Covid-19

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Jul 5, 2020
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There are great places for that line. This isn’t it.
i didn’t misread your insults at all. I asked you to back up a reason . You couldn’t, and became a pissy child. That is the cliff notes.
And to show how pissy and childish you are, I tell you that @docjoctoo and I are both docs and you put it in quotes.
Pathetic and insecure.
It’s quite moronic to sarcastically request someone to “back up a reason” when 1) I already did, and 2) it’s simply a choice I’m making and not subject to your approval...“DOCTOR” steross
 

steross

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Mar 31, 2004
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Too bad your physician skills don’t allow you to see my original post made the same point.
Gee, if somehow in this sea of rapid fire posts you think I missed one that would have answered my question to you, you could have pointed me in that direction if you were a reasonable person. Or, you can act like a twelve year old with her feelings hurt.

Your choice. But I have a pretty good idea which way you are going to go.
 
May 4, 2011
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My use of the term “early adopter” is relative, relative to my own peer group.
So if your "peer group" delays, you're going to delay more, even if millions of people take it, including thousands that are your same age. It's hard not to see that as just fear and a desire to make others you know well go first because you're scared. Beyond that, it's hard to see what the rationale is.
 

ODMcB

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Jun 20, 2012
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Virus May Have Arrived in U.S. in December, but Didn’t Spread Until Later

Blood samples collected in mid-December indicate possible infections more than a month before the known first case of Covid-19, but do not show community transmission.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/01/health/coronavirus-december-arrival.html

There has been a good deal of speculation that COVID was here in the US as early as November 2019. This study suggests they may not have been wrong.
CIM quoting nytimes...just for the record, folks.
 

llcoolw

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Feb 7, 2005
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Care to share your resource with the rest of us?
That’s where things get weird. I hope he’s flipped a lid. The latest predictions are pretty out there. Along the lines of utilities collapsing due to worker shortages. So I’m no longer on board with being a follower of his, but I’ll agree with him that yes, it’s going to get worse and there’s a significant chance it’ll be worse than the first.
 
May 4, 2011
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That’s where things get weird. I hope he’s flipped a lid. The latest predictions are pretty out there. Along the lines of utilities collapsing due to worker shortages. So I’m no longer on board with being a follower of his, but I’ll agree with him that yes, it’s going to get worse and there’s a significant chance it’ll be worse than the first.
Ok. Who is this? Can you provide a name and/or link to these predictions? Otherwise, this sounds like a clickbait headline
 

wrenhal

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Aug 11, 2011
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One study of 6000 people with a bunch tested multiple times over 7 months or so, showed very high viral memory response similar to many diseases that create multi year immunity.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
And, other people have gotten it more than once in a shorter time frame than that.

As I said, we do not know.
Last I saw, there were only 4 cases worldwide where people got it twice and they weren't even sure they did due to potential false positives.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
 

steross

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Last I saw, there were only 4 cases worldwide where people got it twice and they weren't even sure they did due to potential false positives.

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
There are more and they are certain on some As they were able to phenotype the virus and the person had been infected with two different strains.
Four reported cases does not mean four cases. I’ve personally seen several return with symptoms after a long period of return to baseline. Are those new infections or a reactivation or even a different virus but still testing positive? We don’t know, yet.
 

Birry

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Feb 6, 2007
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See, that is a very good point. I’m sort of wondering the same. I’m an ER doc but have had it so Have at least some immunity. Should I wait? Problem is I don’t know how long it lasts and I am very, very exposed.
I could easily see it being a regular booster for frontline folks until we know how long the immunity lasts from contracting the virus or getting the vaccine. I suppose nobody knows. Also, it would seem that the vaccine efforts would start by having short-term goals: protect against severe symptoms and death, prevent unmitigated community spread, and reduce strain on the medical system and NOT necessarily eradication. Eradication will depend on how long immunity lasts, right?
 

