CFB Playoff #5 CFP, #5 Coaches, #5 AP

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Nov 6, 2010
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There are not enough weekends available to give Cinderella teams a chance, but that's a subject for another day. Right now we have a 4-team playoff.
Well, if you want to get rid of bad football games, one non-conference game would need to go away for sure. And I'm just fine with 8, which I think would give everyone at least a hope to get a seat, although it would be still unfair on some level. I'm not talking about a 64 team field like the bball tourny, just more opportunities.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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...The point everyone is trying to make is you don't KNOW what TCU would have done if selected 4th. They might have won too AND IF they had you would be here saying "TCU is the best, clearly the committee got it right".

I think you realize this but refuse to acknowledge it, which makes arguing with you so pointless, so I'll just stop here.
You are correct. I also don't know how Roast Beef A&M would have fared against Bama.
 
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Cimarron

It's not dying I'm talking about, it's living.
Jun 28, 2007
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For 2021, who would want a playoff with

11-2 Wake or 11-2 Pitt?
12-1 UTSA or 9-4 WKU?
8-5 Kent or 9-4 NIU?
10-3 USU or 12-1 SDSU?
11-2 Ore or 10-3 Utah?
11-2 App ST or 12-1 UL?

No Thanks. Not interested in bad football games.
You do realize we get those sorts of games anyway, right? We call them bowl games.
 

Cimarron

It's not dying I'm talking about, it's living.
Jun 28, 2007
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...The point everyone is trying to make is you don't KNOW what TCU would have done if selected 4th. They might have won too AND IF they had you would be here saying "TCU is the best, clearly the committee got it right".

I think you realize this but refuse to acknowledge it, which makes arguing with you so pointless, so I'll just stop here.
TCU got hosed that year.

Ohio State was 3-1 against ranked teams that season. They got beat by VA Tech at home by 13 points. VA Tech ended the season un-ranked. They didn't even get top 25 votes and didn't show up as an also ran.

TCU was 4-1 against ranked teams that year. They got beat on the road by Baylor by 3 points. Baylor ended the season ranked #7.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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...The point everyone is trying to make is you don't KNOW what TCU would have done if selected 4th. They might have won too AND IF they had you would be here saying "TCU is the best, clearly the committee got it right".

I think you realize this but refuse to acknowledge it, which makes arguing with you so pointless, so I'll just stop here.
And I’ll say it again, i don’t know how Roast Beef A&M would have done either. So why not include them?


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CampusCowboy

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Oct 4, 2006
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I will also add that I hate the “best” vs “most deserving” argument used for the CFP. The pundits often say a team is best based on hype and recruiting, and ignore the actual game.
This. I have no clue why it isn’t most deserving. That is who it should be. It’s not who you think is best, it’s who has earned it that year.

Unfortunate that it doesn’t work that way.


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Sep 29, 2011
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I will also add that I hate the “best” vs “most deserving” argument used for the CFP. The pundits often say a team is best based on hype and recruiting, and ignore the actual game.
This. I have no clue why it isn’t most deserving. That is who it should be. It’s not who you think is best, it’s who has earned it that year.

Unfortunate that it doesn’t work that way.


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Please define “most deserving”.


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CampusCowboy

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I will also add that I hate the “best” vs “most deserving” argument used for the CFP. The pundits often say a team is best based on hype and recruiting, and ignore the actual game.
This. I have no clue why it isn’t most deserving. That is who it should be. It’s not who you think is best, it’s who has earned it that year.

Unfortunate that it doesn’t work that way.


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Please define “most deserving”.


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Teams that have the most good wins, no bad losses, and wins their conference.

Georgia loses this week, they are out. If you aren’t your conference champion then how can you be a national champion? Conference championship games should be the first round of the playoffs for power 5 schools.

Notre Dame never gets in unless they go undefeated or join a conference.

Just how I think it should work, they’ll never go for it though.


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Sep 29, 2011
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I will also add that I hate the “best” vs “most deserving” argument used for the CFP. The pundits often say a team is best based on hype and recruiting, and ignore the actual game.
This. I have no clue why it isn’t most deserving. That is who it should be. It’s not who you think is best, it’s who has earned it that year.

Unfortunate that it doesn’t work that way.


