Consolidated Basketball Recruiting 2021

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#61
Did I confirm what you’re saying? AA basically tripled his scoring output. But so did McGriff and Carroll. Are McGriff and Carroll also in that 95%?

Kai Jones at Texas also tripled his scoring output year one to year two.
Santos Silva at Tech tripled his scoring average year one to year two.
Davion Mitchell at Baylor tripled his scoring average year one to year two.
Taz Sherman at WVU was very close to doing the same.

And that’s doing minimal research just in conference, I stopped after looking at those teams. I don’t think it’s as uncommon as you think for sophomores to improve dramatically from year 1 to year 2.

AA 4.2 to 12.2 190% increase

Kai Jones 3.6 to 8.8 144% increase
Silva went from 3.1 to 10pts 223% increase in the A-10 not the BIG12 with low 3.1 as a Fresh.
Mitchell transferred from Auburn and sat out a year. 2018 3.7, 2020 9.9pts 167% increase Fresh-Jr
Taz 5.3 tp 13.4 153% increase at a 41.3% FG rate... no thanks.

So from that list only a player with 3.1pts in the A10 increased his scoring more than AA.
Now we just need to find that player that averaged 0.5 pts and jumped to 2pts. 300% increase.

I still take AA over all of those.
 
#62
I think you both are shades of correct. Before reading either post, I would have agreed that a large majority don't triple their scoring output, but I would have believed that most freshman to sophomore changes are positive.

None of the OSU players you listed originally had triple out-put and it sounds like one player from each of the teams you list above had similar improvement to AA. Specifically, McGriff 2.2 jump and Carroll 2.1 jump, both of whom played substantially more minutes 15.7 to 24.1 for McGriff and 11.4 to 24.8 for Carroll. Of course their scoring output will go up with 10 more minutes per game. At least it better. I don't have the time to do the research at the moment, but I would postulate that it is safe to say that freshman to sophomores across the country improve a great deal between their freshman and sophomore years.

So maybe the 95% tripling their output @SlurrrPup postulated is high, but its likely not too far off. Maybe it's more like 80%, which is still quite the minority as compared to all the teams and players out there.
95% may be a little high, but I think it is pretty close. Maybe 90%.

If there were no JUCO's and everyone came in as a Freshman. 95% would be around 1 player every 6 years. 80% would be about 2 players every 3 years and I don't think that happens 2 times for every 10 recruits.

Too many scenarios and not worth the time to calculate.

Any way, it is just my opinion and it helps pass the time while we wait for the NCAA.
 
Jun 20, 2013
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#63
I know Ice was bad at the end of last season, but I am giving him the benefit of the doubt that he can return to form. With him on the floor a lot though, we need shooting out there as well. AA really improved that little pull up. If he can develop a knockdown, catch and shoot 3, look out because he will be that much more effective off the ball as well.

4 Guards we know we can count on...
AA
Ice (assuming he can stay healthy)
Walker
Bryce (if he plays)

Unknowns:
D. Williams and C. Harris

Keylan and Newton can help on the wing some.

This why I think we need an impact guard from the portal because Bryce might not be here and Ice has been hurt/sick for extended periods the last two seasons.
I agree with you. hopefully we don't have to play Keylan at the 4 with the sheer number of PF's on the roster, but it is nice having him and newton that play the 3 and can help with weak side defense and still be a big enough body.

I assume a huge part of Ice's lack of production was the hand injury, but the fact that his highest FT% is 66% makes me believe he is well below average as a shooter. The loyalty Boynton showed through his dry spell was commendable, I just wonder with the new talent coming in if he'll be more willing to reduce minutes if the production isn't there. I'm just armchair quarterbacking though, Ice clearly has carried this team before, and contributed to the national team.
 
Sep 23, 2010
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#64
I agree with you. hopefully we don't have to play Keylan at the 4 with the sheer number of PF's on the roster, but it is nice having him and newton that play the 3 and can help with weak side defense and still be a big enough body.

I assume a huge part of Ice's lack of production was the hand injury, but the fact that his highest FT% is 66% makes me believe he is well below average as a shooter. The loyalty Boynton showed through his dry spell was commendable, I just wonder with the new talent coming in if he'll be more willing to reduce minutes if the production isn't there. I'm just armchair quarterbacking though, Ice clearly has carried this team before, and contributed to the national team.
I'm not sure Boynton's loyalty was commendable. It really hurt us in the Oregon State game. Maybe we make the same deep run. But that's one of those tough coaching decisions.