llcoolw

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Feb 7, 2005
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Ok. Who is this? Can you provide a name and/or link to these predictions? Otherwise, this sounds like a clickbait headline
It is clickbait. That’s why I won’t link it. I’ve talked about this website many times here. Thanks to @Deere Poke, godlikeproductions has been a game changer for me. I trade in metals and currencies for excitement and conspiracies are the biggest driver in fluctuations. So that website is number one in congregations of conspiracy theorists from around the world. A couple thousand stories start there everyday but if you have the time, you can sort quickly through them to see which could potentially be real. Thereby giving me, in some cases, huge lead times to move. I’m small time, it’s just me but knowing things like 80-20 rules and human panic and/or gossip really are the main drivers in these markets. Basically I look at major subjects, see which way the group think goes and then I do the opposite. Kind of like walking up to the craps table and betting the “Not Come” line on a Saturday night.

Doing this for a few years now, so I’m getting pretty good at weeding out the BS. Which is 99.9% of it. For instance, GLP is reporting that a Mosad Chief has been assassinated last night. I go to Iran’s news sites and see nothing there. If I had, maybe it’s time to look at some shekels. Or defense stocks.

This website has a user by the name of Deplorable Recollector. It has an easy member search. You can’t miss his thread. It’s almost at 10,000 responses. You can follow it from January to present and see it in real time how he got the lockdowns correct months in advance and from Romania even. Lately, he started going into conspiracy realms pretty hard and that red flags it for me or maybe I’m just in denial that it could go that badly. He’s now talking Armageddon type crap so I’m not listening as hard as I was.


Decided to add his last update here but it’s from 11-26. Enjoy.


Apparently, the restrictions in Europe are working.


I say apparently, because they aren't exactly working as intended, neither they work with same efficiency in all places.


The results of the restrictions, which are relative, at best, are less effective and take longer compared to the lock-downs in the spring.


After a month (or more, in some countries) the number of cases are on a downward path...but hospitalizations and ICU admissions are on a plateau, or, in some countries, on a slight downward slope.


The number of cases in Europe is going down, hospitalizations and ICU admissions, not so much, if at all.
I do not see the current restrictions being efficient after mid-December.


Europe number of cases, hospitalizations and ICU admissions will start to rise again around mid-December. There are already signs that current restrictions "capped" already in their efficiency.

I believe that the current restrictions in Europe aren't able to perform for much longer, and there will be another spike after mid-December.




Europe is not under a lock-down, but the current restrictions are very costly, both economically (tons of businesses closed) and sanitary (hospitalizations and ICU admissions are still too high).


Since the beginning of this thread, I have explained that we only have 3 ways to deal with the pandemic : full lock-downs, no lock-downs, and partial lock-downs.


Full lock-downs , if they last 2 to 3 months, will ensure at least 6 months without restrictions.

Partial lock-downs will have to be cycled every 3 months or so.

No lock-downs at all...well, we didn't tried that yet.



Obviously, as I have been said from the beginning, there is no way out of this without massive sacrifices. The issue is WHICH sacrifices, and I have already said multiple times what should HAD BEEN done, and that we lost that moment already.



The globalists, whether they intentionally released this weaponized virus or it was an accidental release, are making their moves, because they can't just let this crisis go to waste.


Their moves are complex, and it goes from vaccines to control, to building a database, to censorship on all media (MSM and social) to destroying small businesses while protecting and enriching the corporations (especially big tech and big pharma).


Lastly, but not the least important, is their move against the U.S. Trump just happened to be the President at this time. The globalists were always had their plans for the U.S.

I have already said why they need the U.S. to fall first, because their plans won't work otherwise.




Before I am going to address the vaccines, I want to point something that only recently have been implemented, and because of that, globalists have a massive advantage in pretty much everything they plan to do (and that includes vaccination) : the censorship on ALL media, through "fact checking", deletion of posts, comments and videos, and, ofc, heavy control on big TV channels.


Now, the vaccines.

