7 point dog going into Ames

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llcoolw

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Way more ppl bet the spread. And that 70% went against them


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You don’t know what spread those people got. You can tease spread bets in Vegas. And most got 6.5 to 7 points for picking us. They still won. It’s hard to fathom many taking Iowa and giving a td too. Vegas got exactly what they needed. Us to lose but not by the spread.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Way more ppl bet the spread. And that 70% went against them


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You don’t know what spread those people got. You can tease spread bets in Vegas. And most got 6.5 to 7 points for picking us. They still won. It’s hard to fathom many taking Iowa and giving a td too. Vegas got exactly what they needed. Us to lose but not by the spread.
So the majority of the money was on OSU +6.5 or more and Vegas got what they wanted (pay out less than they took in)? For that to be the case, an equal amount of money would have to have been bet on the money line, with more than 70% on OSU.

Not buying it.


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llcoolw

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So the majority of the money was on OSU +6.5 or more and Vegas got what they wanted? For that to be the case, an equal amount of money would have to have been bet on the money line, with more than 70% on OSU.

Not buying it.


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I should of never brought up money lines. Those have zero to do with spreads. As stated, there are 100’s of books. How do we know how each one does? We don’t.

When it comes to spread bets, I assure you, they use nasdaq trading software and they’re not losing a penny.

Money line is sort of similar. It’s adjustable number that changes with each bet. I don’t know how they decide those at the start. But like our game I think it was 200 bucks on us wins $120. On them, it was like $260. I don’t know exactly because I don’t follow money lines. The only numbers we can see are the ones they show us. They told us 87% took us in money lines. And at game time the spread betting dropped to 68% on us. That’s just one book. Those ending percentages are just that, the end. Just because 68% of the spread bettors took us, we don’t know their spreads. More importantly we don’t know THE SIZE OF THEIR BETS.


Ten people.

7 people take us and get +6.5 and each bet $20.

$140 on us.

3 people take ISU and give -6.5 and each bet $100.

$300 on them.

ISU loses the spread.

Vegas wins $330 because 10% on losses (vig)

So 30% loss the spread. 70% won the spread for $140.

Vegas still clears $190.

We will never get to see that data. Most protected secret in the industry.

And just like spreads, money line bets move by the bet. No, $100 won’t move it for the guy behind you. But when 10 bookies from every town in the US, calls in their layoffs to the big guys, those lines change by the fraction of a second.
 

llcoolw

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There is an instance however, where they can win it all and one where they can lose all of it. It happens once to twice a year. Something about an irregular opening like line. Early bargain hunters destroy it by jumping on and buying up as much as they can. They can sale those spreads later at marked up points. Then an injury or major event that resets the line. Now there’s 2 lines out there. And sometimes, just sometimes, a game will end between the two spreads.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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So the majority of the money was on OSU +6.5 or more and Vegas got what they wanted? For that to be the case, an equal amount of money would have to have been bet on the money line, with more than 70% on OSU.

Not buying it.


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I should of never brought up money lines. Those have zero to do with spreads. As stated, there are 100’s of books. How do we know how each one does? We don’t.

When it comes to spread bets, I assure you, they use nasdaq trading software and they’re not losing a penny.

Money line is sort of similar. It’s adjustable number that changes with each bet. I don’t know how they decide those at the start. But like our game I think it was 200 bucks on us wins $120. On them, it was like $260. I don’t know exactly because I don’t follow money lines. The only numbers we can see are the ones they show us. They told us 87% took us in money lines. And at game time the spread betting dropped to 68% on us. That’s just one book. Those ending percentages are just that, the end. Just because 68% of the spread bettors took us, we don’t know their spreads. More importantly we don’t know THE SIZE OF THEIR BETS.


Ten people.

7 people take us and get +6.5 and each bet $20.

$140 on us.

3 people take ISU and give -6.5 and each bet $100.

$300 on them.

ISU loses the spread.

Vegas wins $330 because 10% on losses (vig)

So 30% loss the spread. 70% won the spread for $140.

Vegas still clears $190.

We will never get to see that data. Most protected secret in the industry.

