Covid-19

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TheMonkey

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This isn’t a pro or anti mask post y’all do what you want but that graph isn’t representative anymore. Certainly was applicable at the time but we know more now. It takes and “almost three month” period over countries it doesn’t identify but lists Asian countries and the study ended before July 6th 2020. In other words this is data from when had the smallest sample, least knowledge of the virus, and they are giving credit to masks in Asia where we now no that isn’t the case.....at least entirely. This data was relevant then and would be a good reason to implement mask mandates. and Since I can’t see all the countries no one can speak to it exactly but given the the vast majority of the world was under a mask mandate right before/after the study and cases and deaths were higher most everywhere last fall the conclusion has to change. The graph would certainly change if for no other reason America (at least 90% of population) was under a mandate when the overwhelming majority of our issues occurred. This would be like posting data from April 2020 about surface contact.....that’s what we thought then....the data has changed.
While I get what you are saying, none of this negates the findings. It simply means newer data could support or refute those findings. This paper from January 2021 comes to the same conclusion.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

Our review of the literature offers evidence in favor of widespread mask use as source control to reduce community transmission: Nonmedical masks use materials that obstruct particles of the necessary size; people are most infectious in the initial period postinfection, where it is common to have few or no symptoms (45, 46, 141); nonmedical masks have been effective in reducing transmission of respiratory viruses; and places and time periods where mask usage is required or widespread have shown substantially lower community transmission.

The available evidence suggests that near-universal adoption of nonmedical masks when out in public, in combination with complementary public health measures, could successfully reduce Re
to below 1, thereby reducing community spread if such measures are sustained. Economic analysis suggests that mask wearing mandates could add 1 trillion dollars to the US GDP (32, 34)

Penalty. Unnecessary use of logic, reasoning, and critical thinking on this thread.
Funny, but where did I use anything other than this in my argument? Both sides can use logic, reasoning, and critical thinking... but it doesn’t mean they’re both correct. Donny made some good points though.
 
Mar 11, 2006
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While I get what you are saying, none of this negates the findings. It simply means newer data could support or refute those findings. This paper from January 2021 comes to the same conclusion.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

Our review of the literature offers evidence in favor of widespread mask use as source control to reduce community transmission: Nonmedical masks use materials that obstruct particles of the necessary size; people are most infectious in the initial period postinfection, where it is common to have few or no symptoms (45, 46, 141); nonmedical masks have been effective in reducing transmission of respiratory viruses; and places and time periods where mask usage is required or widespread have shown substantially lower community transmission.

The available evidence suggests that near-universal adoption of nonmedical masks when out in public, in combination with complementary public health measures, could successfully reduce Re
to below 1, thereby reducing community spread if such measures are sustained. Economic analysis suggests that mask wearing mandates could add 1 trillion dollars to the US GDP (32, 34)


Funny, but where did I use anything other than this in my argument? Both sides can use logic, reasoning, and critical thinking... but it doesn’t mean they’re both correct. Donny made some good points though.
Comment wasn’t in reply to your post. Just that we have had 960+pages of either panic-porn, fear-mongering, unsubstantiated rumors, suggestions that COVID is a myth, belief that it would simply go away when summer started, that the fall 2020 football season could not be played, claims that COVID caused more deaths than any other cause in US last year, that some masks work and some don’t, and everything in between.

I have no argument that wearing a mask works in many situations. For example, subways, airplanes, or times with extended close contact with people. But, as I think you know, there is a lot of data that show counties and cities without mask mandates do not have worse case or death rates.

I believe mask wearing mandates added $1 trillion to the US GDP about as much as I believe RX’s claim that COVID hospitalizations in the US cost $31 Trillion.
 

Donnyboy

Lettin' the high times carry the low....
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While I get what you are saying, none of this negates the findings. It simply means newer data could support or refute those findings. This paper from January 2021 comes to the same conclusion.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

Our review of the literature offers evidence in favor of widespread mask use as source control to reduce community transmission: Nonmedical masks use materials that obstruct particles of the necessary size; people are most infectious in the initial period postinfection, where it is common to have few or no symptoms (45, 46, 141); nonmedical masks have been effective in reducing transmission of respiratory viruses; and places and time periods where mask usage is required or widespread have shown substantially lower community transmission.

