Vegas odds to win big 12 (football)

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Midnight Toker

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#21
They need an average QB. They have Cornelius. I think you underestimate how much justice hill will bail any QB out. If he can throw a few decent passes then the offense will be humming. He doesn’t need to throw huge passes like Rudolph. He just needs to be a threat to be dangerous. Honestly, the Hawaii transfer is the coin toss. If he can play then OSU will be very good. OSU has won games with decent QBs and I think they will atleast have that.
I dont think you can win today's big 12 with average qb play, not unless you have super stars surrounding him (and Osu's are yet to be proven except the RB), and good defense. Part of what made Hill so dangerous was defenses having to keep honest with Rudolph's ability to punish them, so i can imagine that he will be seeing more stacked boxes this season.

List of the last 10 years of big 12 champion qbs:
Mayfield, Trevon Boykin, Bryce Petty, Landry Jones, Collin Klein, Brandon Weeden, Colt Mccoy, and Sam Bradford. The only outlier in 10 seasons is Klein, but they had a good defense that year. But in 2018, i dont think that 2012 ksu team would be nearly as successful.

Hey, no need in explaining that to a Sooner fan. Other than Sammy Bradford, all they've ever had is a "decent" at best QB and they've won plenty of games.
There is nothing here that needs to be explained to me. My college football fanhood of OU doesnt mean I dont understand the sport. Umm, OU has almost always had great qb play, Bradford is just one of them. Are you trying to be sarcastic or something? They have been much better than 'decent'
 

PontiacPoke717

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#22
It's a qb driven league, you live and die by the qb, and it's a huge factor. I feel that's Osu's most glaring question. I would be very surprised if they win 9, but it's possible.
That's 0U's biggest question too.

You can argue with me all day, but he still hasn't proven anything on the field against average competition. The one thing that can mask average QB play (see Dak albeit he is below average) is a great OL though and 0U definitely has that.

As for OSU, it'll definitely be hard to replace Rudolph, but we have had 1 non-serviceable QB (Dax) in the last decade and he had 0 OL help.

The track record is there for OSU to fit a system around the QB, while it's concerning losing an elite talent, we've gotten by in the past as well. The safety position and secondary in general is where my concern is the most.
 

Midnight Toker

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#23
It's a qb driven league, you live and die by the qb, and it's a huge factor. I feel that's Osu's most glaring question. I would be very surprised if they win 9, but it's possible.
That's 0U's biggest question too.

You can argue with me all day, but he still hasn't proven anything on the field against average competition. The one thing that can mask average QB play (see Dak albeit he is below average) is a great OL though and 0U definitely has that.

As for OSU, it'll definitely be hard to replace Rudolph, but we have had 1 non-serviceable QB (Dax) in the last decade and he had 0 OL help.

The track record is there for OSU to fit a system around the QB, while it's concerning losing an elite talent, we've gotten by in the past as well. The safety position and secondary in general is where my concern is the most.
Of course is a question mark. But not as much of one. They have two qbs on the roster who are in their third year in Riley’s system and they love em both. Having so much proven talent surrounding whoever the qb will be huge too. Murray hasn’t had a chance to prove a lot yet but you can’t argue with completing 18/21 passes you make all year. But we have seen them in sparing action. The osu qbs I think are more of a mystery. If they are good then they’ll be fine but I don’t think osu wins 9 behind anyone other than sanders
 
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#24
I agree its a QB league, however in 2013 (Ouch I know) Chelf didn't have mind blowing stats. I'd say 2100 yds passing with 17 TDs and 8 INT's is pretty pedestrian. Roland ran for 847 and 13 TDs and our defense was pretty salty. TCU finished second last year and Hill threw for 2800 with 21 TDs and 6 INT's. So somewhat comparable and TCU had a pretty decent defense as well and Anderson ran for 770 and 8 TD's. If Cornelius can have similar stats and we can get our defense off the field I would say 9 wins isn't a stretch. I do think that's our ceiling and would love for them to make a liar out of me.
 
