's not like Musk didn't know this before he made the offer. This dude has no intention of buying Twitter he just wants headlines.
I think he will buy twitter but he's looking more for a discount. If you can prove that its actually probably only worth 80% of your initial offer then it saves you a few billion. Also what better way to make headlines than to be the owner of Twitter?
 

ramases2112

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It's not like Musk didn't know this before he made the offer. This dude has no intention of buying Twitter he just wants headlines.
He is trying to lower the price in which he buys it lol. Not to mention if he doesnt buy it, it destroys the value of twitter as that would mean the percentage of bot account was more than they had been previously letting on.
 
Mar 11, 2006
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It's not like Musk didn't know this before he made the offer. This dude has no intention of buying Twitter he just wants headlines.
For mergers and acquisitions of companies that are valued based on subscribers/users/customers, it is EXTREMELY common that customer totals be verified prior to sale. Prices are often re-adjusted after customer totals are confirmed.

In this case it appears they are wanting to confirm DAU (daily average users) and how many are truly unique.
 
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Sep 6, 2012
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For mergers and acquisitions of companies that are valued based on subscribers/users/customers, it is EXTREMELY common that customer totals be verified prior to sale. Prices are often re-adjusted after customer totals are confirmed.

In this case it appears that are wanting to confirm DAU (daily average users) and how many are truly unique.
This


I have been on an acquisition team and the first thing we look at are the customer contracts (terms left and renewals)
 

Cimarron

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For mergers and acquisitions of companies that are valued based on subscribers/users/customers, it is EXTREMELY common that customer totals be verified prior to sale. Prices are often re-adjusted after customer totals are confirmed.

In this case it appears they are wanting to confirm DAU (daily average users) and how many are truly unique.
What's the legal ramifications if twitter has exaggerated their users?
 
Mar 11, 2006
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What's the legal ramifications if twitter has exaggerated their users?
Good questions, but I have no idea.
I believe they typically report DAU on their earnings call. Since there is not a payment for usage, they are not subscribers. Twitter’s valuation is based on revenue growth and opportunities. That revenue, at least for now, is solely based on advertising. And that advertising should be based on reach and eyeballs (Ie real humans and not bots).

If they materially inflated DAU with knowledge of fake accounts, then I assume there could be some exposure…but I doubt it.
 

gundysburner

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My guess is they will be unable to show that less than 5% are spam. I would think its probably closer to 20% spam accounts.
It's not like Musk didn't know this before he made the offer. This dude has no intention of buying Twitter he just wants headlines.
Or, to make a point about it’s content & ‘contributors’?

Gee, I wonder.


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Or, to make a point about it’s content & ‘contributors’?

Gee, I wonder.


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I actually read an interesting theory that this is just to gain favor with Republicans. Musk needs to be able to sell Teslas direct to consumers, almost every state that currently bans DTC auto sales is Republican run.
 
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I actually read an interesting theory that this is just to gain favor with Republicans. Musk needs to be able to sell Teslas direct to consumers, almost every state that currently bans DTC auto sales is Republican run.
With Musk and these kind of public things, I have come to assume there's some kind of ulterior motive or market manipulation going on. This seems to fit that bill.
 

OSUCowboy787

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Good questions, but I have no idea.
I believe they typically report DAU on their earnings call. Since there is not a payment for usage, they are not subscribers. Twitter’s valuation is based on revenue growth and opportunities. That revenue, at least for now, is solely based on advertising. And that advertising should be based on reach and eyeballs (Ie real humans and not bots).

If they materially inflated DAU with knowledge of fake accounts, then I assume there could be some exposure…but I doubt it.
I would think the main risk is in advertising. Will be harder for twitter to sell ad space if the true number of unique users is exposed.
 

steross

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With Musk and these kind of public things, I have come to assume there's some kind of ulterior motive or market manipulation going on. This seems to fit that bill.
If he could get republican legislatures to quit being pro-good ole boy and anti-business competition by getting rid of the franchise laws for auto sales that would be a good thing. There is no better way to become extremely rich than to have overbearing government protect your business at the cost of every consumer.

