CFB Playoff #5 CFP, #5 Coaches, #5 AP

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CampusCowboy

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Just watched a clip on ESPN - Herbstreit and a panel of analyst are thinking Cincy stays at #4 if they beat Houston, even if we beat Baylor. They can have their opinion. One of the things the CFP committee has consistently done is value big wins over losses. By beating OU and Baylor twice, we would clearly have have more better wins than Cincy and a harder schedule top to bottom. And as mentioned, a P5 conference title.

But hoping Geogia takes care of business vs Bama so it doesn't come down to that.
Guess I wish they were around in 2011 when quality losses counted more. Don’t think it would have changed anything though.


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SLVRBK

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College Football Playoff Rankings winners, losers: Brian Kelly leaving Notre Dame may prove costly for Irish
https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...GM_Eou9Gf6UnZPxETCVoVlYFmeWRTaGb1ip6rIMS8hjqI

Winner: Oklahoma State
It might not look this way, but the Cowboys control their own destiny. A win over No. 9 Baylor -- however it looks -- will be enough to jump Cincinnati and whomever else based on Saturday's results to get in the top four.

CFP selection committee chair Gary Barta said on the telecast that the committee found it difficult to separate Alabama, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State. If the Pokes top the Bears for the second time this year, and gets its second straight top-14 win to close out the season in the process, that would be more than enough to jump a Bearcats team that has a date with No. 21 Houston in the AAC Championship Game.

Even if Georgia loses and there's only one spot available for Oklahoma State and Cincinnati, Mike Gundy's crew would get the nod. The combination of a more difficult conference championship game and a tremendous closing argument for a team that has been flying under the radar all season would get the job done. Plus, does the committee really want to put a Group of Five team in the playoff? Nope.
 

wrenhal

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Just watched a clip on ESPN - Herbstreit and a panel of analyst are thinking Cincy stays at #4 if they beat Houston, even if we beat Baylor. They can have their opinion. One of the things the CFP committee has consistently done is value big wins over losses. By beating OU and Baylor twice, we would clearly have have more better wins than Cincy and a harder schedule top to bottom. And as mentioned, a P5 conference title.

But hoping Geogia takes care of business vs Bama so it doesn't come down to that.
They can stay at 4 and we swap with bama at 3.

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wrenhal

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I was assessing some of the data to see how strong our resume is. Unfortunately, so much stuff is subjective; “top 10 wins” are garbage when there’s no reason on earth for Ole Miss to be #8 at 10-2 but a 10-2 OU (who has only lost to OSU and Baylor) is #14. Strength of schedule and strength of record aren’t truly objective either, as ultimately there’s a strong degree of opinion engrained in the algorithms.

I propose a metric that is purely objective. It reflects both how tough your schedule is and how well you did against it, while eliminating subjective rankings. Call it quality wins or “playoff wins”; it is just the number of wins against teams who, if you removed the game where you beat them, their record would make them somebody in playoff contention. That means they would either be a 0 or 1 loss Power 5 team, or an undefeated Group of 5 team. For instance, if Bama didn’t play/beat Ole Miss, they would only have 1 loss, and would be a team in playoff contention, so that’s 1 “playoff win” for Bama. Baylor only has 1 loss if not for us, so our win over them is a playoff win (I would count Big 12 title game as another one if we win it, although they would have 3 losses, it would only be 1 loss if not for our 2 wins over them). For this metric, I include Notre Dame and BYU as Power 5 teams.

A list of the top 16 teams and their current number of “playoff wins” thus far this season:

2 wins: Oklahoma State (over OU and Baylor), Baylor (over OU and BYU)

1 win: Michigan, Bama, Cincinnati, Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan State

0 wins: Georgia, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, BYU, Iowa, OU, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
Just use the NemIndex or the marble game. As neutral as anything else.

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CampusCowboy

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Guess I wish they were around in 2011 when quality losses counted more. Don’t think it would have changed anything though.


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Quality losses did count. That's why we didn't get in.
Yep, I said back in 2011 quality losses counted more.

Seems to have flipped on its head now.


