Covid-19

  • You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.
Oct 30, 2007
4,791
3,894
1,743
1.7% difference is over 5 million people less in the labor force.
In related news:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/job...-9point3-million-amid-economic-reopening.html
Job openings set record of 9.3 million as labor market booms
Job openings in April soared to a record 9.3 million as the economy rapidly recovered from its pandemic depths. The standard set in April was well above the 8.3 million in March that itself was a new high going back to 2000 for the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
 
Oct 30, 2007
4,791
3,894
1,743
Interesting chart. It looks like there's a big spike in job searches following the announcement that states will end enhanced unemployment benefits early, but it tails off a few weeks later. Hopefully that trend shows that people are finding gainful employment. We should find out in the coming months as employment data is released.

On a side note, state unemployment data runs a few weeks behind. Oklahoma's 4.3% unemployment rate is from April. We didn't announce an end to unemployment benefits until May 17th, and they don't end until June 26th. So we won't really know the true impact until July's unemployment numbers are released on Aug. 20th. It will be interesting to see where we are by then.

1623438996633.png
 
Last edited:

Birry

Federal Marshal
Feb 6, 2007
12,960
7,153
1,743
Landlocked
Most people who are able-bodied, but sitting around doing nothing and collecting an unemployment check are NOT going to be the types to plan ahead and go out to find a job until every penny of what they have is gone AND they've mooched off of friends and family long enough that they get sick of dealing with it.

My bet is that we'll see a bump in those #'s in the next couple of months as a few of the decent folks or ones with more motivation go out and get jobs once the money runs out, and we'll see it go up more steadily as the less motivated are forced to get back to work. Obviously some will string it along as before, and I've known many people who have done that in various forms.

Unfortunately, I'm speaking from related experience with some family members, friends, and neighbors who have done all of the shenanigans above. It is not uncommon. And anyone saying that it's rare clearly hasn't lived among/around the group that will do that stuff. It's not a small population.
 

wrenhal

Federal Marshal
Aug 11, 2011
11,133
4,324
1,743
The extended unemployment benefits don't expire until the 26th of this month. I bet we'll see a drop in unemployment rates by the end of next month.
Maybe.
Money has to start running out. They also could just be waiting for that advance on next year's tax refund that starts in July.
Remember, if you normally get some kind of a refund, you'll either want to opt out, or just know that your refund will be smaller or non existent next tax season.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:

cowboyinexile

Have some class
A/V Subscriber
Jun 29, 2004
18,612
10,865
1,743
41
Fairmont, MN
Money has to start running out. They also could just be waiting for that advance on next year's tax refund that starts in July.
Remember, if you normally get done kind of a refund, you'll either want to opt out, or just know that your refund will be smaller or non existent next tax season.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
This is going to be an interesting experiment. I usually get around 1K back. My goal is to be as close to zero as possible but I'm fine with that number. The extra cash is fine now but I realize that by claiming one kid the extra 1250 in my pocket between July and December but I'm going to owe a little next April.

But I'm a single guy who benefits from claiming HOH and but fan only claim one kid due to the divorce decree. For the married couples with alot of kids they are about to get a significant monthly check but that 10K they get next April will be significantly reduced. In the short term it's probably fine as they will have extra cash right now and that's not a bad thing. But come 2022 that might be a problem if they don't change their deductions.

For paying 2021 taxes means I will owe a couple hundred bucks instead of getting $1K back. That's no biggie. 2022 if I don't change my deductions I'm paying $2K. I have plenty of time to prepare for that and will likely change things up to get that number closer to zero, but I'm guessing there are alot of people who aren't paying attention and that could be a problem for them 2 years down the road.

On the other hand this is the closest we will get to UBI in the near term. Those people faced with tax decisions in 2022 might use the early income responsibility and have new business tax breaks to help them out. A family of 4 that is low income and understands the new game on taxation-$500 a month guaranteed might be the thing that spurs them into a business that creates wealth
 
Last edited:

oks10

Territorial Marshal
A/V Subscriber
Sep 9, 2007
9,567
6,388
1,743
Piedmont, OK
This is going to be an interesting experiment. I usually get around 1K back. My goal is to be as close to zero as possible but I'm fine with that number. The extra cash is fine now but I realize that by claiming one kid the extra 1250 in my pocket between July and December but I'm going to owe a little next April.

But I'm a single guy who benefits from claiming HOH and but fan only claim one kid due to the divorce decree. For the married couples with alot of kids they are about to get a significant monthly check but that 10K they get next April will be significantly reduced. In the short term it's probably fine as they will have extra cash right now and that's not a bad thing. But come 2022 that might be a problem if they don't change their deductions.

For paying 2021 taxes means I will owe a couple hundred bucks instead of getting $1K back. That's no biggie. 2022 if I don't change my deductions I'm paying $2K. I have plenty of time to prepare for that and will likely change things up to get that number closer to zero, but I'm guessing there are alot of people who aren't paying attention and that could be a problem for them 2 years down the road.

On the other hand this is the closest we will get to UBI in the near term. Those people faced with tax decisions in 2022 might use the early income responsibility and have new business tax breaks to help them out. A family of 4 that is low income and understands the new game on taxation-$500 a month guaranteed might be the thing that spurs them into a business that creates wealth
It's definitely gonna be interesting to see how many people get surprised next April when they suddenly don't get a big return for some reason... Personally, I'm opting out of the advance payment.
 

Binman4OSU

Legendary Cowboy
Aug 31, 2007
33,660
10,519
1,743
Stupid about AGW!!
It's definitely gonna be interesting to see how many people get surprised next April when they suddenly don't get a big return for some reason... Personally, I'm opting out of the advance payment.
The IRS is supposed to have the website to Opt Out of the Payments up and running on July 1st and the first payment is supposed to go out July 15th.

If ANYONE sees the link to the IRS website portal to opt out PLEASE put a copy of the link here and share it
 

oks10

Territorial Marshal
A/V Subscriber
Sep 9, 2007
9,567
6,388
1,743
Piedmont, OK
The IRS is supposed to have the website to Opt Out of the Payments up and running on July 1st and the first payment is supposed to go out July 15th.

If ANYONE sees the link to the IRS website portal to opt out PLEASE put a copy of the link here and share it
I actually got the letter about it late last week and I'm pretty sure it had the URL listed for it. I'll look again when I'm back home and if it says it I'll post it.