My personal opinion on this was and is clear : there is no way in hell that there will be a WORKING vaccine anytime soon. And by anytime soon, I mean at least until 2023.


But, I might be wrong, so, let's see what exactly do they have (or don't have), in probability order, from smallest to highest :

1.They have working vaccines (both efficient and low risk).
2.They have rushed vaccines, that are inefficient, but low risk.
3.They have rushed vaccines, that are inefficient, but high risk.
4.They have a placebo, that they will sell it at vaccine price.


Regardless of what vaccines they have, or don't, one thing is clear : they want to inject us with that.


The most probable scenarios are they they have rushed vaccines, inefficient and high risk...or they have nothing but a placebo.


In both scenarios, the big pharma is going to make money...but only in one of the scenarios, we, the people, are safe : the placebo scenario.


The problem is that we don't know if that is the case, and most likely IT IS NOT the case, simply because a high risk vaccine, with long term negative effects on our health, is much more profitable then a placebo.


A placebo can be sold maybe 2 times a year, while a high risk vaccine, with long term negative effects on health, will ensure, also long term, massive sales of drugs and treatments.



Look, at this point, it really doesn't matter if this weaponized virus was released intentionally or not. The virus is real, it is much more contagious and deadly then any other coronaviruses, there is no way we can have a vaccine anytime soon, and regardless of what we choose to do (full or partial lock-downs), the economy is on life support, and it is about to collapse, no matter what.


The globalists plans WANT IT to collapse. They want the Great Reset.


They will get it, but probably not the way they want it.




I am not an antivaxxer. I do believe in vaccines...the thing is that we have only a HANDFUL of vaccines that work, and NONE of them works against coronaviruses.


I am also not a lock-down supporter. I am against any form of lock-down, partial or total.

I am not a fearmonger, I am just saying things the way I see them coming.



As for mad max like scenario...I have NOT changed my opinion : I still think that SHTF by the end of this year.



This guy started off a year ago sounding normal. After a year on GLP, he’s using words like the great global reset, globalists and weaponized virus. He’s behind a couple days for his weekly update so maybe the vaccine news has changed his gloom forecast.

That’s why I won’t link it.
 

llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
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It would take a lot of things going bad, but I wouldn't put that outside the realm of possibility. There would have to be some companies that were woefully unprepared though...
Following the thread since the beginning has freaked me out on the early accuracy. It’s within the realm for sure. It’s all about the medical systems collapsing and if that happens...
 
May 4, 2011
2,444
1,203
1,743
Charleston, SC
It is clickbait. That’s why I won’t link it. I’ve talked about this website many times here. Thanks to @Deere Poke, godlikeproductions has been a game changer for me. I trade in metals and currencies for excitement and conspiracies are the biggest driver in fluctuations. So that website is number one in congregations of conspiracy theorists from around the world. A couple thousand stories start there everyday but if you have the time, you can sort quickly through them to see which could potentially be real. Thereby giving me, in some cases, huge lead times to move. I’m small time, it’s just me but knowing things like 80-20 rules and human panic and/or gossip really are the main drivers in these markets. Basically I look at major subjects, see which way the group think goes and then I do the opposite. Kind of like walking up to the craps table and betting the “Not Come” line on a Saturday night.

Doing this for a few years now, so I’m getting pretty good at weeding out the BS. Which is 99.9% of it. For instance, GLP is reporting that a Mosad Chief has been assassinated last night. I go to Iran’s news sites and see nothing there. If I had, maybe it’s time to look at some shekels. Or defense stocks.

This website has a user by the name of Deplorable Recollector. It has an easy member search. You can’t miss his thread. It’s almost at 10,000 responses. You can follow it from January to present and see it in real time how he got the lockdowns correct months in advance and from Romania even. Lately, he started going into conspiracy realms pretty hard and that red flags it for me or maybe I’m just in denial that it could go that badly. He’s now talking Armageddon type crap so I’m not listening as hard as I was.


