7 point dog going into Ames

  • You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.

llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
8,377
3,786
1,743
Sammamish, Washington.Dallas, Texas.Maui, Hawaii
Okay, but are every sports book’s lines initially set by a single entity?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It was him when I was at my peak. I quit probably 3-5 years after him. During that time, it fell on the corporation’s owning Vegas. Simultaneously, cell phones with cameras were coming out. There was a lot of “stealing” of proprietary secrets in those years. I got thrown out of caesars just for standing next to the book talking on my cell.

One of 2 reasons neither good they said. Either I was taking action on my phone and laying it off on them or I was covertly taking pictures of their lines. I told them it was both, they didn’t think it very funny and I haven’t been allowed back since. I just tested their security literally just 2 months ago. They have forgotten all about me now.
 

llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
8,377
3,786
1,743
Sammamish, Washington.Dallas, Texas.Maui, Hawaii
The line is staying at +7 despite the majority of college football fans and 68% of bettors thinking that number is too high. This has been one of the oddest lines I’ve ever followed, hope it doesn’t turn into Vegas pantsing everyone. I say Pokes 31-20.
Wanted to avoid this part as it really gets confusing. Look at the one titled money line in your gif.
https://www.moneyline.com/guides/moneyline-bet

There are separate bets for just picking a straight up winner without spreads. Obviously, those require different amount bets depending on the payout you’re looking for. $100 on OSU won’t payback the same as a $100 on ISU.
 

llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
8,377
3,786
1,743
Sammamish, Washington.Dallas, Texas.Maui, Hawaii
Is everyone forgetting this happened ... last week? Vegas does lose, sometimes really big. Doesn't happen a lot, but it does happen.
Last week made a bit more sense. We were +3.5 at Texas. Is Iowa State twice as good as Texas? Or are we now twice as worse as last week? This is where the masses are asses comes in, almost as if the “fix” is in. Let’s just hope we are on the “20” side of the 80-20 rule. Cause 80% of these too good to be true lines bites the masses in the asses.
 
Oct 11, 2008
3,501
1,086
1,743
Oklahoma City, OK
I'm just saying I'm hearing a lot of "Vegas knows what they're doing." Well, last week, Vegas lost around 90% of the bets on our game.

But, yeah ... the line this week has made no sense from the time it came out.
 
Aug 16, 2012
3,233
1,447
743
58
Okay, but are every sports book’s lines initially set by a single entity?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
@llcoolw 's reply not withstanding, no they really do not. Each book has their own staff of dozens if not hundreds of analyst and linemakers. Everything comes out relatively close because everyone doing it knows what everyone else has plugged in to their analysis. The better books know when to tweak it in their favor.

Look up Jay Kornegay. I know Jay dating back to our JHS days at McCormick JHS in Cheyenne, Wyoming in the late 70's. He is one of the preeminent book runners in Vegas, currently running the show at the Westgate (former Hilton) Superbook. --interesting sidenote, Jay is a goofball. Got a Restaurant/Hotel Management degree from Colorado State and moved into book making simply because he thought it was interesting. He is not some sort of numbers savant like Andy Beal, but just a guy who understands the industry like few others.

But to my point, https://www.docsports.com/how-to-what-is-does/who-sets-odds-sports-betting-517.html#
 
Sep 29, 2011
3,365
828
1,743
62
Breckenridge, CO
Okay, but are every sports book’s lines initially set by a single entity?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
@llcoolw 's reply not withstanding, no they really do not. Each book has their own staff of dozens if not hundreds of analyst and linemakers. Everything comes out relatively close because everyone doing it knows what everyone else has plugged in to their analysis. The better books know when to tweak it in their favor.

Look up Jay Kornegay. I know Jay dating back to our JHS days at McCormick JHS in Cheyenne, Wyoming in the late 70's. He is one of the preeminent book runners in Vegas, currently running the show at the Westgate (former Hilton) Superbook. --interesting sidenote, Jay is a goofball. Got a Restaurant/Hotel Management degree from Colorado State and moved into book making simply because he thought it was interesting. He is not some sort of numbers savant like Andy Beal, but just a guy who understands the industry like few others.

But to my point, https://www.docsports.com/how-to-what-is-does/who-sets-odds-sports-betting-517.html#
So coincidentally, every sports book opened at ISU -6.5? How does that make any sense?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
8,377
3,786
1,743
Sammamish, Washington.Dallas, Texas.Maui, Hawaii
So coincidentally, every sports book opened at ISU -6.5? How does that make any sense?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
They didn’t. Covers.com on a Sunday night or Monday morning. They list around 10-20 different books to choose from. Huge range to shop from early. But it’s risky to do so. Practice injuries or unknown weather. As the week progresses, they start to merge into a closeness.
 
Aug 16, 2012
3,233
1,447
743
58
So coincidentally, every sports book opened at ISU -6.5? How does that make any sense?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I can only surmise, but as I stated, as secretive as their work is, from the inside they all look at most of the same data. As LL stated, what to do with the data has been more or less standardized since the days of Rothstein. In-house players come and go, for instance Jay has been with no less than three books. As with any industry, underlings looking to move up change books and bring insight with them. I do not have a hard answer but if everyone is looking at the same data and subscribes to the same school of thought regarding what to do with it, sort of makes sense that lines all turn out similar. One of the reasons for some books offering the oddball prop bets. If everyone is serving the same burger, try to draw more people your way by offering salad, fish and chicken.