The Stock Market is gonna crash!?

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jobob85

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If I had a way to mitigate my losses, I’d bet the DJIA losses 4,500 pts tomorrow.


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If the market sheds another 20% tomorrow I will be looking to sell some 90-120 day puts out of the money. No naked positions for me, only what I have the cash to cover.
Figuring on the virus to run it’s course by the strike date.
 

steross

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So for the guy that doesn't pay too close attention and puts the company match amount into a ML index, do I ride it out or pull back for a couple of months? Were only talking a few hundred dollars here if I go to 0% for say 2 months while this blows over and then I go back to my normal contribution. During a normal downturn no changes because I'm buying more shares every pay period, but something like this where it's gonna crater, am I just pissing away money near term?

I'm guessing a lot of people are asking the same thing which is not good.
I would do the opposite if you are able and investing long term. For example, just prior to the GFC, I set up a plan called dollar value averaging. With DVA, you invest enough money to raise the account value (or stock/index) by a certain dollar value each period. For example, you might want it to go up $500 each month. If the market is rising, you might only need to put in $305 that month to raise the account $500 for the month. Or if it drops back a bit, you put something like $620.

Well, the GFC comes along and some of my raise-the-account $1000 purchases were up to nearly $10000. But, I had a plan and stuck with it even though it was incredibly difficult when congressmen were talking about the possible collapse of the financial system.

It worked out extremely well for me.
 
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cowboyinexile

Have some class
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I would do the opposite if you are able and investing long term. For example, just prior to the GFC, I set up a plan called dollar value averaging. With DVA, you invest enough money to raise the account value (or stock/index) by a certain dollar value each period. For example, you might want it to go up $500 each month. If the market is rising, you might only need to put in $305 that month to raise the account $500 for the month. Or if it drops back a bit, you put something like $620.

Well, the GFC comes along and some of my raise-the-account $1000 purchases were up to nearly $10000. But, I had a plan and stuck with it even though it was incredibly difficult when congressmen were talking about the possible collapse of the financial system.

It worked out extremely well for me.
I was being stupid and reactionary last night. Again I know jack about this stuff so I'll keep my contribution the same and pretend it's not my money like I usually do.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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I would do the opposite if you are able and investing long term. For example, just prior to the GFC, I set up a plan called dollar value averaging. With DVA, you invest enough money to raise the account value (or stock/index) by a certain dollar value each period. For example, you might want it to go up $500 each month. If the market is rising, you might only need to put in $305 that month to raise the account $500 for the month. Or if it drops back a bit, you put something like $620.

Well, the GFC comes along and some of my raise-the-account $1000 purchases were up to nearly $10000. But, I had a plan and stuck with it even though it was incredibly difficult when congressmen were talking about the possible collapse of the financial system.

It worked out extremely well for me.
I was being stupid and reactionary last night. Again I know jack about this stuff so I'll keep my contribution the same and pretend it's not my money like I usually do.
Good plan


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Well

This is how I spend time.
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I was being stupid and reactionary last night. Again I know jack about this stuff so I'll keep my contribution the same and pretend it's not my money like I usually do.
I don't know jack about this stuff either. I should probably call the financial advisor I use, but I have to say, I trust you guys more. I get more information here, than I do from my so-called financial advisor.
 

John C

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If you are in the market for the long haul, it may be getting close to the time when you should start thinking about doing some buying. I’m guessing the market will fall some more, so I’m still in a waiting mode, but there may not be another buying opportunity like this again for another ten years or so.
 

bleedinorange

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If you are in the market for the long haul, it may be getting close to the time when you should start thinking about doing some buying. I’m guessing the market will fall some more, so I’m still in a waiting mode, but there may not be another buying opportunity like this again for another ten years or so.
I'm buying. I killed it a few days ago when I bought Inovio at $8+ and sold the same day for $18+. It was risky and i know not to trust baby biotec run-ups but that one worked well. There's always money to be made particularly when the crisis isn't financial.
 
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I love Dave, but I think he is dead wrong. I don't know anyone that is panicked over the virus. All the actions being taken are about containing the spread, and they have huge and real effects on the economy and will for some time to come. I mean the NBA suspending it's season, no fans at March Madness, Pearl Jam cancelled their entire tour. Those things are HUGE!!! You don't think some major American companies are going to file for bankruptcy protection over this?? And we haven't even started to see the waves of layoffs that are coming. Add in the fact we're just now starting to feel the supply chain disruption from China locking down 6 weeks ago, and the oil thing. It's a perfect storm, and this thing is going to get way worse before it gets better.
 
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2008 TARP was $300B and later got expanded by Congress to $475B. Those assets were later sold for close to break even.

They just did $1.5T in the blink of an eye straight from the Fed. Not entirely sure what is structurally different in the two right now.
 

steross

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2008 TARP was $300B and later got expanded by Congress to $475B. Those assets were later sold for close to break even.

They just did $1.5T in the blink of an eye straight from the Fed. Not entirely sure what is structurally different in the two right now.
Not the same thing.

TARP was a US Treasury program that spent taxpayer dollars to buy stocks/bonds of financial companies.

The Federal Reserve adding liquidity to the system by buying treasury bonds is not the same at all. In short, the Fed buys treasuries and deposits them at banks. Banks have more money to loan so loan more to get the economy going.
 

steross

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I'm buying. I killed it a few days ago when I bought Inovio at $8+ and sold the same day for $18+. It was risky and i know not to trust baby biotec run-ups but that one worked well. There's always money to be made particularly when the crisis isn't financial.
Of course, if you held one more day it was $5.
I'm guessing that isn't the type of buying he was talking about.
I put in an order for INO at 6.31 but at the time it was about 30 cents higher and I didn't want to chase it. Oops should have chased it.

I shorted booking.com and made some money but closed it just before the market close yesterday as it just wasn't dropping as much as I thought it would. Then the president's announcement.
Dammit Trump! :D