Big 12 week 11

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The Poke

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Our ceiling is #7 unless Oregon, Cincinnati, or Notre Dame lose a game. There's won't be any other reason in the committee's collective minds for us to jump them.

At least one of the Big 10 teams above us is guaranteed a loss. Probably 2 of them, but Ohio State could lose both games in their little round-robin coming up.

EDIT: By the way, that includes Alabama losing again. They still won't fall behind us even if they do.
We will likely be in the #9 slot this week with 3 ahead of us. Win out and we will have been on an impressive 6 game win streak. Two of the next 3 games will be against ranked opponents. There will be a few losses above us as you noted. This team still won't win the "helmet sticker" battle but our last 3 wins are starting to pass the "eye test" on both sides of the ball.

The committee would love to find a replacement for Cincy and our momentum might do just that over the next 3 games.
 
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Oct 11, 2008
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We will likely be in the #9 slot this week with 3 ahead of us. Win out and we will have been on an impressive 6 game win streak. Two of the next 3 games will be against ranked opponents. There will be a few losses above us as you noted. This team still won't win the "helmet sticker" battle but our last 3 wins are starting to pass the "eye test" on both sides of the ball.
We won't pass any team that doesn't lose.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Our ceiling is #7 unless Oregon, Cincinnati, or Notre Dame lose a game. There's won't be any other reason in the committee's collective minds for us to jump them.

At least one of the Big 10 teams above us is guaranteed a loss. Probably 2 of them, but Ohio State could lose both games in their little round-robin coming up.

EDIT: By the way, that includes Alabama losing again. They still won't fall behind us even if they do.
Lol.

Two of Mich, MSU and tOSU are guaranteed to have two losses. Oregon has to play Utah twice. Even if they win out, they’ll have the worst possible resume of any 1-loss P5 team. Cincy will have the worst resume regardless of their record. ND won’t have a championship.

Did you see 538 sports analysis? It shows we have a 97% chance of making the CFP if we win out. How could they be 97% wrong?

Oh, I forgot. You’re good at picks and know what will happen. Congrats on picking KU, TT and BU yesterday.


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The Poke

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I'm aware. They were passed over for "deserving" teams. Not us.
Another interesting tidbit... All 4 CFP qualifiers that year had 1 loss each and all 4 were P5 schools. UCF was left out because they're in a lesser conference (they are now fixing that). As I posted earlier, some team stepping up to help the committee with their "Cincy problem" will be welcomed. The talking points this week will start to plant negative seeds regarding Cincy, their schedule, and their conference.
 
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Another interesting tidbit... All 4 CFP qualifiers that year had 1 loss each and all 4 were P5 schools. UCF was left out because they're in a lesser conference (they are now fixing that). As I posted earlier, some team stepping up to help the committee with their "Cincy problem" will be welcomed. The talking points this week will start to plant negative seeds regarding Cincy, their schedule, and their conference.
I wouldn’t be so sure of that, remember that ESPN owns the rights to the AAC and wanted to get the rest of the Big XII teams to join the AAC instead of building back the Big XII post OU/TX
 
Oct 11, 2008
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Another interesting tidbit... All 4 CFP qualifiers that year had 1 loss each and all 4 were P5 schools. UCF was left out because they're in a lesser conference (they are now fixing that). As I posted earlier, some team stepping up to help the committee with their "Cincy problem" will be welcomed. The talking points this week will start to plant negative seeds regarding Cincy, their schedule, and their conference.
Bingo. Also look for more and more talk about how "the Big 12 is a mess" and no teams from that conference will make the playoffs.
 
Dec 2, 2008
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Bingo. Also look for more and more talk about how "the Big 12 is a mess" and no teams from that conference will make the playoffs.
THIS. I’ve been saying for weeks that if OU loses the media will start talking about how weak the conference is. And now that Texass lost to KU that will reaffirm that position.
 

The Poke

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Jun 4, 2007
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Another interesting tidbit... All 4 CFP qualifiers that year had 1 loss each and all 4 were P5 schools. UCF was left out because they're in a lesser conference (they are now fixing that). As I posted earlier, some team stepping up to help the committee with their "Cincy problem" will be welcomed. The talking points this week will start to plant negative seeds regarding Cincy, their schedule, and their conference.
Here's some of that "seed planting" coming from ESPN.


Cincinnati remains the upstart underdog hoping to crash the blue-blood party, and the Bearcats' 17-point win over USF on Friday served as a perfect middle ground in the "they don't belong" narrative. It was just impressive enough to eschew further criticism, but hardly good enough to woo any of their critics.

If the playoff had already expanded, Oklahoma State and Michigan and Notre Dame and Wake Forest would be firmly entrenched as the "teams no one wants to play in the first round" -- talented, hungry, peaking at the right time.

But after Saturday's latest round of chaos (or near-chaos), it's probably worth remembering that there's a wide path between what we expect to happen and what actually does. It's a path the Irish or the Wolverines, the Deacons or the Cowboys could travel, and end up in a place none of us might have imagined just a few weeks ago.

How Oklahoma State, Michigan, Notre Dame and Wake Forest could benefit from Week 11 volatility (espn.com)