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Feb 15, 2017
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We already have a 12 team playoff- P5+G5 conference Champ games.
That's round one.
Now unfortunately, instead of 6 teams moving on, only 4 teams move on.
But since mostly P5 Conf Champs move on to the top 4, it is essentially a 12 team playoff right now.
 
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They can stay at 4 and we swap with bama at 3.

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That's why I said Georgia really needs to beat Bama and Bama drop out, so it does not get down to us vs Cincy for the last spot - that's the best outcome for us, and a Cincy loss to UH would help too. I'd think we'd still get the 4th spot with a win over BU even if Cincy beats UH, but a little concerned since I am hearing different from other sources plugging for Cincy to stay in if they win. In the end, it's what the committee thinks, not the other sources.

I said weeks ago we needed some help to make it even if we win out, and we got some. Need just a couple of more things to fall right this week, the biggest being not having two SEC teams in the final four.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Just watched a clip on ESPN - Herbstreit and a panel of analyst are thinking Cincy stays at #4 if they beat Houston, even if we beat Baylor. They can have their opinion. One of the things the CFP committee has consistently done is value big wins over losses. By beating OU and Baylor twice, we would clearly have have more better wins than Cincy and a harder schedule top to bottom. And as mentioned, a P5 conference title.

But hoping Geogia takes care of business vs Bama so it doesn't come down to that.
ESPN must have theme to their script for ratings purposes. I find it amazing they almost completely ignore the history of the final rankings relative to conference champions v final records, the original concept of the CFP to give the highest ranked G5 team a slot in the NY6 games, and the actual resumes of each of the teams in contention. Not sure how the script they’re following necessarily results in better ratings, but I’m not the TV guy.

I mostly ignore what Herby and Galloway say. Herby is the script guy, and Galloway is just a waffling knucklehead that seems incapable of looking into the future with any sort of intelligent take.


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Sep 29, 2011
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They can stay at 4 and we swap with bama at 3.

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That's why I said Georgia really needs to beat Bama and Bama drop out, so it does not get down to us vs Cincy for the last spot - that's the best outcome for us, and a Cincy loss to UH would help too. I'd think we'd still get the 4th spot with a win over BU even if Cincy beats UH, but a little concerned since I am hearing different from other sources plugging for Cincy to stay in if they win. In the end, it's what the committee thinks, not the other sources.

I said weeks ago we needed some help to make it even if we win out, and we got some. Need just a couple of more things to fall right this week, the biggest being not having two SEC teams in the final four.
Curious. What help did we get besides possibly Utah beating Oregon?


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OkstateKerr

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That's why I said Georgia really needs to beat Bama and Bama drop out, so it does not get down to us vs Cincy for the last spot - that's the best outcome for us, and a Cincy loss to UH would help too. I'd think we'd still get the 4th spot with a win over BU even if Cincy beats UH, but a little concerned since I am hearing different from other sources plugging for Cincy to stay in if they win. In the end, it's what the committee thinks, not the other sources.

I said weeks ago we needed some help to make it even if we win out, and we got some. Need just a couple of more things to fall right this week, the biggest being not having two SEC teams in the final four.
I think that if we beat Baylor and Georgia beats Bama we finish #3 minimum regardless of what happens in the other games. 2 top 10 wins in 2 weeks will push us over Cincinatti. And tin foil hat time, the CFB will "punish" Cincy for trying to crash the big boy party and have them play Georgia in round one.
 

OSUCowboy787

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This shouldn't even really be a discussion. As we were told when this whole thing started, conference championships mean something. So Georgia or Bama if they lose should be out. Sorry Georgia you appeared good on paper but if you get beat by a mediocre Bama team then you get to sit this one out. Bama shouldn't even be top 4 right now with their profile. Top 4 should be as of now if they predicted conference champions (based on records)

1) Georgia
2) Michigan
3) OkState
4) Cincy

It's really not that hard but the committee has to build drama for ratings.

If Bama wins it should probably be something like

1)Michigan
2)Okstate
3) Bama
4)Cincy