Decided to add his last update here but it’s from 11-26. Enjoy.


Apparently, the restrictions in Europe are working.


I say apparently, because they aren't exactly working as intended, neither they work with same efficiency in all places.


The results of the restrictions, which are relative, at best, are less effective and take longer compared to the lock-downs in the spring.


After a month (or more, in some countries) the number of cases are on a downward path...but hospitalizations and ICU admissions are on a plateau, or, in some countries, on a slight downward slope.


The number of cases in Europe is going down, hospitalizations and ICU admissions, not so much, if at all.
I do not see the current restrictions being efficient after mid-December.



Europe number of cases, hospitalizations and ICU admissions will start to rise again around mid-December. There are already signs that current restrictions "capped" already in their efficiency.

I believe that the current restrictions in Europe aren't able to perform for much longer, and there will be another spike after mid-December.




Europe is not under a lock-down, but the current restrictions are very costly, both economically (tons of businesses closed) and sanitary (hospitalizations and ICU admissions are still too high).


Since the beginning of this thread, I have explained that we only have 3 ways to deal with the pandemic : full lock-downs, no lock-downs, and partial lock-downs.


Full lock-downs , if they last 2 to 3 months, will ensure at least 6 months without restrictions.

Partial lock-downs will have to be cycled every 3 months or so.

No lock-downs at all...well, we didn't tried that yet.



Obviously, as I have been said from the beginning, there is no way out of this without massive sacrifices. The issue is WHICH sacrifices, and I have already said multiple times what should HAD BEEN done, and that we lost that moment already.



The globalists, whether they intentionally released this weaponized virus or it was an accidental release, are making their moves, because they can't just let this crisis go to waste.


Their moves are complex, and it goes from vaccines to control, to building a database, to censorship on all media (MSM and social) to destroying small businesses while protecting and enriching the corporations (especially big tech and big pharma).


Lastly, but not the least important, is their move against the U.S. Trump just happened to be the President at this time. The globalists were always had their plans for the U.S.

I have already said why they need the U.S. to fall first, because their plans won't work otherwise.




Before I am going to address the vaccines, I want to point something that only recently have been implemented, and because of that, globalists have a massive advantage in pretty much everything they plan to do (and that includes vaccination) : the censorship on ALL media, through "fact checking", deletion of posts, comments and videos, and, ofc, heavy control on big TV channels.


Now, the vaccines.

My personal opinion on this was and is clear : there is no way in hell that there will be a WORKING vaccine anytime soon. And by anytime soon, I mean at least until 2023.


But, I might be wrong, so, let's see what exactly do they have (or don't have), in probability order, from smallest to highest :

1.They have working vaccines (both efficient and low risk).
2.They have rushed vaccines, that are inefficient, but low risk.
3.They have rushed vaccines, that are inefficient, but high risk.
4.They have a placebo, that they will sell it at vaccine price.



Regardless of what vaccines they have, or don't, one thing is clear : they want to inject us with that.


The most probable scenarios are they they have rushed vaccines, inefficient and high risk...or they have nothing but a placebo.


In both scenarios, the big pharma is going to make money...but only in one of the scenarios, we, the people, are safe : the placebo scenario.


The problem is that we don't know if that is the case, and most likely IT IS NOT the case, simply because a high risk vaccine, with long term negative effects on our health, is much more profitable then a placebo.


A placebo can be sold maybe 2 times a year, while a high risk vaccine, with long term negative effects on health, will ensure, also long term, massive sales of drugs and treatments.



Look, at this point, it really doesn't matter if this weaponized virus was released intentionally or not. The virus is real, it is much more contagious and deadly then any other coronaviruses, there is no way we can have a vaccine anytime soon, and regardless of what we choose to do (full or partial lock-downs), the economy is on life support, and it is about to collapse, no matter what.


The globalists plans WANT IT to collapse. They want the Great Reset.


They will get it, but probably not the way they want it.




