Do stars really matter? Let's find out.

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LS1 Z28

Territorial Marshal
Oct 30, 2007
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#1
The star system has been a contentious subject for as long as I can remember. I thought it would be interesting to see how accurate the star system has been during the Gundy era for just our players. I used 24/7's database to analyze Coach Gundy's first 10 recruiting classes from 2005 to 2014. This analysis isn't perfect. There are a few players that never made it to campus, and I had to exclude Brandon Weeden because he didn't have a recruiting profile. But it should be fairly accurate.

2005: (1) 4-star, (14) 3-star, (6) 2-star or lower
2006: (5) 4-star, (21) 3-star, (1) 2-star or lower
2007: (4) 4-star, (17) 3-star, (2) 2-star or lower
2008: (3) 4-star, (22) 3-star, (3) 2-star or lower
2009: (4) 4-star, (18) 3-star, (4) 2-star or lower
2010: (4) 4-star, (23) 3-star, (0) 2-star or lower
2011: (2) 4-star, (21) 3-star, (2) 2-star or lower
2012: (5) 4-star, (15) 3-star, (3) 2-star or lower
2013: (3) 4-star, (18) 3-star, (3) 2-star or lower
2014: (3) 4-star, (23) 3-star, (3) 2-star or lower

Total 4-star players signed: 34
Total 3-star players signed: 192
Total 2-star or lower players signed: 27

Coach Gundy has had a total of 19 players drafted into the NFL that he recruited. 10 were 4-stars, 9 were 3-stars.
4-stars drafted: McBean, Cox, Bryant, Martin, Randle, Gilbert, Furman, Hill, Atemen, Rudolph
3-stars drafted: Robinson, Okung, Hunter, Blackmon, Ogbah, Carson, Taylor, Flowers, Washington

Odds of our signees being drafted by star rating:
4-star: 29.4% (10/34)
3-star: 4.7% (9/192)
2-star or lower: 0%

We have a head coach that basically scoffs at the star system. It's pretty telling that his 4-star signees have been drafted at more than 6X the rate that his 3-stars have been drafted. It's also quite telling that we've never had a 2-star or lower signee drafted. The star rating system isn't perfect, but I definitely think this proves it has some merit.
 
Aug 2, 2011
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#2
Obviously you are correct and anyone who tries to argue with you is confronted by the cold hard facts

The issue we have is we cannot seem to get more than one or two 4stars a year.

So what's the solution?
 
Feb 15, 2017
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#4
You're making a pretty big leap there. Are "stars" supposed to be a predictor of NFL draftability ? No.

Stars are given as an indicaiton of how good a HS player is projected into the College game.
 
Feb 25, 2008
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#5
Obviously you are correct and anyone who tries to argue with you is confronted by the cold hard facts

The issue we have is we cannot seem to get more than one or two 4stars a year.

So what's the solution?
34 total 4 star players / 10 years = 3.4 per year.
 

LS1 Z28

Territorial Marshal
Oct 30, 2007
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#6
Obviously you are correct and anyone who tries to argue with you is confronted by the cold hard facts

The issue we have is we cannot seem to get more than one or two 4stars a year.

So what's the solution?
Everything's open to interpretation. I welcome argument from people that view this from a different perspective. The star rating system should never replace coaching evaluation. Texas has proven over the past decade that 5-star talent doesn't necessarily lead to success on the field. I do feel however that statistics prove that the theory that 'stars don't matter' is incorrect.

I'm not really sure what the solution is. One of the main reasons our recruiting was so successful early in Coach Gundy's career is because we had really good positions coaches. Those coaching staff consistently won recruiting battles against most non-blue blood programs. I'm not sure we can say the same thing about some of our position coaches now.
 
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LS1 Z28

Territorial Marshal
Oct 30, 2007
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#7
34 total 4 star players / 10 years = 3.4 per year.
During Coach Gundy's first 10 years we averaged 3.4 four stars per year. Over the past 4 years we've averaged 1.5 per year, and none of them have been on the defensive side of the ball. That figure could go up slightly if we add Deondrick Glass to this recruiting class. But it seems that we're headed in the wrong direction.
 

LS1 Z28

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Oct 30, 2007
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#8
You're making a pretty big leap there. Are "stars" supposed to be a predictor of NFL draftability ? No.

Stars are given as an indication of how good a HS player is projected into the College game.
I don't disagree. The analysis I did isn't perfect. I just wanted to show the correlation between star ratings, and player success in reference to our own program. The NFL draft was best way I knew to illustrate this point.
 

Cimarron

It's not dying I'm talking about, it's living.
Jun 28, 2007
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#9
Any one who thinks the rankings don’t work I’ll take a random 22 four and five stars against your random two and three stars. Think you can beat me?
 
Aug 16, 2012
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#10
You're making a pretty big leap there. Are "stars" supposed to be a predictor of NFL draftability ? No.

Stars are given as an indicaiton of how good a HS player is projected into the College game.
No, stars are not a gauge of NFL potential, but I would be willing to bet you find stellar players in HS tend to garner more collegiate awards, and those receiving more collegiate awards tend to make it into the NFL, so the correlation would still be valid.
 