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#25
There's got to be a sports bar somewhere called "Jilted Longhorn Lovers" where all these media types who slobber over all things UT can go to cry in their beer and discuss why the talent can't perform as advertised.
 

Midnight Toker

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#26
I agree its a QB league, however in 2013 (Ouch I know) Chelf didn't have mind blowing stats. I'd say 2100 yds passing with 17 TDs and 8 INT's is pretty pedestrian. Roland ran for 847 and 13 TDs and our defense was pretty salty. TCU finished second last year and Hill threw for 2800 with 21 TDs and 6 INT's. So somewhat comparable and TCU had a pretty decent defense as well and Anderson ran for 770 and 8 TD's. If Cornelius can have similar stats and we can get our defense off the field I would say 9 wins isn't a stretch. I do think that's our ceiling and would love for them to make a liar out of me.
Tcu also had the league's best defense last year, something osu will not be able to duplicate. And i dont think cornelius is as good as Hill but anything can happen i guess. I just think Sanders is your best qb and it will show when he gets on campus
 
Nov 6, 2010
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#27
Meh, saying it's a QB league or an offensive league doesn't mean much, as every year is different. I think all the league teams take a step back in offense this year. K-state is always the wildcard, if they ever manage to find a decent dual threat QB, man, they could light up the league because they are so different than everyone else now.
 

Lab Rat

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#28
I dont think you can win today's big 12 with average qb play, not unless you have super stars surrounding him (and Osu's are yet to be proven except the RB), and good defense. Part of what made Hill so dangerous was defenses having to keep honest with Rudolph's ability to punish them, so i can imagine that he will be seeing more stacked boxes this season.

List of the last 10 years of big 12 champion qbs:
Mayfield, Trevon Boykin, Bryce Petty, Landry Jones, Collin Klein, Brandon Weeden, Colt Mccoy, and Sam Bradford. The only outlier in 10 seasons is Klein, but they had a good defense that year. But in 2018, i dont think that 2012 ksu team would be nearly as successful.
What are you talking about? Collin Klein was outstanding in 2012. He was Big 12 PoY. We won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award. Klein led the Big 12 in QBR during his championship year. On the other hand, Landry Jones had the worst QBR for a Big 12 champion QB in the last 10 years and was merely 4th in the Big 12 that year. He's your outlier...
Screen Shot 2018-05-31 at 2.34.29 PM.png
 

Midnight Toker

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#29
Meh, saying it's a QB league or an offensive league doesn't mean much, as every year is different. I think all the league teams take a step back in offense this year. K-state is always the wildcard, if they ever manage to find a decent dual threat QB, man, they could light up the league because they are so different than everyone else now.
I think If you look at the qbs for the big 12 champs for say the last decade you’ll see a pattern that proves my point. So with regard to that it seems to mean very much.
 
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Midnight Toker

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#30
I dont think you can win today's big 12 with average qb play, not unless you have super stars surrounding him (and Osu's are yet to be proven except the RB), and good defense. Part of what made Hill so dangerous was defenses having to keep honest with Rudolph's ability to punish them, so i can imagine that he will be seeing more stacked boxes this season.

List of the last 10 years of big 12 champion qbs:
Mayfield, Trevon Boykin, Bryce Petty, Landry Jones, Collin Klein, Brandon Weeden, Colt Mccoy, and Sam Bradford. The only outlier in 10 seasons is Klein, but they had a good defense that year. But in 2018, i dont think that 2012 ksu team would be nearly as successful.
What are you talking about? Collin Klein was outstanding in 2012. He was Big 12 PoY. We won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm award. Klein led the Big 12 in QBR during his championship year. On the other hand, Landry Jones had the worst QBR for a Big 12 champion QB in the last 10 years and was merely 4th in the Big 12 that year. He's your outlier...
View attachment 61556
Landry Jones also happens to be one of the most prolific passers in NCAA history so there’s that.

But Klein being good that really only serves my point that great quarterback play wins you the big 12, not mediocre or average quarterbacks.
 