And just like spreads, money line bets move by the bet. No, $100 won’t move it for the guy behind you. But when 10 bookies from every town in the US, calls in their layoffs to the big guys, those lines change by the fraction of a second.
I think you just proved my point.

Flip the bets to $300 on OSU + 6.5 and $140 on ISU -6.5. That’s roughly 70% of the money on OSU. How did Vegas not lose?


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llcoolw

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I think you just proved my point.

Flip the bets to $300 on OSU + 6.5 and $140 on ISU -6.5. That’s roughly 70% of the money on OSU. How did Vegas not lose?


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Have you been to Vegas? Do you really think they are in the losing money business?

It is within the realm of possibility that every single bettor took ISU. Furthermore, it’s within the realm of possibilities that no one in America bet the game. I mean if we are just guessing here.

If you’re looking for a central clearing house where they report how they did, there isn’t. The only way you know a rare instance happened is there will be a write up in the Las Vegas Review Journal of the party/wake the casino threw for their book.
 
Feb 15, 2017
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When you said “70% of the money was on OSU” then claim you don’t know how much actual money was on OSU and you really meant 70% of the bets were on OSU ….. well now I don’t believe much of what you claim to know.
 
Jan 15, 2017
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You guys are way overthinking this, it’s like arguing if Walmart loses $.10 on every bottle of toothpaste they sell. They know you are not coming into Walmart to just buy toothpaste, they are making $10 off of you on other products even if they lose a little on toothpaste. There’s no way they win money on every game but we’re talking about hundreds of games every week. Do you guys think casinos go broke because someone wins a jackpot on a slot machine? Lol
 
Sep 29, 2011
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I think you just proved my point.

Flip the bets to $300 on OSU + 6.5 and $140 on ISU -6.5. That’s roughly 70% of the money on OSU. How did Vegas not lose?


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Have you been to Vegas? Do you really think they are in the losing money business?

It is within the realm of possibility that every single bettor took ISU. Furthermore, it’s within the realm of possibilities that no one in America bet the game. I mean if we are just guessing here.

If you’re looking for a central clearing house where they report how they did, there isn’t. The only way you know a rare instance happened is there will be a write up in the Las Vegas Review Journal of the party/wake the casino threw for their book.
In your example Vegas wins money. I assume you believe that’s possible. And if it’s possible Vegas can win money on a single line, I would BET they can also lose money on a single line.

In simple terms, if any one book takes in more than 52.4% of the MONEY (including the juice) on one side of a spread bet, the book makes money (in addition to the juice) if the more than 52.4% is on the losing side, but the book loses money (including the juice) if the more than 52.4% is on the winning side. All this assumes the book doesn’t lay off their risk on another book.


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Sep 29, 2011
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You guys are way overthinking this, it’s like arguing if Walmart loses $.10 on every bottle of toothpaste they sell. They know you are not coming into Walmart to just buy toothpaste, they are making $10 off of you on other products even if they lose a little on toothpaste. There’s no way they win money on every game but we’re talking about hundreds of games every week. Do you guys think casinos go broke because someone wins a jackpot on a slot machine? Lol
Vegas absolutely wins money. They take in millions of bets for billions of dollars. They win some, they lose some, but make the juice regardless.

I don’t think anyone is suggesting The Vegas sports books aren’t the overall winner.


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llcoolw

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When you said “70% of the money was on OSU” then claim you don’t know how much actual money was on OSU and you really meant 70% of the bets were on OSU ….. well now I don’t believe much of what you claim to know.
These numbers that tell you percentages are from each bookmaker. So when I said 70%. I was referring to the link to cover.com that I provided. One out of hundreds. I use that one because over time, the odds will become similar and same for percentages of bets either way. As stated by Gumby, there’s a threshold where they may be exposed to higher than 52% betting one way. They never just sit there and take that. They will find another book that hasn’t reached the threshold of 52% and “layoff” the excess betting on to the ones that need it. This is where I’m trying to explain how rigged the system is against us and they’ve completely put themselves in a safe harbor. Except 1-2 times a year, some books will win all of the betting and sometimes lose it all. They know it’s coming and can weather it easily. Corporate bookmakers will shut down the bet before it goes over that cutoff. Local bookies don’t have a clue.
 

llcoolw

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Feb 7, 2005
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In your example Vegas wins money. I assume you believe that’s possible. And if it’s possible Vegas can win money on a single line, I would BET they can also lose money on a single line.