I am not an antivaxxer. I do believe in vaccines...the thing is that we have only a HANDFUL of vaccines that work, and NONE of them works against coronaviruses.


I am also not a lock-down supporter. I am against any form of lock-down, partial or total.

I am not a fearmonger, I am just saying things the way I see them coming.



As for mad max like scenario...I have NOT changed my opinion : I still think that SHTF by the end of this year.


This guy started off a year ago sounding normal. After a year on GLP, he’s using words like the great global reset, globalists and weaponized virus. He’s behind a couple days for his weekly update so maybe the vaccine news has changed his gloom forecast.

That’s why I won’t link it.
So, it's a rando anonymous guy with no links to actual data or real analyses posting on a conspiracy theory board. No evidence, just conjecture that can "feel" right if you already think there's a shadow global government conspiracy in which US scientists are working on a massive scale to commit fraud and undermine their own society. I'm dumber for having read that.

If you have real evidence for who this is and accurate predictions they made in real time, I could be more interested. Until then, this looks like conspiracy theory garbage.
 

llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
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Sammamish, Washington.Dallas, Texas.Maui, Hawaii
So, it's a rando anonymous guy with no links to actual data or real analyses posting on a conspiracy theory board. No evidence, just conjecture that can "feel" right if you already think there's a shadow global government conspiracy in which US scientists are working on a massive scale to commit fraud and undermine their own society. I'm dumber for having read that.

If you have real evidence for who this is and accurate predictions they made in real time, I could be more interested. Until then, this looks like conspiracy theory garbage.
So you didn’t go look? It’s chalk full of every kind of chart, breakdown and stats from every previous pandemic. It includes type of culture, politics, military, religious and regional issue throughout the world. I said it pretty clearly not sure I can make it clearer.
1. Saw a guy a year ago on a conspiracy forum.
2. Guy claimed to be a Chinese doctor claiming some weird virus in wuhan.
3. Godlikeproductions started running thousands of virus stories from citizens in wuhan. (Until the Chinese cut the cable, still haven’t had one poster from wuhan)
4. A statistician from Romania started talking about past pandemics.
5. He with the help of the Chinese bloggers started plotting the virus spread.
6. Even in March, I watched in real time as wuhan flights still landed in NYC. Just as he said they would.
7. I stated earlier today I lost confidence in him because of his craziness. Remember when I said “red flag”? I don’t trust his mind at this point because GLP influenced him and he didn’t resist it.
8. My only point was that the guy I listened to since the beginning, who has been scary accurate, is saying it’s going to be far worse.
9. I tried repeatedly pointing out that this is iffy and to take it as just that. A message on a message board.
10. I brought it up here because crazy enough, I actually enjoy and care for several people here and if there is even a 1% possibility that he’s right again, I don’t want to be blamed like the first time I knew and didn’t say anything.
 

llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
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I decided to copy the first update so you can see how this person has changed over the course of the pandemic. No talk of global resets or any conspiracies. GLP will do that to you if you let it. His forecasts were even correct his first try just didn’t explode as fast as first projected.


01/28/2020 12:45 PM
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CHINESE VIRUS infection rate OUTSIDE China; UPDATE Page 313
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATE :



Important notes :

1.Testing kits are not reliable
2.African countries, India, South and Central America countries, Eastern Europe countries, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, other SE Asian countries, all former Soviet republics, most Middle East either don't have testing kits, laboratories or simply are unable/unwilling to detect/confirm the COVID19 cases.
About 70% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 4.4 billion people, labeled as Category B countries.
3.Western Europe, Japan, the U.S., South Korea, Australia, New Zeeland, Singapore are most likely not confirming COVID19 cases to postpone the panic and prop the markets.
About 30% of the population outside China belong to the above countries - cca. 1.9 billion people, labeled as Category A countries.
4.Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are considered as a part of the countries and cities outside China.
5.Confirmed cases are still announced the day after the testing is done (24hr lag).

