CFB Playoff #5 CFP, #5 Coaches, #5 AP

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Nov 27, 2007
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Tulsa
#23
If that’s the case, then Mich hurt us. Thus, a wash.


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It is a wash in terms of making the CFP. In fact I think a loss to tOSU may have dropped UM to BU or it would be close anyways. tOSU will still likely be ranked above Baylor. We may be in a game of inches. So it may have hurt a bit, probably won’t matter.

However, of the all remaining teams I think tOSU presents the worst match-up problems for the Pokes.
 

PokeIncognito

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Aug 1, 2013
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#27
Here’s how things stand now.

E44EA20C-235B-4B9D-84F3-44477E52F036.jpeg

Last night’s win + everything else that went down gives us a 60% chance of making the CFP.

That jumps to 97% with a win over Baylor, with no other assumptions.

DED202C0-0FD6-4FDE-B922-A94E7F5D9D13.jpeg


UM could very well lose to Iowa. That would open the door wide open for spot #4. That isn’t really our problem, however.

Assuming UM and Cincy win out…
If Alabama wins:
1EB29E08-C7CB-4538-AE58-F996A1ADDCD7.jpeg

If Georgia wins:

46FF42BE-3000-45D5-B6CC-F507EAAD9D17.jpeg


I’ve said it for like a month now but simply win and you’re in. 12-1 OSU is in, always has been.
 
Nov 27, 2011
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#31
If we beat Baylor, any single one of these 3 things gets us in the playoff:

1. Georgia beats Bama
2. Iowa beats Michigan
3. Cincy loses to Houston

While it’s absolutely ridiculous that we need help, the committee definitely will screw us over if none of those 3 things happen. It’s ridiculous that Bama is even going to be in front of us this week, giving that their resume is absolutely pathetic. And similarly, if Georgia lost to a mediocre Bama team, they would have zero business in the playoff over a conference champion but would still probably get in over us.

EDIT: very hungover this morning and didn’t realize someone had already spelled out all the scenarios
 

PokeIncognito

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Aug 1, 2013
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#32
If we beat Baylor, any single one of these 3 things gets us in the playoff:

1. Georgia beats Bama
2. Iowa beats Michigan
3. Cincy loses to Houston

While it’s absolutely ridiculous that we need help, the committee definitely will screw us over if none of those 3 things happen. It’s ridiculous that Bama is even going to be in front of us this week, giving that their resume is absolutely pathetic. And similarly, if Georgia lost to a mediocre Bama team, they would have zero business in the playoff over a conference champion but would still probably get in over us.
Totally disagree. None of those need to happen.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
#34
If we beat Baylor, any single one of these 3 things gets us in the playoff:

1. Georgia beats Bama
2. Iowa beats Michigan
3. Cincy loses to Houston

While it’s absolutely ridiculous that we need help, the committee definitely will screw us over if none of those 3 things happen. It’s ridiculous that Bama is even going to be in front of us this week, giving that their resume is absolutely pathetic. And similarly, if Georgia lost to a mediocre Bama team, they would have zero business in the playoff over a conference champion but would still probably get in over us.
Totally disagree. None of those need to happen.
Agree. They are not leaving out a 12-1 P5 conference champ when at least 2 P5 conferences will have no better than a 2-loss champ. And the only way an undefeated G5 team gets in is if there are no 1-loss P5 champs available to fill out the 4-team field.


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PokeIncognito

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Aug 1, 2013
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#35
Agree. They are not leaving out a 12-1 P5 conference champ when at least 2 P5 conferences will have no better than a 2-loss champ. And the only way an undefeated G5 team gets in is if there are no 1-loss P5 champs available to fill out the 4-team field.


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Translation:

If Alabama beats Georgia, the discussion isn’t “Ok State vs Georgia,” it’s Cincy vs Georgia. 538’s projections illustrate that precisely.
 
Jan 2, 2005
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#38
Totally disagree. None of those need to happen.
If none of those things happen this is what it will look like:

1. Tide
2. Bulldogs
3. Wolverines
4. Bearcats, Golden Domers, or The Pokes

If Bama somehow wins, there is no way they leave Georgia out of the playoff unless they lose by three or more touchdowns. Given past history and this committee's incoherent justification for their top 10 rankings, this puts us in a precarious situation. The committee appears to dislike the Big 12 , they love name brands and might very will feel they need to finally put a Group of Five team in the playoff. Given the love affair the media et all have, a 13-0 Cincinnati would fit that bill. I see us being on the outside looking in.

Personally I see Bama and Cincinnati losing leaving a playoff group of the Bulldogs, Wolverines , Pokes and Golden Domers, in that order.
 

PokeIncognito

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Aug 1, 2013
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#39
If none of those things happen this is what it will look like:

1. Tide
2. Bulldogs
3. Wolverines
4. Bearcats, Golden Domers, or The Pokes

If Bama somehow wins, there is no way they leave Georgia out of the playoff unless they lose by three or more touchdowns. Given past history and this committee's incoherent justification for their top 10 rankings, this puts us in a precarious situation. The committee appears to dislike the Big 12 , they love name brands and might very will feel they need to finally put a Group of Five team in the playoff. Given the love affair the media et all have, a 13-0 Cincinnati would fit that bill. I see us being on the outside looking in.

Personally I see Bama and Cincinnati losing leaving a playoff group of the Bulldogs, Wolverines , Pokes and Golden Domers, in that order.
The chance that Alabama, Michigan, and Cincy go a collective 3-0 is probably ~12-18%.

I assert that OSU is in regardless. But, it’s almost a moot point because you’re more likely to see 2 of those teams lose than all three win.
 
Sep 12, 2013
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#40
I haven't seen much of Alabama this year, but the only reason they are top 4 at this point is one reason and one reason only, Saban. They are not a top 4 team. They should be about 6th.

I think it's going to end up being:

Georgia
Michigan
Okla State
Cincinnati

I would love to see a future Big XII preview with OSU vs Cincinnati. In the championship game, of course.