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I can understand the skepticism. As for the science and the R0 you quoted, here is more from the NYT article I referenced.
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The original assumption that it would take 60 to 70 percent immunity to stop the disease was based on early data from China and Italy, health experts noted.
Epidemiologists watching how fast cases doubled in those outbreaks calculated that the virus’s reproduction number, or R0 — how many new victims each carrier infected — was about 3. So two out of three potential victims would have to become immune before each carrier infected fewer than one. When each carrier infects fewer than one new victim, the outbreak slowly dies out.
Two out of three is 66.7 percent, which established the range of 60 to 70 percent for herd immunity.
Reinforcing that notion was a study conducted by the French military on the crew of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, which had an outbreak in late March, said Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The study found that 1,064 of the 1,568 sailors aboard, or about 68 percent, had tested positive for the virus.
But the carrier returned to port while the outbreak was still in progress, and the crew went into quarantine, so it was unclear whether the virus was finished infecting new sailors even after 68 percent had caught it.
Also, outbreaks aboard ships are poor models for those on land because infections move much faster in the close quarters of a vessel than in a free-roaming civilian population, said Dr. Natalie E. Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida.
More important, the early estimates from Wuhan and Italy were later revised upward, Dr. Lipsitch noted, once Chinese scientists realized they had undercounted the number of victims of the first wave. It took about two months to be certain that there were many asymptomatic people who had also spread the virus.
It also became clearer later that “superspreader events,” in which one person infects dozens or even hundreds of others, played a large role in spreading Covid-19. Such events, in “normal” populations — in which no one wears masks and everyone attends events like parties, basketball tournaments or Broadway shows — can push the reproduction number upward to 4, 5 or even 6, experts said. Consequently, those scenarios call for higher herd immunity; for example, at an R0 of 5, more than four out of five people, or 80 percent, must be immune to slow down the virus.
Further complicating matters, there is a growing consensus among scientists that the virus itself is becoming more transmissible. A variant “Italian strain” with the mutation known as D614G has spread much faster than the original Wuhan variant. A newly identified mutation, sometimes called N501Y, that may make the virus even more infectious has recently appeared in Britain, South Africa and elsewhere.
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The original assumption that it would take 60 to 70 percent immunity to stop the disease was based on early data from China and Italy, health experts noted.
Epidemiologists watching how fast cases doubled in those outbreaks calculated that the virus’s reproduction number, or R0 — how many new victims each carrier infected — was about 3. So two out of three potential victims would have to become immune before each carrier infected fewer than one. When each carrier infects fewer than one new victim, the outbreak slowly dies out.
Two out of three is 66.7 percent, which established the range of 60 to 70 percent for herd immunity.
Reinforcing that notion was a study conducted by the French military on the crew of the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, which had an outbreak in late March, said Dr. Christopher J.L. Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
The study found that 1,064 of the 1,568 sailors aboard, or about 68 percent, had tested positive for the virus.
But the carrier returned to port while the outbreak was still in progress, and the crew went into quarantine, so it was unclear whether the virus was finished infecting new sailors even after 68 percent had caught it.
Also, outbreaks aboard ships are poor models for those on land because infections move much faster in the close quarters of a vessel than in a free-roaming civilian population, said Dr. Natalie E. Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida.
More important, the early estimates from Wuhan and Italy were later revised upward, Dr. Lipsitch noted, once Chinese scientists realized they had undercounted the number of victims of the first wave. It took about two months to be certain that there were many asymptomatic people who had also spread the virus.
It also became clearer later that “superspreader events,” in which one person infects dozens or even hundreds of others, played a large role in spreading Covid-19. Such events, in “normal” populations — in which no one wears masks and everyone attends events like parties, basketball tournaments or Broadway shows — can push the reproduction number upward to 4, 5 or even 6, experts said. Consequently, those scenarios call for higher herd immunity; for example, at an R0 of 5, more than four out of five people, or 80 percent, must be immune to slow down the virus.
Further complicating matters, there is a growing consensus among scientists that the virus itself is becoming more transmissible. A variant “Italian strain” with the mutation known as D614G has spread much faster than the original Wuhan variant. A newly identified mutation, sometimes called N501Y, that may make the virus even more infectious has recently appeared in Britain, South Africa and elsewhere.
There had been in the past and a ton of people read this board who are on the fence. I was on that same fence six months ago until it started effecting close family snd then I was like find me a shot I’m taking it!! Those who can’t change their opinion based on new facts are stuck to repeat the problems of their past. It’s ok to change ones mind and this is something I think my story can help with others who seem dead set in their anti vaccine stance.
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vaccines DO work and theirs is hitting the floor the closer they get to Heard Immunity through vaccination. % wise they are way ahead of anyone else in 1st and 2nd shots which both provide some level of immunity. As we get closer to that magic 75% heard immunity number of vaccinations I would expect the US numbers will do the same. We just are not there yet.
This is from a MONTH ago...where they were. Just think where they are now in terms of % of different populations having the shot.
As of March 15, 50 percent of Israel's population had been fully vaccinated, and 60 percent had its first dose. The comparable figures for the United States were 12 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Among Israelis ages 70–79, 91 percent had been fully vaccinated, and 96 percent had received a first dose.
This is from a MONTH ago...where they were. Just think where they are now in terms of % of different populations having the shot.
As of March 15, 50 percent of Israel's population had been fully vaccinated, and 60 percent had its first dose. The comparable figures for the United States were 12 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Among Israelis ages 70–79, 91 percent had been fully vaccinated, and 96 percent had received a first dose.
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So its been nearly two days since my second pfizer shot. I had a slight fever the night of that went away by morning. The real kicker was that the entire next day I felt I had rana marathon in my sleep. Took the day off work and slept 75% of the day. Today I woke up and felt fine.
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