The available evidence suggests that near-universal adoption of nonmedical masks when out in public, in combination with complementary public health measures, could successfully reduce Re
to below 1, thereby reducing community spread if such measures are sustained. Economic analysis suggests that mask wearing mandates could add 1 trillion dollars to the US GDP (32, 34)


Funny, but where did I use anything other than this in my argument? Both sides can use logic, reasoning, and critical thinking... but it doesn’t mean they’re both correct. Donny made some good points though.
Yeah it kinda does....... the study started when the virus was new. They reference that they are hanging their hat on Asian nation data. The main reason for low numbers in Asia isn’t mask it’s built in natural immunity. They also are missing the majority of data from the other countries as alarming data they are quoting after masks were in place. So given that they were using Asian countries (China has to be the biggest data point and larger than many of the other 197 combined) and incorrectly giving masks credit.....and given that the numbers got worse than they are even calling as bad after masks in many others the entire study changes. All the variables change. You have more data and know every variable changed. And not a little bit....like massive changes to both. Its no longer applicable. Like I said good study.....this is the research we needed to be doing....it’s a great reason to put a mask mandate in place at that time but literally every input to this has changed.
 

StillwaterTownie

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I have no argument that wearing a mask works in many situations. For example, subways, airplanes, or times with extended close contact with people. But, as I think you know, there is a lot of data that show counties and cities without mask mandates do not have worse case or death rates.
But like it or not, Stillwater is easy proof that required mask ordinance mandates when instigated last summer do work to reduce COVID-19 case rates as well as deaths. The proof is in the data as follows:

Claremore, OK, pop. 18,473, mask mandate started Dec. 2020, repealed April 5, Total COVID-19 Cases: 5959, deaths: 112.

Stillwater, OK, pop. 50,299. mask mandate started July 2020 in effect until May 25, Total COVID-19 Cases: 6181, deaths: only 36.

Even if you want to cut Stillwater's population by as much as one half to account for OSU students being considerably less likely to get tested for COVID-19, Stillwater still looks better, especially for deaths.

If you got figures proving how cities with late or no required mask mandates did better or no worse, then put the data up.

I'm somewhat sympathetic toward those who think if masks were highly effective, then Stillwater numbers should be lower. But masks are like life jackets. They don't work unless you got one on. The few people who I know of who got sick from covid think it came from not wearing masks, like while having company over at home.
 
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Rixaroo

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But like it or not, Stillwater is easy proof that required mask ordinance mandates when instigated last summer do work to reduce COVID-19 case rates as well as deaths. The proof is in the data as follows:

Claremore, OK, pop. 18,473, mask mandate started Dec. 2020, repealed April 5, Total COVID-19 Cases: 5959, deaths: 112.

Stillwater, OK, pop. 50,299. mask mandate started July 2020 in effect until May 25, Total COVID-19 Cases: 6181, deaths: only 36.

Even if you want to cut Stillwater's population by as much as one half to account for OSU students being considerably less likely to get tested for COVID-19, Stillwater still looks better, especially for deaths.

If you got figures proving how cities with late or no required mask mandates did better or no worse, then put the data up.

I'm somewhat sympathetic toward those who think if masks were highly effective, then Stillwater numbers should be lower. But masks are like life jackets. They don't work unless you got one on. The few people who I know of who got sick from covid think it came from not wearing masks, like while having company over at home.
That's not proof, that's anecdotal evidence.
 
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But like it or not, Stillwater is easy proof that required mask ordinance mandates when instigated last summer do work to reduce COVID-19 case rates as well as deaths. The proof is in the data as follows:

Claremore, OK, pop. 18,473, mask mandate started Dec. 2020, repealed April 5, Total COVID-19 Cases: 5959, deaths: 112.

Stillwater, OK, pop. 50,299. mask mandate started July 2020 in effect until May 25, Total COVID-19 Cases: 6181, deaths: only 36.

Even if you want to cut Stillwater's population by as much as one half to account for OSU students being considerably less likely to get tested for COVID-19, Stillwater still looks better, especially for deaths.

If you got figures proving how cities with late or no required mask mandates did better or no worse, then put the data up.

I'm somewhat sympathetic toward those who think if masks were highly effective, then Stillwater numbers should be lower. But masks are like life jackets. They don't work unless you got one on. The few people who I know of who got sick from covid think it came from not wearing masks, like while having company over at home.
That's not proof. You have to consider the cities' demographics. Claremore has a higher percentage of the population that's elderly. Stillwater is a college town. According to Wikipedia, the median age is 12 years younger than Claremore. Presumably, many of the covid cases in Stillwater were college students which have much higher survival rate than the elderly.
 

oks10

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We went to the NW OKC Home Depot yesterday to buy some plants and I was rather surprised with the number of people we saw wearing masks despite the mandate being over. We didn't wear ours while we were outside in the garden center and we were most definitely in the minority. (We wore them inside, just not while we were browsing the garden center.)
 

