Wuhan Coronavirus

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RxCowboy

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I know what a 95% CI is. If the 95% CI for the r0 ranged from 1 to 100, that tells you that your estimate likely sucks because your confidence band is so large or "wide". You'd conclude the opposite if the CI ranged from 5.6 to 5.8. You feel a lot more confident in your estimate of 5.7.

In my world, we have to submit CIs for all kinds of things but aORs and RRs are probably the most common in my work. If I submit an article where my main predictor has an aOR CI ranging from 1.5 to 20.0, there's a good chance I'm getting rejected precisely because it tells you my aOR estimate is unstable. No, there's no absolute indicator of "width" and I never said there was. We still do look at the spread of a CI and make meaningful inferences.
But the 95%CI isn't only a function of the variability, it is also a function of the size of the sample. But, eh, whatevs.
 
May 4, 2011
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But the 95%CI isn't only a function of the variability, it is also a function of the size of the sample. But, eh, whatevs.
Holy hell. I said that exact thing in a previous post. Yet again, a small sample size contributes to lack of precision, which is a reason we'd be interested in the range, "width", size of a CI. Back to the point here in practical terms, it does suggest suggest the r0 could likely range from the very upper end of prior estimates to spreading like HPV on a porn set.
 

Jostate

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This was not a thing back in my younger days. If anyone was doing it, they certainly weren't talking about it. It seems like it's a popular thing now.
What was once the ultimate slam when I was a kid is now a box you can check on adult dating sites.
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
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Why does government action always seem to lag the actual problem...in this case I think the government actions seem to lag the problems by about a month or so.
It takes 50 state gvt’s and 3 layers at the fed to agree. That they acted this quick is somewhat miraculous, Americans don’t tend to consider it important until they see the effect, that’s why 9/11 was so effective, people were immediately impacted some were scared and some were pissed but everyone felt something instantly. In this case as late as mid January the un by way of who told us we had nothing to worry about.
 
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ksupoke

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https://twitter.com/realcandaceo/status/1247887750029651978?s=21
Precisely the point I made in my perspective post, Ca is in the midst of our deadliest influenza season of recent history, how many who die, die with china virus vs of.
There was a well known fb player who died recently, headline was he died of covid19 (china virus) read the story, he had been battling dementia and Alzheimer’s as well as other health conditions for years. So did this shorten his life, probably but would it have killed him short of everything else, no way to know.
 

Jostate

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For those who still believe India's numbers you'll be excited to know their total dead number went down to 178. So 10 people rose from the dead in the last week.
 
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Interesting...we have 28% of the worlds coronavirus cases yet only 4.25% of worlds population. Are many underreporting or is it quite possible that we are over reporting or that the test itself is flawed?

Heres an idea...quit testing for people with mild illness and only test for those presenting to EDs and those admitted to hospitals. Everyone else...if youre sick stay home. All this drive up testing is a complete waste of resources. Not only that, it leads to exposing our critical healthcare workers to illness.

Also, average time to get results is 7 days. By the time some are getting results, they are either getting better or theyve gotten so sick they are showing up in the ED and getting tested again.
 

ksupoke

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The same governor who ordered all Ca schools closed has also now ordered all school districts to create student supervision programs (in the schools) for the children of essential workers.
So the state can babysit a dozen or so kids in a classroom but play catch with your neighbor and there’ll be hell to pay.
This state is one giant sitcom that writes itself.
 

RxCowboy

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Precisely the point I made in my perspective post, Ca is in the midst of our deadliest influenza season of recent history, how many who die, die with china virus vs of.
There was a well known fb player who died recently, headline was he died of covid19 (china virus) read the story, he had been battling dementia and Alzheimer’s as well as other health conditions for years. So did this shorten his life, probably but would it have killed him short of everything else, no way to know.
That "no way to know" isn't really true, because COVID-19 presents with a constellation of symtpoms. Let's focus on three: high fever, interstitial pneumonia, ARDS. If the fb player who died recently had high fever, pneumonia, and ARDS a the time of his death, then why isn't reasonable to assume that it was COVID-19 that caused the death and not Alzhiemers, which doesn't cause fever, pneumonia, and ARDS? Should we throw up our hands in the face of a worldwide pandemic and say, "screw it, we just don't know," or can we assume when it's pretty safe to assume?
 

ksupoke

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That "no way to know" isn't really true, because COVID-19 presents with a constellation of symtpoms. Let's focus on three: high fever, interstitial pneumonia, ARDS. If the fb player who died recently had high fever, pneumonia, and ARDS a the time of his death, then why isn't reasonable to assume that it was COVID-19 that caused the death and not Alzhiemers, which doesn't cause fever, pneumonia, and ARDS? Should we throw up our hands in the face of a worldwide pandemic and say, "screw it, we just don't know," or can we assume when it's pretty safe to assume?
That’s not what I posted and you know that. I’ve made no comment on anything medical related to this nor will I, I won’t be an Internet researcher. There’s nothing wrong with questioning anything and specifically when it comes from a government.
The influenza that the pho in the sacbee article was referencing presents itself with the same types of symptoms as the china virus and crazy enough it appears, if you believe the states data, it has a very similar mortality rate and a similar age, race and gender breakdown.

It’s already been acknowledged that anyone who dies with china virus is counted in the china virus death numbers, imo, that’s simply incredulous.
You can die with something and not of it, that seems to be missing in this equation.