Lab Rat

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#31
Landry Jones also happens to be one of the most prolific passers in NCAA history so there’s that.

But Klein being good that really only serves my point that great quarterback play wins you the big 12, not mediocre or average quarterbacks.
Prolific? He threw a Big 12 record 52 career interceptions, more than Mason Rudolph and Josh Fields combined.
 

cowboyethics344

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#32
Tcu also had the league's best defense last year, something osu will not be able to duplicate. And i dont think cornelius is as good as Hill but anything can happen i guess. I just think Sanders is your best qb and it will show when he gets on campus
OSU also has dru brown who will have a shot at starting. I doubt gundy starts a freshmen
 
Jun 11, 2016
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#33
Tcu also had the league's best defense last year, something osu will not be able to duplicate. And i dont think cornelius is as good as Hill but anything can happen i guess. I just think Sanders is your best qb and it will show when he gets on campus
I never said he is as good as Hill. I'm saying if he has similar numbers (throws for 2300 or so and doesn't have a lot of INT's), we run the ball at a good clip and our defense can get off the field then we can have a chance. We don't need him to be Weeden, Mahomes or Mayfield. We need him to be Chelf. I agree our defense is a bit ambiguous every year and even more so with the new switch to 4-2-5.
 

Midnight Toker

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#34
Prolific? He threw a Big 12 record 52 career interceptions, more than Mason Rudolph and Josh Fields combined.
Yes prolific. His 123 touchdowns is top 7 all time, Rudolph is #38. . His passing yardage is #3 all time, Rudolph is #11. Before you get offended, i am not saying Jones is better than Rudolph. I am simply illustrating that he was indeed an incredibly prolific passer. Hopefully you know what prolific means.

OSU also has dru brown who will have a shot at starting. I doubt gundy starts a freshmen
You never want to if you dont have to, but i get a feeling he may have to. Brown may not be bad, but i'm not sure he would fit the mold of what most would consider a successful big 12 qb. Maybe with the Osu offense he will be a better qb, but i sill believe Sanders is the best qb you guys will have and is your best chance to win something. Gundy pulled Rudolph's rs because he had to, and he'd do it again if he had to.

I never said he is as good as Hill. I'm saying if he has similar numbers (throws for 2300 or so and doesn't have a lot of INT's), we run the ball at a good clip and our defense can get off the field then we can have a chance. We don't need him to be Weeden, Mahomes or Mayfield. We need him to be Chelf. I agree our defense is a bit ambiguous every year and even more so with the new switch to 4-2-5.
Sure, anything is possible i suppose. But again, TCU had the best D in the conference last year and that was instrumental in allowing a team with a middle of the road qb and 8th best passing team be successful and go 7-2 in conference. Osu went 6-3 with a much much better offense and way better skill players. So you're swimming upstream here, but again, i suppose anything is possible. I've seen crazier things happen than this.
 

Lab Rat

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#35
Yes prolific. His 123 touchdowns is top 7 all time, Rudolph is #38. . His passing yardage is #3 all time, Rudolph is #11. Before you get offended, i am not saying Jones is better than Rudolph. I am simply illustrating that he was indeed an incredibly prolific passer. Hopefully you know what prolific means.
I'm not offended and I know what prolific means. I was noting how prolific he was in throwing interceptions.
 

Midnight Toker

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#36
Yes prolific. His 123 touchdowns is top 7 all time, Rudolph is #38. . His passing yardage is #3 all time, Rudolph is #11. Before you get offended, i am not saying Jones is better than Rudolph. I am simply illustrating that he was indeed an incredibly prolific passer. Hopefully you know what prolific means.
I'm not offended and I know what prolific means. I was noting how prolific he was in throwing interceptions.
So was Brett Favre
 
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#39
That’s OK, Oklahoma still went 39–11 behind him. And though he was more interception prone, he was also really touchdown prone too. And believe it or not even had a better completion percentage than Rudolph.
Better by .35 %... not a huge difference there. It’s not like you’re talking about 5 or 6 percent.