I think Ice will be fine if he stays healthy. He will be back with ball going downhill in transition more often. He will be on the ball more, and his lack of shooting ability really hurts us when he's playing off the ball.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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#65
I'm not sure Boynton's loyalty was commendable. It really hurt us in the Oregon State game. Maybe we make the same deep run. But that's one of those tough coaching decisions.

I think Ice will be fine if he stays healthy. He will be back with ball going downhill in transition more often. He will be on the ball more, and his lack of shooting ability really hurts us when he's playing off the ball.
Agreed. It just never seemed like Ice understood his role with Cade on the floor. I think we'll see a much more assertive player next year.
 
Aug 19, 2006
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#66
Agreed. It just never seemed like Ice understood his role with Cade on the floor. I think we'll see a much more assertive player next year.
Marcus Smart wasn't a great shooter either but he found ways to manufacture points. Ice can be that same kind of player. He needs to spend the offseason just working on his jump shot and free throws. He doesn't have to be our go-to scorer but improvement in those areas would make a huge difference.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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#67
Marcus Smart wasn't a great shooter either but he found ways to manufacture points. Ice can be that same kind of player. He needs to spend the offseason just working on his jump shot and free throws. He doesn't have to be our go-to scorer but improvement in those areas would make a huge difference.
Yea, Smart is a pretty good comparison. But I'd rather Ice not try to be something he's not and would rather he just go play his game.
 
Aug 19, 2006
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#68
Yea, Smart is a pretty good comparison. But I'd rather Ice not try to be something he's not and would rather he just go play his game.
Agreed. It's not necessarily fair to expect Ice to be the second coming of Marcus. They're different players with different skillsets.

It also helped that Smart had Forte to bomb away from the outside and open up the floor. As far as we know, this team doesn't have that guy yet. Maybe someone will grow into that role.

If Ice could improve his outside shooting just enough that he doesn't have to get all his points by crashing the lane, it would change how opposing teams have to defend him and open up some space in the middle.
 
Sep 23, 2010
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#69
I don't want to come down on Ice because pre-mono, his sophomore year, he was really good. I think he can get back to that. I would like to see an improved catch and shoot and FTs as well. He just wasn't right after the foot injury last year. And he was a bad fit with Cade and AA.

Saying that, I don't like the Marcus Smart comparison. Smart is an NBA vet now and much better player. Ice is a nice college player.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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#70
I don't want to come down on Ice because pre-mono, his sophomore year, he was really good. I think he can get back to that. I would like to see an improved catch and shoot and FTs as well. He just wasn't right after the foot injury last year. And he was a bad fit with Cade and AA.

Saying that, I don't like the Marcus Smart comparison. Smart is an NBA vet now and much better player. Ice is a nice college player.
I don't want to speak for @ouscowboy80, but I don't think either of us are trying to compare them on the level of their games, but rather the particular skill sets. Both are big, physical guards with above average ball handling skills but below average shooting. Marcus was/is a bit more confident and assertive, I'd say to a fault sometimes, but it is his strength. He was also a little better shooter than Ice, but their skills are pretty similar otherwise.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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#78
Looks like we made his final four. This would be a huge get for us!
https://twitter.com/sahvir_/status/1390694698696814592?s=20
So what's the big deal with this guy?? Short, poor shooting guard. Is that what this team needs?? If AA comes back, with Ice, we've got ball handlers. We need a shooter, and this guy's numbers don't seem to indicate he is one.
 
Oct 30, 2007
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#80
So what's the big deal with this guy?? Short, poor shooting guard. Is that what this team needs?? If AA comes back, with Ice, we've got ball handlers. We need a shooter, and this guy's numbers don't seem to indicate he is one.
For comparison:
Avery Anderson as a sophomore: 12.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.5 SPG
Sahvir Wheeler as a sophomore: 14.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 7.4 APG, 1.7 SPG

In all fairness, AA probably would've had better numbers without Cunningham, but Wheeler looks like he can play. He would be a quality addition to our roster. Hopefully we can add another shooter as well.
 
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