LS1 Z28

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Oct 30, 2007
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#12
How many stars were Tyreek and Carson, they seem to be doing well
Tyreek Hill was a 4-star that was recruited by schools like Texas & Alabama. Chris Carson was only a 3-star, but he had some good offers. I think his recruiting battle came down to us and Georgia.
 
Nov 27, 2007
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#14
So what you’re saying is 70% of 4*s that came to Stillwater we’re not good enough to be drafted... so what’s the big deal. ;)
 
Nov 27, 2007
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#16
The star rating system isn't perfect, but I definitely think this proves it has some merit.
I like to think of the recruiting rating and ranking system as that of the weather man. It’s relatively reliable. It’s not hard to look at a kid that’s 6-2, 185, and runs a 4.3 40; say he’s good and slap a 4* on his A$$ Just like it’s not hard to say it’s going to be hot in August. The problem is when they call for a foot a snow and you get a light dusting, if at all. That’s the problem you will always have 2/3*s blow it up and 4/5*s not live up to their potential. To your numbers 70% of guys that were amongst the top of the class did not turn out to be draftable players. You look at the Pro-Bowl and there are more 2/3* than 4/5* players. How can that happen when there are 75ish 4*s drafted every year? So over 10 years you draft 750 4*s but more of the best of the best come from 2/3*s

So I agree that it does have merit and that it gets it right more than it does wrong. But with so many misses and busts it’s not a stretch to say it’s FAR from perfect.
 

RutherfordFan

Federal Marshal
Feb 5, 2008
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#17
The star system has been a contentious subject for as long as I can remember. I thought it would be interesting to see how accurate the star system has been during the Gundy era for just our players. I used 24/7's database to analyze Coach Gundy's first 10 recruiting classes from 2005 to 2014. This analysis isn't perfect. There are a few players that never made it to campus, and I had to exclude Brandon Weeden because he didn't have a recruiting profile. But it should be fairly accurate.

2005: (1) 4-star, (14) 3-star, (6) 2-star or lower
2006: (5) 4-star, (21) 3-star, (1) 2-star or lower
2007: (4) 4-star, (17) 3-star, (2) 2-star or lower
2008: (3) 4-star, (22) 3-star, (3) 2-star or lower
2009: (4) 4-star, (18) 3-star, (4) 2-star or lower
2010: (4) 4-star, (23) 3-star, (0) 2-star or lower
2011: (2) 4-star, (21) 3-star, (2) 2-star or lower
2012: (5) 4-star, (15) 3-star, (3) 2-star or lower
2013: (3) 4-star, (18) 3-star, (3) 2-star or lower
2014: (3) 4-star, (23) 3-star, (3) 2-star or lower

Total 4-star players signed: 34
Total 3-star players signed: 192
Total 2-star or lower players signed: 27

Coach Gundy has had a total of 19 players drafted into the NFL that he recruited. 10 were 4-stars, 9 were 3-stars.
4-stars drafted: McBean, Cox, Bryant, Martin, Randle, Gilbert, Furman, Hill, Atemen, Rudolph
3-stars drafted: Robinson, Okung, Hunter, Blackmon, Ogbah, Carson, Taylor, Flowers, Washington

Odds of our signees being drafted by star rating:
4-star: 29.4% (10/34)
3-star: 4.7% (9/192)
2-star or lower: 0%

We have a head coach that basically scoffs at the star system. It's pretty telling that his 4-star signees have been drafted at more than 6X the rate that his 3-stars have been drafted. It's also quite telling that we've never had a 2-star or lower signee drafted. The star rating system isn't perfect, but I definitely think this proves it has some merit.
I tend to agree with you. However, it fair to say James Washington was a 2 star guy. A week before signing day no offers then osu offers and a few days before Texas does. He maybe was bumped on signing day or after but you get my point. Weeden was a 2 star though perhaps baseball career made it that way.
 
Nov 27, 2007
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#18
Any one who thinks the rankings don’t work I’ll take a random 22 four and five stars against your random two and three stars. Think you can beat me?
Yeah, at random...
The problem is if you pick the best 22 4*/5* vs the best 2/3* based on on-field performance. More often than not, it would be too close to call if not 2/3*s would come out ahead... That’s why there is an issue, and controsoversy.
 

CPTNQUIRK

I'm Your Captain!
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Nov 20, 2006
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#19
I think it is unfair to include only the players that were drafted into the NFL. How many free agents have we had that ended up doing well in the NFL? Dan Bailey and Lane Taylor come to mind. Then there are a bunch of others that have signed that it is too soon to tell, such as Vincent Taylor, Blake Jarwin, Zach Crabtree, Brad Lundblade, DeQuinton Osborne, Chris Lacy and Ramon Richards.
 

Jostate

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Jun 24, 2005
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#20
Yeah, at random...
The problem is if you pick the best 22 4*/5* vs the best 2/3* based on on-field performance. More often than not, it would be too close to call if not 2/3*s would come out ahead... That’s why there is an issue, and controsoversy.
That's true, but that's just because there are so many more 2/3* guys. I am glad to see OSU guys go on to have success in the pros, but that's not the ultimate goal when recruiting. If the goal is to win games, Gundy has been pretty effective with his 3 star guys. If the goal is to win championships, we need more stars.