In simple terms, if any one book takes in more than 52.4% of the MONEY (including the juice) on one side of a spread bet, the book makes money (in addition to the juice) if the more than 52.4% is on the losing side, but the book loses money (including the juice) if the more than 52.4% is on the winning side. All this assumes the book doesn’t lay off their risk on another book.


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I see what you’re saying now. That’s the unfairness of it all. If they can’t get the opposing action to make money both ways, the game mysteriously falls off the board. Usually a bs excuse but sometimes they’ll say it. You’ll see it with certain teams too. Like Florida Atlantic. Vanderbilt used to be a great safety valve for parlay bettors. They always covered, never won. But if there wasn’t enough action, it’d get pulled. And the parlay sheets have already been printed and wagered on, so back then, the parlay was allowed to be a push. And you’d at least get your bet back. Sure they void the sheet now.

Now as far as the neighborhood guy, they can’t afford to pull it even if their superiors do pull it. Particularly if it’s a local team. In those cases, they’ll add or subtract astronomical numbers to get back to even. THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS BARGAINS HERE IF YOU'RE WILLING TO REVERSE YOUR BET.
 

llcoolw

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You guys are way overthinking this, it’s like arguing if Walmart loses $.10 on every bottle of toothpaste they sell. They know you are not coming into Walmart to just buy toothpaste, they are making $10 off of you on other products even if they lose a little on toothpaste. There’s no way they win money on every game but we’re talking about hundreds of games every week. Do you guys think casinos go broke because someone wins a jackpot on a slot machine? Lol
Believe it or not, I know professional slot machine players. 2 of them. And it’s insane how good they are. One owns a slot machine software writing company and he taught the other one. I followed both for 4 days copying everything they did. I broke even. The guy clears close 9k, the lady he taught walked out with 23k in hand. I believe them to be luckier than most and they just laugh evilly and say it’s impossible, but I’m superstitious.

The only game I’m serious about is poker. In particular, Omaha hi/lo. Came real close to a WSOP bracelet in 11’.
 

llcoolw

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When you said “70% of the money was on OSU” then claim you don’t know how much actual money was on OSU and you really meant 70% of the bets were on OSU ….. well now I don’t believe much of what you claim to know.
And we need to use the real terminology so this disconnect doesn’t happen. And it’s my bad. I shouldn’t have said 70% of the money, it’s 70% of the action. Money and action are two completely different things.
 
Oct 7, 2012
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Damn, llcool. You'd be fun to have a beer with and at 76, I've never gambled. My mother took me for $5 on the 1957 World Series and I learned my lesson.
Yeah, I agree. As stated previously I’ve ever bet real money. Just hamburgers with friends. But I’ve found the conversation interesting and ominous.
 

llcoolw

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Damn, llcool. You'd be fun to have a beer with and at 76, I've never gambled. My mother took me for $5 on the 1957 World Series and I learned my lesson.
That was back when money was real:pistols:
Ha. Just poking. I just happened along in human history at the right time in terms of wagering industry and technology merging. I learned young and I try as much as I can to pass on the pain lessons hoping at least one person avoids them. Like the movie Rounders, do you really think poker is gambling? It’s the only gambling game left that I respect. Maybe blackjack, I respect a table of players that know the odds as well as how to play their chairs.

If there’s a casino or some good golf at our next bowl game, let’s have that beer.
Yeah, I agree. As stated previously I’ve ever bet real money. Just hamburgers with friends. But I’ve found the conversation interesting and ominous.
That’s the only reason I got interested in spreads again. We are doing very well recently in that regard but the knowledge we all had before our game, knowing we were -7; that helped me to keep perspective and that this game was going to be way harder than I initially eyeballed it.
 
Jan 21, 2006
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The money certainly was real. I got $1.50 for mowing and trimming a Bartlesville yard. $5.00 was several hours in the hot sun. My mother offered me a can't lose deal. I could pick either team, so I took the Yankees because they always won. Lew Burdette of Milwaukee won 3 games and the Braves won in 7.