This is from a NYT article on who the 0.1% are:
---The study didn’t tell us about the small number of well-known tech and shopping billionaires but instead about the more than 140,000 Americans who earn more than $1.58 million per year. The researchers found that the typical rich American is, in their words, the owner of a “regional business,” such as an “auto dealer” or a “beverage distributor.”---
---The third important factor in gaining wealth is some way to avoid ruthless price competition, to build a local monopoly. The prevalence of owners of auto dealerships among the top 0.1 percent gives a clue to what it takes to get rich. Comparing data from the appendix of the economists’ study with data from the SUSB Annual Data Tables put out by the Census Bureau, I estimate that more than 20 percent of auto dealerships in America have an owner making more than $1.58 million per year.
Auto dealerships have legal protections; state franchising laws often give auto dealers exclusive rights to sell cars in a territory.
Of course, if upon learning this you try to buy someone’s auto dealership, you may not have much luck. Owners of auto dealerships know how good they have it.---



https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/14/...Iqepn5kdKSifm762GeKWr-fHI4mIaoZ3ogMUlDJXgorT0
 
Sep 6, 2012
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If he could get republican legislatures to quit being pro-good ole boy and anti-business competition by getting rid of the franchise laws for auto sales that would be a good thing. There is no better way to become extremely rich than to have overbearing government protect your business at the cost of every consumer.
Both parties have an issue. Biden and the dems with the UAW and Detroit.
 

gundysburner

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I actually read an interesting theory that this is just to gain favor with Republicans. Musk needs to be able to sell Teslas direct to consumers, almost every state that currently bans DTC auto sales is Republican run.
60 Minutes did a piece, probably 10 years ago, on Tesla's sales model and the battles various states' auto dealers were fighting against it. The guys they interviewed representing the auto dealers just basically justified their existence by saying consumers wouldn't make wise buying choices without the help of a salesperson. I remember thinking how ridiculous it was that a state could even keep Tesla out, and the obvious corruption behind such a mindset.
 

oks10

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60 Minutes did a piece, probably 10 years ago, on Tesla's sales model and the battles various states' auto dealers were fighting against it. The guys they interviewed representing the auto dealers just basically justified their existence by saying consumers wouldn't make wise buying choices without the help of a salesperson. I remember thinking how ridiculous it was that a state could even keep Tesla out, and the obvious corruption behind such a mindset.
The financing department says hi.
 

Binman4OSU

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I've spent the last few weeks searching for and watching documentaries about Elon Musk and his companies. Trying to get a sense of what drives him.

One reoccurring thing he constantly goes to is His quest to make Human a multiplanetary species and is 1000% convinced it is the only way for Humans to continue to survive as the resources of this planet are depleted. He sleeps on the couches of his friends and puts in 12-14 hr days trying to get off planet.

It is a quest that dives his ever waking day, it is THE reason he started Space X...all other wealth he accumulates from all his other companies is invested into Space X and making Humans multiplanetary.

I'm pretty convinced that all public releases, twitter post, business moves etc are ALL very calculated and done in a manner that will benefit him financially in a way that can further his mission of getting off planet.

The guy took all the profit and money he had from his first few business and sunk it + debt into Space X to get it up and running. He has proven time and time again that he is willing to risk EVERYTHING for Space X
 
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Boomer.....

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I think I recalled that he nearly went broke trying to perfect the SpaceX rockets and had only enough money for one more attempt which turned out to be successful.
 

TheMonkey

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60 Minutes did a piece, probably 10 years ago, on Tesla's sales model and the battles various states' auto dealers were fighting against it. The guys they interviewed representing the auto dealers just basically justified their existence by saying consumers wouldn't make wise buying choices without the help of a salesperson. I remember thinking how ridiculous it was that a state could even keep Tesla out, and the obvious corruption behind such a mindset.
That’s definitely changing.
  • On average, buyers spend 2/3 of the buyer’s online before engaging with a salesperson.
  • 87% of Americans dislike something about car shopping at dealerships and 61% feel they’re taken advantage of while there.
  • Less than ⅓ of younger consumers want to conduct car sales in-person at the dealership, and more respondents are interested in contactless service. (McKinsey)
  • Car shoppers express an increased desire to complete some of the car-shopping processes online, especially price negotiations and online financing. (Cars.com)
  • With car buyers making more decisions online and ahead of time, by the time they arrive at the dealership, many of them are likely ready to buy.