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Berry Tramel: Mathematishun

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ScooberJake

ScooberJake

Territorial Marshal
#1
Jul 13, 2004
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#1
Saw this absurdity today and just couldn't let it slide without a little mockery.

Tie game, late, you figure overtime is a 50-50 proposition, although in this case, OSU clearly was considered the better team, so maybe you give the Cowboys a 52-48 edge.
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First of all, wow, commas! But we all know Berry's not a writer, so ok...

So whatever chance you give OSU of scoring on the last possession adds to the 52 percent... I'd estimate OSU's chances of scoring on a last-second shot somewhere between 30-40 percent... But add 35 percent to the 50/52 percent chance of overtime, and OSU was looking at an 85/87 percent chance of winning...
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Since the chances of winning in overtime only happen after missing the last second shot, those multiply. Just a little thought would show you that. Imagine that you estimate OSU's chances of winning in overtime to be 60% instead of 52%, and our chances of scoring on a last second shot to be 40%. Just estimates, like Berry's, still reasonable. Looks like you could say we were guaranteed a win, or maybe even give us that coveted 105% chance of winning. ;)

If we do it correctly and use his numbers, our chances of winning given the ball, tie game, and a last second shot would be: 0.35 + (1 - 0.35)*0.52 = 68.8%. Doing the math for TCU gives you: 0.0 + (1 - 0.35) * 0.48 = 33.8%. Those conveniently add to 100%.
 
M

marvin7

Greenhorn
#6
Dec 12, 2020
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#6
ScooberJake said:
If we do it correctly and use his numbers, our chances of winning given the ball, tie game, and a last second shot would be: 0.35 + (1 - 0.35)*0.52 = 68.8%. Doing the math for TCU gives you: 0.0 + (1 - 0.35) * 0.48 = 33.8%. Those conveniently add to 100%.
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You are correct, sir.
Also conveniently, 35% is roughly 1/3, so another way to put it is this:
~1/3 of the time OSU wins in regulation, and for the 2/3 of the time that OSU doesn't win in regulation, they still win half of that time...so 1/3 +(2/3)*0.5 = 2/3, which is effectively equal to the 68.8% you wrote.

Barry's mistake was that he left out the (2/3), an error which you put into words as "the chances of winning in overtime only happen after missing the last second shot."
 
A

AI-Cowboy

Cowboy
#8
Nov 21, 2018
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#8
Brenda Masters was my statistics professor back in the mid 90’s, she’d be proud of this thread. Looked her up and she’s still torturing students to this day!

In the words of Brian Fontana (Anchorman)....”60% of the time, Tramel is right every time”.


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OSU79

OSU79

Federal Marshal
A/V Subscriber
#13
Oct 22, 2009
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#13
PerryPoke77

PerryPoke77

Deputy
#18
Aug 9, 2011
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#18
AI-Cowboy said:
Brenda Masters was my statistics professor back in the mid 90’s, she’d be proud of this thread. Looked her up and she’s still torturing students to this day!

In the words of Brian Fontana (Anchorman)....”60% of the time, Tramel is right every time”.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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OMG...I remember her class. The only F I got ever in my schooling. She would lecture and then there was nothing even remotely about her lectures on her tests! I found out that my major did away with having her class as a requirement the next semester and they refused to expunge the F. Killed my GPA!
 
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