The model is based on a number of 2,000-2,500 infected people outside China, on January 28th, with an infection rate that is doubling every 2.5 days.

Los Alamos Labs study, peer reviewed, acknowledges an infection rate doubling every 2.4 days..

[link to arxiv.org (secure)]

The novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread
widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2
to 2.7. (from the study).

The previous model was based on an R0 of 2.4-2.6, with a 70-80% contagion chance, which resulted in an infection rate that was doubling every 22 hrs.. I was using the data that was known at that point.

World population outside China, with their respective share of infected cases (higher for India and Africa) :
India : 1,400,000,000 - (22,29%) - infected share: 27%
Africa : 1,216,000,000 - (19.35%) - infected share: 23%
North America : 368,000,000 - 5,85% : infected share: 5%
Central America + South America : 608,000,000 - 9.68% - infected share: 9%
Europe : 747,000,000 - 11.90% - infected share: 9%
Asia (minus China and India) : 1,900,000 - 30.25% - infected share: 27%

January(infected people):
28th : 2,000-2,500
29th : 3,200-4,000
30th : 4,400-5,500
31st : 5,600-7,000

February(infected people):
1st : 6,800-8,500
2nd : 8,000-10,000
3rd : 12,800-16,000

4th : 17,600-22,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,000-1,250
Serious/critical cases (18%): 202.

5th : 22,400-28,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,600-2,000

6th : 27,200-34,000 (275 confirmed, 20 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,200-2,750

7th : 32,000-40,000 (327 confirmed, 61 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,800-3,500
Serious/critical cases (18%): 567.

8th : 51,200-64,000 (354 confirmed, 64 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 3,400-4,250

9th : 70,400-88,000 (379 confirmed, 70 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 4,000-5,000

10th : 89,600-112,000 (461 confirmed, 135 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 6,400-8,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 1,296.

11th : 108,800-136,000 (517 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 8,800-11,000 (+3,485 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 13,355 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,403.

12th : 128,000-160,000 (523 confirmed, 174 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 11,200-14,000

13th : 204,800-256,000 (586 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 13,600-17,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 2,754.

14th : 281,600-352,000 (608 confirmed, 218 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 16,000-20,000

15th : 358,400-448,000 (697 confirmed, 285 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 26,100-32,000

16th : 435,200-544,000 (781 confirmed, 355 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 35,200-44,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 7,128.

17th : 512,000-640,000(896 confirmed, 454 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 44,800-56,000

18th : 819,000-1,024,000(999 confirmed, 542 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 54,400-68,000 (+20,048 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 81,248 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 14,624.

19th : 1,126,000-1,408,000(1,116 confirmed, 621 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 64,000-80,000

20th : 1,433,000-1,792,000(1,198 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 102,400-128,000

21st : 1,740,000-2,176,000(1,379 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 140,800-176,000
N.America share (5%) : 87,000-108,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 7,040-8,800
Europe share (9%) : 156,000-195,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,672-15,840

22nd : 2,048,000-2,560,000(1,695 confirmed, 634 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 179,200-224,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 36,288.
N.America share (5%) : 102,400-128,000 infected
Presenting symptoms :8,960-11,200
Europe share (9%) : 184,000-230,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 16,120-oioooooo

23rd : 3,277,000-4,096,000(2,052 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 217,600-272,000
N.America share (5%) : 163,850-204,800 infected
Presenting symptoms : 10,880-13,600
Europe share (9%) : 294,930-368,640 infected
Presenting symptoms : 19,500-24,500

24th : 4,506,000-5,632,000(2,429 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 256,000-320,000 (+128,953 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 421,453 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 75,861.
N.America share (5%) : 225,300-281,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 12,800-16,000
Europe share (9%) : 405,000-506,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 23,000-28,800

25th : 5,735,000-7,168,000(2,754 confirmed, 691 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 409,500-512,000


26th : 6,964,000-8,704,000(3,316 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 563,000-704,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 114,030



27th : 8,192,000-10,240,000(4,270 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 716,500-896,000
N.America share (5%) : 409,600-512,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 35,800-44,800
Europe share (9%) : 737,000-921,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 64,500-80,600

28th : 13,107,000-16,384,000(5,315 confirmed, 705 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 870,000-1,088,000


29th : 18,022,000-22,528,000
Presenting symptoms :1,024,000-1,280,000
Serious/critical cases (18%): 207,360.


