Covid-19

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May 4, 2011
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But I've seen people already saying "but but June of last year we were down numbers as well so oh no look for a resurgence".....

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You can make me eat crow if I'm wrong, but there will be a resurgence in the late fall and winter. It will probably be something like a quarter of what we went through last year at least nationally, but that's still much worse than where we are now and worse than a typical flu season. Vaccines will still help a ton, but a lot of areas are peaking at only 50% of adults and most communities won't do any mitigation either, even if that would just mean masks in public places. Another prediction, the divide over the issue, especially masks and vaccines, is only going to get worse when that resurgence happens.
 

wrenhal

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Aug 11, 2011
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But I've seen people already saying "but but June of last year we were down numbers as well so oh no look for a resurgence".....

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You can make me eat crow if I'm wrong, but there will be a resurgence in the late fall and winter. It will probably be something like a quarter of what we went through last year at least nationally, but that's still much worse than where we are now and worse than a typical flu season. Vaccines will still help a ton, but a lot of areas are peaking at only 50% of adults and most communities won't do any mitigation either, even if that would just mean masks in public places. Another prediction, the divide over the issue, especially masks and vaccines, is only going to get worse when that resurgence happens.
No in beginning of June last year we had very very low numbers and then the surge started wasn't it like late June or early July. And that's what these people are saying is going to happen again.

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May 4, 2011
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Charleston, SC
No in beginning of June last year we had very very low numbers and then the surge started wasn't it like late June or early July. And that's what these people are saying is going to happen again.

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There was an uneven surge in some places in July, but after seeing last fall/winter I'm not sure we can call last July a national surge. We might see a small bump nationally again when things get so hot that no one wants to be outside in the southern half of the US (also roughly where vaccines are lowest), but it won't be as bad as last year and it will probably be uneven across the US again. The real surge will be this fall/winter, but for reference from last year, here's the US overall.
Screenshot_20210605-141324_Chrome.jpg


Here's Mississippi where it's more than a "bump". Only 27.5% of the population there is vaccinated. They seem likely to have a potential surge again this summer.
Screenshot_20210605-141506_Chrome.jpg


For comparison, here's Nebraska, another small state with a very different trajectory in the summer last year and likely again this year with 42.7% of its population vaccinated.
Screenshot_20210605-141542_Chrome.jpg
 
Aug 16, 2012
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Jon Rahm finishes a near historic third round of golf at The Memorial, is on his way to sign his score card when tournament officials inform him his fourth test of the week taken earlier today at the beginning of the round came back positive and he has to withdraw immediately and quarantine until the 15th. Six stroke lead and he has to walk away from an almost positive $1M+ payday.
 
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wrenhal

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Aug 11, 2011
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No in beginning of June last year we had very very low numbers and then the surge started wasn't it like late June or early July. And that's what these people are saying is going to happen again.

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There was an uneven surge in some places in July, but after seeing last fall/winter I'm not sure we can call last July a national surge. We might see a small bump nationally again when things get so hot that no one wants to be outside in the southern half of the US (also roughly where vaccines are lowest), but it won't be as bad as last year and it will probably be uneven across the US again. The real surge will be this fall/winter, but for reference from last year, here's the US overall.
View attachment 90531

Here's Mississippi where it's more than a "bump". Only 27.5% of the population there is vaccinated. They seem likely to have a potential surge again this summer.
View attachment 90532

For comparison, here's Nebraska, another small state with a very different trajectory in the summer last year and likely again this year with 42.7% of its population vaccinated.
View attachment 90533
Ok. Well see then. I wasn't sure whether I remembered that correctly. Obviously I didn't.

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cowboyinexile

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Jun 29, 2004
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Jon Rahm finishes a near historic third round of golf at The Memorial, is on his way to sign his score card when tournament officials inform him his fourth test of the week taken earlier today at the beginning of the round came back positive and he has to withdraw immediately and quarantine until the 15th. Six stroke lead and he has to walk away from an almost positive $1M+ payday.
I'd be asking for a 2nd test. For the money, ensuring PGA status in the future, and Fed Ex points they should have made dang sure he was positive before making him withdraw.

