Covid-19

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RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
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Not to derail the thread, but we do make interpretations based on how wide the CI is since it's an indicator of how certain we are about a particular parameter estimate. In this case though, it is what it is and both are informative. As I took it, the CI indicates the r0 very well could still be down around 4, but is almost certainly higher than original estimates from China (although I'd note, these data are also based on Wuhan and I'm not super confident in their reporting). The lower bound is close to prior estimates, but the upper bound is astronomically higher.
The 95% is the indicator of how certain we are of the estimate. The 95%CI is saying "We are 95% certain the true parameter falls in this range". No matter how far apart numerically the upper and lower limits are, it still represents a 95% certainty. Explain how we interpret the width of the 95%CI.

Yes, it's pretty shocking that the lower limit doesn't fall in the 2-3.5 that we were being told.
 

Binman4OSU

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India starting to seal off entire areas in cities with Fences and promises to deliver essential services door to door in the sealed areas
It took India 9 weeks to go from 1 to 2500 cases. In the last 6 days they have gone from 2500 to 5000+

https://twitter.com/indiacom/status/1247953733872312321
 

jetman

Federal Marshal
Nov 27, 2004
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The state of NY has now confirmed more positive cases in the state than any other country as a whole in the world.

149,316 positive cases
45% female and 55% male

With 40% of people who have been given a test, testing positive
So what was with that stupid a$$ map of the southern states again and how people who traveled more than 2 miles were spreading this most? The one that was posted all over twitter and facebook last week? I wonder who was behind that push to make the southern states look like the culprit. That was a weird deal.
 
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The 95% is the indicator of how certain we are of the estimate. The 95%CI is saying "We are 95% certain the true parameter falls in this range". No matter how far apart numerically the upper and lower limits are, it still represents a 95% certainty. Explain how we interpret the width of the 95%CI.

Yes, it's pretty shocking that the lower limit doesn't fall in the 2-3.5 that we were being told.
I know what a 95% CI is. If the 95% CI for the r0 ranged from 1 to 100, that tells you that your estimate likely sucks because your confidence band is so large or "wide". You'd conclude the opposite if the CI ranged from 5.6 to 5.8. You feel a lot more confident in your estimate of 5.7.

In my world, we have to submit CIs for all kinds of things but aORs and RRs are probably the most common in my work. If I submit an article where my main predictor has an aOR CI ranging from 1.5 to 20.0, there's a good chance I'm getting rejected precisely because it tells you my aOR estimate is unstable. No, there's no absolute indicator of "width" and I never said there was. We still do look at the spread of a CI and make meaningful inferences.
 

Binman4OSU

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The City of Chicago has taken the proactive steps to transform a warehouse into a temp cold storage area for up to 1500 bodies. City officials say they hope they never have to use the facility but wanted to be prepared in light of what is happening in NY and NJ and the situation they are now facing in using refrigerated trucks to store bodies
 

Rack

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Why does government action always seem to lag the actual problem...in this case I think the government actions seem to lag the problems by about a month or so.
 

Jostate

CPTNQUIRK called me a greenhorn
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can you expand so I can check the data ? I mean they obviously do not have more than the total US.

But the next closest country by reported cases is Spain with 146K reported
You aren't still taking China and India's numbers seriously are you? I can't believe people on here seem to believe India's 188 number or something. They lose more than that to people slipping on a banana peel in a week.
 

Rack

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Because people are resistant to government action.
That's both a big blessing and a curse...It however is likely to continue in a free society so it is what we will have to deal with. This was mainly my response to Utah closing their boarders that Binman posted. Not since the 1800's has the state of Utah (actually the Latter-day Saints) done this...(see mountain meadow 1857)
 

Rack

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DOW closes up 779 points...I think mostly on the socialist leaving the white house race, but it may also be on confidence that we will return to work sooner than thought a week or so back.
 

Jostate

CPTNQUIRK called me a greenhorn
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DOW closes up 779 points...I think mostly on the socialist leaving the white house race, but it may also be on confidence that we will return to work sooner than thought a week or so back.
Most people would be a little insulted that dropping out of the race could make the market go up 779 points. Bernie will wear it as a badge of honor.