The Stock Market is gonna crash!?

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jakeman

Unhinged Idiot
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No profiteering here.
You’re not an investor, so I wouldn’t expect you to understand the investors viewpoint.
I’m not a gambler. I guess I don’t understand the gamblers viewpoint.


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Then maybe don’t claim moral superiority over and call people punks for doing something that you don’t understand.

That seems pretty simple to me, but I don’t call people punks and claim moral superiority over people doing things I don’t understand either.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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No profiteering here.
You’re not an investor, so I wouldn’t expect you to understand the investors viewpoint.
I’m not a gambler. I guess I don’t understand the gamblers viewpoint.


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Then maybe don’t claim moral superiority over and call people punks for doing something that you don’t understand.

That seems pretty simple to me, but I don’t call people punks and claim moral superiority over people doing things I don’t understand either.
Didn’t call people punks. Said shorting is a punk move in the current situation.


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steross

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Steross and I disagree about a lot of things, but he is not only an investor but has a LOT of knowledge about financial markets and instruments. I would personally take advice from him.

He's been on this board and the Village for years sharing his insights and I have benefitted from them.
Thanks, man. And same to you. I actually enjoy discussing that stuff more but it doesn't seem to catch on around here.
 

jobob85

Alcoholistic Sage
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The issue is shorting. Shorting is not investing. Shorting is gambling. Someone may try to suggest shorting is an investment strategy or tool. But in the end, you’re not investing in an idea, a business or a management. You’re betting on either failure, bad news, or negative market conditions. In my book, that ain’t investing.


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Your book is missing pages.
 

CTeamPoke

Legendary Cowboy
Jun 18, 2008
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Market will bounce back once COVID is under control... None of the traditional indicators pointed towards this crash, which is part of the reason it's spiraling.

Going to be an interesting 6-9 months.
 

okstate987

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Oct 17, 2009
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Market will bounce back once COVID is under control... None of the traditional indicators pointed towards this crash, which is part of the reason it's spiraling.

Going to be an interesting 6-9 months.
I disagree, it was going to be an up and down year aside from the coronavirus. Nothing like this so far, but not like last year either. Manufacturing and the corporate bonds situation was and is not good.
 

steross

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Oddly, the VIX has dropped below 30 which is a good sign in the short term. And excerpt from our management company's bulletin this morning. This has been a very, very dramatic event rarely seen, but could be a rare opportunity if you have dry powder:

"In Thursday’s session, more than 77% of stocks that traded on the NYSE hit 52-week lows.Only October 10, 2008 exceeded this figure, and just barely. Since 1965, every time more than 60% ofstocks hit 52-week lows, the S&P 500 rallied over the next 1-2 months. A year later, the S&P 500 aver- aged a return of more than 32%. Also, in one of the very few times in history, more than 95% of NYSE volume was in stocks that declined on the day and on consecutive sessions. This has only happened three other times, each coinciding with a final selling climax.
The market is so severely oversold that only 4.95% of the S&P 500 names are trading above their 200- day moving averages. According to Renaissance Macro Research, there have only been 10 clusters of these deep of oversold conditions since the S&P 500’s start in 1957, with the three-month forward returns averaging 9.1%. Finally, on the technical side, Put/Call ratios have spiked as market participants rush to hedge positions. Positioning has turned defensive, which is a net positive for the market from a contrarian perspective."
Somewhat confusing chart but the top is weekly (New Highs - New lows) with positive in gold and negative in red. This is a long term chart with the worst week during the GFC at 18K down and the current week at 12K. The black line chart at the bottom is S&P 500 to match up what happened.
IMHO, if you are putting money in for the longer term, we might not be the very bottom but we are close enough to at least start. If you are putting in for the intermediate term, probably better to wait and let some bottoming pattern occur.
1584129045605.png
 
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NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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Somewhat confusing chart but the top is weekly (New Highs - New lows) with positive in gold and negative in red. This is a long term chart with the worst week during the GFC at 18K down and the current week at 12K. The black line chart at the bottom is S&P 500 to match up what happened.
IMHO, if you are putting money in for the longer term, we might not be the very bottom but we are close enough to at least start. If you are putting in for the intermediate term, probably better to wait and let some bottoming pattern occur.
View attachment 78321
Invariably yesterday's low is bound to be tested, and then at other technical junctures on the way back up (hopefully). A lot of what I'm reading says yesterday's action looked like a legit capitulation. We'll see.
 

steross

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Invariably yesterday's low is bound to be tested, and then at other technical junctures on the way back up (hopefully). A lot of what I'm reading says yesterday's action looked like a legit capitulation. We'll see.
Yep, here is the same chart but daily values not weekly. Yesterday was -4616 and the worst day of the GFC was -5235. By any standard, that is a serious capitulation day.
1584129981519.png
 

bleedinorange

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Didn’t call people punks. Said shorting is a punk move in the current situation.


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Uh yeah, you did. Only a punk makes punk moves. It appears there are numerous individuals on this forum whose knowledge and experience in financial markets dwarfs yours. @steross is one of them.

Back to A. Lincoln; "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt". Punk (paraphrased)
 

oks10

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You guys are using a bunch of words and acronyms and I don't have a clue what they mean... I just need to you tell me where I need to put the extra money I just got from my performance bonus... ;)
 

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
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You guys are using a bunch of words and acronyms and I don't have a clue what they mean... I just need to you tell me where I need to put the extra money I just got from my performance bonus... ;)
Check out the Morningstar website for some highly rated, no-load equity mutual funds. Open a discount brokerage account and buy into one of them. TD Ameritrade is pretty good.
 

jobob85

Alcoholistic Sage
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You guys are using a bunch of words and acronyms and I don't have a clue what they mean... I just need to you tell me where I need to put the extra money I just got from my performance bonus... ;)

Check out the Morningstar website for some highly rated, no-load equity mutual funds. Open a discount brokerage account and buy into one of them. TD Ameritrade is pretty good.
Yes TD Ameritrade is a very good platform. Skip mutual funds and buy ETF’s, better deferral of taxes.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Didn’t call people punks. Said shorting is a punk move in the current situation.


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Uh yeah, you did. Only a punk makes punk moves. It appears there are numerous individuals on this forum whose knowledge and experience in financial markets dwarfs yours. @steross is one of them.

Back to A. Lincoln; "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt". Punk (paraphrased)
No, there are those that treat the market like a casino. They use trends, statistics, percentages and analysis of the market (casino games) to determine their bets.

To me, the market is where I can invest. I research a business, an industry, a company, a management to determine who and how I want somebody to put my money to work for them, and me. Not for 10 minutes, or 10 hours, or 10 days, etc.

Again, shorting is not investing.

It’s a totally different perspective.


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Sep 29, 2011
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If no cattle means 8 figure paper losses, okie dokie.


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Yea, people with money don't go around trying to humble brag on message boards saying things that even amateur investors can refute.

All hat, no cattle.
The amateur investor is the guy that thinks gambling is investing.

Btw, it was you that leveled an inaccurate accusation. I merely set the record straight.


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