TheMonkey

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Yeah it kinda does....... the study started when the virus was new. They reference that they are hanging their hat on Asian nation data. The main reason for low numbers in Asia isn’t mask it’s built in natural immunity. They also are missing the majority of data from the other countries as alarming data they are quoting after masks were in place. So given that they were using Asian countries (China has to be the biggest data point and larger than many of the other 197 combined) and incorrectly giving masks credit.....and given that the numbers got worse than they are even calling as bad after masks in many others the entire study changes. All the variables change. You have more data and know every variable changed. And not a little bit....like massive changes to both. Its no longer applicable. Like I said good study.....this is the research we needed to be doing....it’s a great reason to put a mask mandate in place at that time but literally every input to this has changed.
You’re giving good counterpoints, but where do you get information stating Asian countries had natural immunity? I feel like I’m providing data in favor of mask mandates, then you’re challenging the methodology without any documented evidence supporting your argument. I’m not saying you’re wrong, but it conveniently makes it hard for someone to debate with you when you avoid citing any references.

And the first study I cited was just one of many out there in support of mask mandates. I provided a second example as well.
 

Rack

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I think we should have a mask mandate, but only for the unvaccinated. All vaccinated people should be free to resume normal life...the problem would be enforcement however as the unvaccinated are the same people who won't wear mask anyway. Ugh :facepalm:
 
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My rather simple look at the weekly zip map in Tulsa county showed that cases were increasing more quickly where there was not a mask mandate than where there was, although eventually the case counts were very high in Tulsa as well. This was also constantly reiterated by the mayor and other officials, the cases were coming from outside of Tulsa proper.
 
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Saturday I attended a dinner meeting of approxiamtely 300 persons of all ages in a large confined barn like place. NOT ONE WAS WEARING A MASK! This suggests to me that this virus is going to around for a long time with plenty of time to mutate and become increasing hard to stop.
 

StillwaterTownie

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That's not proof. You have to consider the cities' demographics. Claremore has a higher percentage of the population that's elderly. Stillwater is a college town. According to Wikipedia, the median age is 12 years younger than Claremore. Presumably, many of the covid cases in Stillwater were college students which have much higher survival rate than the elderly.
No doubt you failed to notice that I wrote that even if you cut Stillwater's population by 1/2 to account for students much less likely to get tested for COVID-19, it still looks better.
 

Rack

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Saturday I attended a dinner meeting of approxiamtely 300 persons of all ages in a large confined barn like place. NOT ONE WAS WEARING A MASK! This suggests to me that this virus is going to around for a long time with plenty of time to mutate and become increasing hard to stop.
What is your opinion about the vaccinated as mutations appear? Are we going to be safe from this spread and will this spread that you think will happen actually just move us closer to herd immunity? My church is meeting and second service crowds are around 800 and no one is masked...about four weeks at least or so into this bigger crowd...even higher than pre pandemic . We go to the early service with around 100 or so socially distant church goers but unmasked as well. Earlier on in the pandemic we had pretty significant outbreaks in the congregation but no deaths, however several very sick icu patients including my uncle(who has since had his vaccine as well). I’d estimate about only 40% have had the vaccine, maximum,( mainly due to so many having the virus already m, children or being anti vaccines.) However, there is a push to get those who want to go on missions vaccinated. What are your thoughts on these gatherings of likely, at least temporarily, immune people from both infection and vaccine? I hope we are past the mass outbreaks with the level of infection and vaccination, but who knows?
 
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cowboyinexile

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No doubt you failed to notice that I wrote that even if you cut Stillwater's population by 1/2 to account for students much less likely to get tested for COVID-19, it still looks better.
I don't disagree with your views on masks but comparing how one city to another isn't a statistical comparison. There are way too many factors that could impact each city's results.
 

UrbanCowboy1

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Saturday I attended a dinner meeting of approxiamtely 300 persons of all ages in a large confined barn like place. NOT ONE WAS WEARING A MASK! This suggests to me that this virus is going to around for a long time with plenty of time to mutate and become increasing hard to stop.
I think that's just called a barn.
 
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That's a Huge Number
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1389307546805182466
While I would guess that seroprevalence is near there, I'm assuming this is referring to test positivity and that the headline is a bit misleading. They have massive shortages and extremely uneven access to testing. When that happens you lose your ability to do as much asymptomatic testing. So, you can't extrapolate to the entire population.
NYC hit 40% test positivity at their peak and other states that have had severe outbreaks got close to that number. This is sampling methods 101.

That said, the outbreak in India is horrific and a number of modelers think that India may only be catching 10 to 20% of their deaths and 3 to 4% of their cases. Meaning, their cases may be 25 to 30 times higher than what's being reported and deaths may be 5 to 10 times what is being reported. For reference, some of the highest estimation of missing cases from places like NYC was that cases were 20x higher and deaths 1.5x. It's awful in India and there's not much anyone can do to fix it for about a month.
 

Rack

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So we go back to the question of origin...what if "accidentally on purpose" China released this thing from a lab in Wuhan? What should be the global ramifications for the CCP?

Btw, GYDV...Get Yo Damn Vaccine!

OKC Mayor Holt on the vaccine today or yesterday...
"if you end up in the hospital, in ICU, and you die, all because you refuse to get the vaccine that would really be a tragedy."
 
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