March(infected people):
1st : 22,937,000-28,672,000
Presenting symptoms : 1,638,500-2,048,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,146,800-1,433,600 infected
Presenting symptoms : 81,925-102,000
Europe share (9%) : 2,064,000-2,580,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 147,400-184,300

2nd : 27,852,000-34,816,000(10,293 confirmed, 706 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,253,000-2,816,000 (+610,807 added from the staggered numbers from previous 7 days), for a median number of 3,145,307 for this day.
Serious/critical cases (18%): 566,165.


3rd : 32,768,000-40,960,000(12,632 confirmed, 706 on Diamond Princess)
Presenting symptoms : 2,867,500-3,584,000
N.America share (5%) : 1,638,400-2,048,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 143,300-179,000
Europe share (9%) : 2,949,000-3,686,000 infected
Presenting symptoms : 258,000-322,000

March 8th : 131 mil. to 200 mil. infected.
Presenting symptoms : 11.4 mil to 14.3 mil.
N.America share (5%) : 6.5 mil to 10 mil. infected
Presenting symptoms in N.A : 573k to 716k
Serious cases in N.America : 103k to 128k
Europe share (9%) : 11.7 mil to 18 mil.
Presenting symptoms in Europe : 1 mil. to 1.3 mil.
Serious cases in Europe : 180k to 234k




In the last days, most officially confirmed cases were detected roughly 7 days after symptoms appeared. There were some exceptions, with 15-21 days incubation period, but most were in the 7 day range.

However, a significant number of infected people will be asymptomatic for 12-14 or more days, which is roughly 40-50% of the infected people, at a given date. I will round it up to 50%.

The remaining 50% will be staggered for an additional 7 days, but in order to avoid adding a ton of numbers for every day, I will add them up every 7 days.

Applying this to my model, the number of symptomatic people on February 5th is about half the number of infected people on January 28th.

I will add the serious and critical cases (18% of the total) every 3-4 days and the days with the added staggered cases.

The current model points to an overload of the healthcare systems in Europe and the U.S. to start around mid-March, with Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan to start feeling the pressure at the end of February.

The former model was pointing that the healthcare systems would start feeling the pressure around mid-February for Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, with Europe and U.S. by early March.

The former model was off by about 2 weeks.

The new model will have its critical period between March 2nd-March 8th.
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Jul 5, 2020
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So if your "peer group" delays, you're going to delay more, even if millions of people take it, including thousands that are your same age. It's hard not to see that as just fear and a desire to make others you know well go first because you're scared. Beyond that, it's hard to see what the rationale is.
It’s a new virus. It’s a new vaccine. It’s was fast-tracked to implementation. Forgive me if I want to be just a little more cautious than usual before I let some inject something in my body.
 

steross

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It’s a new virus. It’s a new vaccine. It’s was fast-tracked to implementation. Forgive me if I want to be just a little more cautious than usual before I let some inject something in my body.
I actually think that's fair. The issue is that what you're saying prioritizes "what my buddy who got it said" over the millions who will have gotten the vaccine before you, including people in UK who will start getting it on Tuesday and over high quality randomized trials. It's anecdotes over science.
 
Jul 5, 2020
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I actually think that's fair. The issue is that what you're saying prioritizes "what my buddy who got it said" over the millions who will have gotten the vaccine before you, including people in UK who will start getting it on Tuesday and over high quality randomized trials. It's anecdotes over science.
Even if I wanted to it still doesn’t appear likely it would be available to the general public until early next year