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Please define “most deserving”.


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Teams that have the most good wins, no bad losses, and wins their conference.

Georgia loses this week, they are out. If you aren’t your conference champion then how can you be a national champion? Conference championship games should be the first round of the playoffs for power 5 schools.

Notre Dame never gets in unless they go undefeated or join a conference.

Just how I think it should work, they’ll never go for it though.


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Isn’t that essentially what we have now?


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llcoolw

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Feb 7, 2005
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I said "I'd rather watch..."

Not that I get to watch. But yeah, I have routinely stayed up late to catch a Fresno State vs Arizona State game. Or a Oregon vs Oregon State game.

And yes, I'd rather watch a Boise State game than a Alabama game. I'd rather watch an Iowa State game than a Michigan game. I'd rather watch BYU then Notre Dame. While I seriously LOATHE everything that is oU, Alabama and Notre Dame, I also have a pretty equal distaste for all the rest of the Blue Bloods.

Hell, give me the chance to watch a 1A Oklahoma HS football game OR a Bama vs LSU game and I will pick the high school game 100 times out of 100.

*I also haven't watched an NFL game since like 1996. Zero interest.
You’re talking like a gambler. You know you’re an addict when you’re watching Hawaii.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Heretofore I’ve been focusing mostly on what OSU needs to do to get in and less about what the general criteria seems to be to get in. Based on the history of the CFP final rankings combined with the Committees published criteria, below is what I believe to be the functional ranking hierarchy in terms of accomplishment realizing anything below #3 is more speculation than certainty.

1. Undefeated P5 Conference Champions
2. Undefeated P5 Independents
3. 1-loss P5 Conference Champions
4. Undefeated G5 Teams
5. 1-loss P5 Conference Runner-ups
6. 1-loss P5 teams w/o Conference Championship Appearance, and 1-loss Independents
7. 2-loss P5 Conference Runner-ups

To the extent there are 2 or more teams with the same accomplishments, comparative resumes and metrics are used to rank the teams there in.

Assuming this is correct, where does that leave us?

- An OSU win will result in no worse than a 3-seed.
- UGA may not get in with a loss
- Cincy is not guaranteed in with a win
- Notre Dame needs lots of help
- Bama and Mich are almost certainly out with a loss


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jnewtont

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Oct 18, 2010
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Heretofore I’ve been focusing mostly on what OSU needs to do to get in and less about what the general criteria seems to be to get in. Based on the history of the CFP final rankings combined with the Committees published criteria, below is what I believe to be the functional ranking hierarchy in terms of accomplishment realizing anything below #3 is more speculation than certainty.

1. Undefeated P5 Conference Champions
2. Undefeated P5 Independents
3. 1-loss P5 Conference Champions
4. Undefeated G5 Teams
5. 1-loss P5 Conference Runner-ups
6. 1-loss P5 teams w/o Conference Championship Appearance, and 1-loss Independents
7. 2-loss P5 Conference Runner-ups

To the extent there are 2 or more teams with the same accomplishments, comparative resumes and metrics are used to rank the teams there in.

Assuming this is correct, where does that leave us?

- An OSU win will result in no worse than a 3-seed.
- UGA may not get in with a loss
- Cincy is not guaranteed in with a win
- Notre Dame needs lots of help
- Bama and Mich are almost certainly out with a loss


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The item listed 2nd in your "where does that leave us" list is incorrect. UGA is in. Period. You know that. You feel it in your bones. You hear that on TV. Why write something so counterintuitive?
 
Nov 27, 2007
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The argument could, and if necessary, will be made that our last game, against a top 10 ranked Baylor, is more impressive than their win against Houston. +CFP eyetest points.

Would that be enough to jump Cinci? I'd rather we don't have to find out. But a pretty solid argument could be made for OSU, should it become necessary.

Houston is no joke, by the way. Apparently their one loss came when their QB threw 4 INT's in the second half against Texas Tech, in the first game of the year.
It’s weird - I kinda want Cincy in, because eff the establishment. I just don’t want Cincy in at the expense of the Pokes. Also, it would be dope if there are 2 future B12 teams in the CFP.