Also, assuming he was vaccinated and is infected he clearly wasn't impacted by having it. I don't have any data to back me up but antocedal evidence suggests a lot of the breakthrough cases are asymptomatic . Bill Maher and a couple of people in the Yankees organization were unfortunate enough to get it after being vaccinated and they wouldn't have known had it not been for mandatory testing. Same thing here-he's running away with a tournament so even if he woke up with a bit of a cough it wasn't enough to make him think it was anything more than allergies. I'm cool with organizations that have billions at risk requiring testing even if you are vaccinated but it's interesting to see that those protocols are catching people who would otherwise have no reason to think they are sick.

It really makes you think about other diseases. I get a flu vaccine every year and have never been sick with the flu. I wonder if there were a couple of times where I got it but my immune system took care of it without me noticing.
 
Aug 16, 2012
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I'd be asking for a 2nd test. For the money, ensuring PGA status in the future, and Fed Ex points they should have made dang sure he was positive before making him withdraw.

Also, assuming he was vaccinated and is infected he clearly wasn't impacted by having it. I don't have any data to back me up but antocedal evidence suggests a lot of the breakthrough cases are asymptomatic . Bill Maher and a couple of people in the Yankees organization were unfortunate enough to get it after being vaccinated and they wouldn't have known had it not been for mandatory testing. Same thing here-he's running away with a tournament so even if he woke up with a bit of a cough it wasn't enough to make him think it was anything more than allergies. I'm cool with organizations that have billions at risk requiring testing even if you are vaccinated but it's interesting to see that those protocols are catching people who would otherwise have no reason to think they are sick.

It really makes you think about other diseases. I get a flu vaccine every year and have never been sick with the flu. I wonder if there were a couple of times where I got it but my immune system took care of it without me noticing.
The head doc of the PGA ran his positive sample a second time two hours after the first before notifying him. Guy played 24 holes of golf today (yesterday's round was suspended) including a hole in one, tied a record for lowest 9-hole total and largest lead. There are many on social media pushing for him to be allowed to play the final round as a single. There is a rumor (have not seen it confirmed) that he was not vaccinated. He was in close contact with dozens, if not hundreds of people today. Be interesting to watch this shake out
 

Duke Silver

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The head doc of the PGA ran his positive sample a second time two hours after the first before notifying him. Guy played 24 holes of golf today (yesterday's round was suspended) including a hole in one, tied a record for lowest 9-hole total and largest lead. There are many on social media pushing for him to be allowed to play the final round as a single. There is a rumor (have not seen it confirmed) that he was not vaccinated. He was in close contact with dozens, if not hundreds of people today. Be interesting to watch this shake out
If he was vaccinated, he should be allowed to play. If he wasn’t, he should go home because he probably infected a ton of people
 

cowboyinexile

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The head doc of the PGA ran his positive sample a second time two hours after the first before notifying him. Guy played 24 holes of golf today (yesterday's round was suspended) including a hole in one, tied a record for lowest 9-hole total and largest lead. There are many on social media pushing for him to be allowed to play the final round as a single. There is a rumor (have not seen it confirmed) that he was not vaccinated. He was in close contact with dozens, if not hundreds of people today. Be interesting to watch this shake out

If he wasn't vaccinated then it's on him. Kudos for his play so far but he knew the risks. He made his decision and it sucks for him but there are consequences to our choices.
 

RxCowboy

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If he wasn't vaccinated then it's on him. Kudos for his play so far but he knew the risks. He made his decision and it sucks for him but there are consequences to our choices.
He received his 1st shot within the week after coming in close contact w a known case. No time to build up any immunity
Sounds familiar.

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Binman4OSU

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Aug 31, 2007
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Stupid about AGW!!
If he wasn't vaccinated then it's on him. Kudos for his play so far but he knew the risks. He made his decision and it sucks for him but there are consequences to our choices.
one of the other consequences is that he would have earned a PGA tour card exemption on the Tour for the next 3 years!!!

The Memorial is 1 of only 3 special tournaments each year where the winner gets a 3 year card exemption to play on the PGA Tour...and every win after the memorial adds an additional year of exemption up to 5 years max.

So he lost A LOT more than just a shot at winning this tournament