Covid-19

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LS1 Z28

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In a telephone interview the next day, Dr. Fauci acknowledged that he had slowly but deliberately been moving the goal posts. He is doing so, he said, partly based on new science, and partly on his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks.
I can give him a little bit of a pass on the mask guidance, because everything was so new at the time, but this is what really upset me. He admitted to intentionally misleading the public, because he didn't think that they were ready to hear the truth. How could anyone possibly trust a public health official after they've admitted to changing their numbers based off of polling data?

The R0 estimates suggest that a 60-70% vaccination rate is necessary to achieve herd immunity. This is the official position of the WHO. I don't think that Dr. Fauci is moving the goal posts based off new science, I think he's doing it to encourage more people to get vaccinated.

Dr. Fauci doesn't appear to have any problem with misleading the public if he feels he's doing it for the greater good. His opinion means nothing to me now, because I don't trust him to tell me the truth.
 
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Got some feedback on the J&J shot from a co-worker. Guy I work with got his J&J shot yesterday. Said he felt like a million bucks today. Said he had some fatigue last night but he slept great and today he feels really good.

Said outside of the fatigue and sore spot where the shot was given there wasn't much of any side effects so far. Will be interesting to see J&J single dose side effects. Don't really see too many complaints about any for that shot
I got the J&J jab 1 hour ago. No ill effects thus far. The jab itself stung like a hornet though.
 

TheMonkey

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I can give him a little bit of a pass on the mask guidance, because everything was so new at the time, but this is what really upset me. He admitted to intentionally misleading the public, because he didn't think that they were ready to hear the truth. How could anyone possibly trust a public health official after they've admitted to changing their numbers based off of polling data?

The R0 estimates suggest that a 60-70% vaccination rate is necessary to achieve herd immunity. This is the official position of the WHO. I don't think that Dr. Fauci is moving the goal posts based off new science, I think he's doing it to encourage more people to get vaccinated.

Dr. Fauci doesn't appear to have any problem with misleading the public if he feels he's doing it for the greater good. His opinion means nothing to me now, because I don't trust him to tell me the truth.
I can understand the skepticism. As for the science and the R0 you quoted, here is more from the NYT article I referenced.
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The original assumption that it would take 60 to 70 percent immunity to stop the disease was based on early data from China and Italy, health experts noted.

Epidemiologists watching how fast cases doubled in those outbreaks calculated that the virus’s reproduction number, or R0 — how many new victims each carrier infected — was about 3. So two out of three potential victims would have to become immune before each carrier infected fewer than one. When each carrier infects fewer than one new victim, the outbreak slowly dies out.

Two out of three is 66.7 percent, which established the range of 60 to 70 percent for herd immunity.

Reinforcing that notion was a study conducted by the French military on the crew of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, which had an outbreak in late March, said Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The study found that 1,064 of the 1,568 sailors aboard, or about 68 percent, had tested positive for the virus.

But the carrier returned to port while the outbreak was still in progress, and the crew went into quarantine, so it was unclear whether the virus was finished infecting new sailors even after 68 percent had caught it.

Also, outbreaks aboard ships are poor models for those on land because infections move much faster in the close quarters of a vessel than in a free-roaming civilian population, said Dr. Natalie E. Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida.

More important, the early estimates from Wuhan and Italy were later revised upward, Dr. Lipsitch noted, once Chinese scientists realized they had undercounted the number of victims of the first wave. It took about two months to be certain that there were many asymptomatic people who had also spread the virus.

It also became clearer later that “superspreader events,” in which one person infects dozens or even hundreds of others, played a large role in spreading Covid-19. Such events, in “normal” populations — in which no one wears masks and everyone attends events like parties, basketball tournaments or Broadway shows — can push the reproduction number upward to 4, 5 or even 6, experts said. Consequently, those scenarios call for higher herd immunity; for example, at an R0 of 5, more than four out of five people, or 80 percent, must be immune to slow down the virus.

Further complicating matters, there is a growing consensus among scientists that the virus itself is becoming more transmissible. A variant “Italian strain” with the mutation known as D614G has spread much faster than the original Wuhan variant. A newly identified mutation, sometimes called N501Y, that may make the virus even more infectious has recently appeared in Britain, South Africa and elsewhere.
 

Rack

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Are there people here saying they are refusing to get the vaccine?
There had been in the past and a ton of people read this board who are on the fence. I was on that same fence six months ago until it started effecting close family snd then I was like find me a shot I’m taking it!! Those who can’t change their opinion based on new facts are stuck to repeat the problems of their past. It’s ok to change ones mind and this is something I think my story can help with others who seem dead set in their anti vaccine stance.
 
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oks10

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Anxiety more than likely.
Probably. I even got myself a little psyched out when I got my first dose. I got in my head thinking about any reaction I might have during my hour long solo drive back home. Thinking back on it, I probably should have had someone come with me just in case. lol
 

Rack

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Probably. I even got myself a little psyched out when I got my first dose. I got in my head thinking about any reaction I might have during my hour long solo drive back home. Thinking back on it, I probably should have had someone come with me just in case. lol
Me too I passed out five minutes after my first shot on December 29th.
 

UrbanCowboy1

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So out of roughly 3 million vaccinated in Michigan less than .01% had symptoms and 1 in a million died? Those kind of numbers make Jonas Salk envious. I know you like to push an agenda but those results are the opposite of what you are trying to do here.
And they were from January, and if you read to the second freaking paragraph they say that some of them had tested positive before receiving the vaccine.

If the vaccines don't work, then why are Israel's cases hitting the floor?
 

Binman4OSU

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Stupid about AGW!!
And they were from January, and if you read to the second freaking paragraph they say that some of them had tested positive before receiving the vaccine.

If the vaccines don't work, then why are Israel's cases hitting the floor?
vaccines DO work and theirs is hitting the floor the closer they get to Heard Immunity through vaccination. % wise they are way ahead of anyone else in 1st and 2nd shots which both provide some level of immunity. As we get closer to that magic 75% heard immunity number of vaccinations I would expect the US numbers will do the same. We just are not there yet.

This is from a MONTH ago...where they were. Just think where they are now in terms of % of different populations having the shot.

As of March 15, 50 percent of Israel's population had been fully vaccinated, and 60 percent had its first dose. The comparable figures for the United States were 12 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Among Israelis ages 70–79, 91 percent had been fully vaccinated, and 96 percent had received a first dose.
 

StillwaterTownie

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How is it that we are well on the path to recovery and normalcy, yet there is more arguing than ever? It's like this has taken another political turn and there are two extreme sides with no middle ground. Once again it seems like the media is doing their job and creating divide.
During a rare bout with the truth while Trump was president, he said about CNN, "It's covid, covid, covid". It's largely still the truth. At least Trump is not still around to create more divide and conflict as president.