I have thought for a while now that Houston could be trouble for Cincy. I honestly think that this is the best team they will have played all year, that includes ND. ND was not playing good football at that time. A loss and it would be over, a super tight victory could be just enough to push them out. They will have enormous pressure while Houston would be playing free.
 
Jun 11, 2010
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I went back and looked at history and what I don't think we have yet is an analysis on whether a 1 Loss P5 Conference Champion has preference when you both the SEC Champion and SEC runner up have 1 loss each While it is just a personal belief, I have to think if that 1 loss P5 Champion that was going to get left out was say an Ohio State, then they don't get left out. If that 1 loss P5 Champion is say an Oklahoma State, I am not so sure.

I firmly believe that Georgia is in, win or lose. I disagree with it, but see it as a definite. I am fearful that we are about to get the committees opinion that the Big 12 with a down OU and down Texas is nothing more than a G5 conference.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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I'd be in favor of something similar to what Joel Klatt proposed a few weeks back.

Lessen the influence of the committee - either add in a computer poll, AP, etc
12 team playoff, byes for the top 4
P5 Conference Champions, best G5 and then the wildcards (I'd propose a max of 2 teams per conference)
First round played on campus, home team determined by seeding
National Championship game played on a neutral site
Rotate the TV affiliation to make sure it remains relevant on all networks
 
Jul 9, 2011
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I went back and looked at history and what I don't think we have yet is an analysis on whether a 1 Loss P5 Conference Champion has preference when you both the SEC Champion and SEC runner up have 1 loss each While it is just a personal belief, I have to think if that 1 loss P5 Champion that was going to get left out was say an Ohio State, then they don't get left out. If that 1 loss P5 Champion is say an Oklahoma State, I am not so sure.

I firmly believe that Georgia is in, win or lose. I disagree with it, but see it as a definite. I am fearful that we are about to get the committees opinion that the Big 12 with a down OU and down Texas is nothing more than a G5 conference.
I think I read an interview where the committee head implied effectively a one-loss Georgia is in. That's why it's so important that Georgia win handily over Bama to get them out. Let's say Geogia gets up on Bama; do they call off the dogs to give Bama a chance to stay in the CFP? Big money and conference prestige at stake.
 
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jnewtont

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Oct 18, 2010
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I think I read an interview with the committee head said effectively said a one-loss Georgia is in. That's why it's so important that Georgia win handily over Bama to get them out. Let's say Geogia gets up on Bama; do they call off the dogs to give Bama a chance to stay in the CFP? Big money and conference prestige at stake.
Exterminate Bama, beat Baylor and the rest takes care of itself.
 

CampusCowboy

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Oct 4, 2006
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I will also add that I hate the “best” vs “most deserving” argument used for the CFP. The pundits often say a team is best based on hype and recruiting, and ignore the actual game.
This. I have no clue why it isn’t most deserving. That is who it should be. It’s not who you think is best, it’s who has earned it that year.

Unfortunate that it doesn’t work that way.


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Please define “most deserving”.


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Teams that have the most good wins, no bad losses, and wins their conference.

Georgia loses this week, they are out. If you aren’t your conference champion then how can you be a national champion? Conference championship games should be the first round of the playoffs for power 5 schools.

Notre Dame never gets in unless they go undefeated or join a conference.

Just how I think it should work, they’ll never go for it though.


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Isn’t that essentially what we have now?


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No, no it’s not.

1-loss Ohio State was selected in 2016-17 and didn’t win the Big 10. Penn State and OU both had 2 losses but won their conference and were left out.

1-loss Bama was selected in 2017-28 and didn’t win the SEC. Ohio State and USC both had 2 losses but won their conference and were left out.

1-loss Notre Dame was selected last year. OU and Oregon both had 2 losses but won their conference and were left out. Cincinnati was undefeated and won their conference and were left out. I have no problem with undefeated ND getting in but they should be out with even 1 loss since they can’t win a conference title.

Believe it or not, a 1-loss SEC runner-up Georgia is getting in this year. And there will be P5 conference champions left out. If you look at Georgia’s resume, they definitely should be out with a loss. They will have 0 big time wins, best is over 20th ranked Clemson. Either undefeated, conference champion Cincinnati or 1-loss, conference champion OSU (3 wins over Top 15 teams) will be left out for them.

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