The Stock Market is gonna crash!?

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Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
I guess I’m just an investor, not a gambler.


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Calling anyone that uses different techniques than you to make money in the market a gambler when that is simply not the case is just further showing a lack of market knowledge. Anyone that day trades as gambling loses. Short term trading is all about money management and discipline. No gambling at all. It is a numbers game.

Sorry the ass beating you are taking has moved your typical condescending posts into the world of whiny name-calling, but that envy is simply showing through.

Looking at charts and psychology of the participants in markets has allowed people like me to go to mostly cash and profit on the events. If you want to call me a gambler, rat, punk to make yourself feel better that's fine, your tears make it even sweeter. And, the fact that you do not even understand that a large percentage of the market these days are algorithmic trades long/short by computers making lovey/touchy feelings about the markets BS for the movies, not an intelligent concept.

But, as I understand it, you are likely in the O&G business. And, I'm just guessing based on the themes you have laid out here about not taking advantage in bad environments, that when global turmoil and war would raise oil prices I assume that you would not take advantage in that difficult environment while veterans like myself were off fighting wars for you? You wouldn't profit on the difficulties of others, right? :rolleyes:
You completely miss my point.
The whole point of social distancing is the help prevent the spread of the virus, thus mitigating both fear and danger to those that are vulnerable.
The market is really not much different. If the gamblers would just exercise some social distance (suspend their gambling) it would help mitigate both fear (in the damage to the market and economy) and danger (for those that have near-term liquidity needs) to those that are vulnerable.

I’m fine and will be fine, I’m even retired - haven’t moved a penny, but I understand the need to manage money. But the gamblers are just being selfish, especially if their investment timeline is long-term.


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steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
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Mar 31, 2004
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You completely miss my point.
The whole point of social distancing is the help prevent the spread of the virus, thus mitigating both fear and danger to those that are vulnerable.
The market is really not much different. If the gamblers would just exercise some social distance (suspend their gambling) it would help mitigate both fear (in the damage to the market and economy) and danger (for those that have near-term liquidity needs) to those that are vulnerable.

I’m fine and will be fine, I’m even retired - haven’t moved a penny, but I understand the need to manage money. But the gamblers are just being selfish, especially if their investment timeline is long-term.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Again, when we were at war, did you distance yourself from profiting (or as some would say, profiteering) on energy that tended at the time to go up during war and hurt other parts of the economy?

If not, you have some serious cognitive dissonance going on in this veteran's opinion, wealthy retired man.

And, funny, your posts whining about all of the federal programs did not seem too worried about the vulnerable.
Let them eat cake, well, unless they are a long term investor caught on the wrong side of a market, then you should give your profit to them.

You should take some of your retirement time and volunteer at a shelter or food bank. Get a sense of what real vulnerability is. I think the world you have lived in has distorted your perception of the reality that others face. It happens.

I took a year off work and did volunteer work at a low-income clinic. I used to think like you.
 

jobob85

Alcoholistic Sage
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Mar 11, 2009
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You completely miss my point.
The whole point of social distancing is the help prevent the spread of the virus, thus mitigating both fear and danger to those that are vulnerable.
The market is really not much different. If the gamblers would just exercise some social distance (suspend their gambling) it would help mitigate both fear (in the damage to the market and economy) and danger (for those that have near-term liquidity needs) to those that are vulnerable.

I’m fine and will be fine, I’m even retired - haven’t moved a penny, but I understand the need to manage money. But the gamblers are just being selfish, especially if their investment timeline is long-term.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Are you expecting everybody to ride this out? Is it more of a gamble to hold positions? Or sell and wait on the sidelines?

For the market to move you need buyers and sellers of said stocks, options have nothing to do with it. Unless there is a short squeeze, which drives the underlying stock up.

I don’t understand your thought process.
 

osupsycho

MAXIMUM EFFORT!!!
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Apr 20, 2005
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NOOOOO don't do that!
Yeah I have not looked at mine since this all started and not planning on it. Though I probably should look at my distributions for new opportunities I cannot bring myself to look at it for fear that I will just run away crying... Just have to keep in mind I am not retiring for awhile.
 
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Sep 29, 2011
982
199
593
60
Breckenridge, CO
You completely miss my point.
The whole point of social distancing is the help prevent the spread of the virus, thus mitigating both fear and danger to those that are vulnerable.
The market is really not much different. If the gamblers would just exercise some social distance (suspend their gambling) it would help mitigate both fear (in the damage to the market and economy) and danger (for those that have near-term liquidity needs) to those that are vulnerable.

I’m fine and will be fine, I’m even retired - haven’t moved a penny, but I understand the need to manage money. But the gamblers are just being selfish, especially if their investment timeline is long-term.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Again, when we were at war, did you distance yourself from profiting (or as some would say, profiteering) on energy that tended at the time to go up during war and hurt other parts of the economy?

If not, you have some serious cognitive dissonance going on in this veteran's opinion, wealthy retired man.

And, funny, your posts whining about all of the federal programs did not seem too worried about the vulnerable.
Let them eat cake, well, unless they are a long term investor caught on the wrong side of a market, then you should give your profit to them.

You should take some of your retirement time and volunteer at a shelter or food bank. Get a sense of what real vulnerability is. I think the world you have lived in has distorted your perception of the reality that others face. It happens.

I took a year off work and did volunteer work at a low-income clinic. I used to think like you.
No profiteering here.
You’re not an investor, so I wouldn’t expect you to understand the investors viewpoint.
I’m not a gambler. I guess I don’t understand the gamblers viewpoint.


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John C

Deputy
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Oct 13, 2011
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I retired in May, but I don’t bother checking on my totals. If you make it to 60 in good health, your life expectancy is somewhere in the neighborhood of another 25 years or so (too lazy to look). Relax. The market will come back. This is a golden buying opportunity for those of us who buy and hold.

As a side note, here’s to hoping the Chinese have learned a very important lesson, one which should have already been obvious to them. If you let these viruses loose from your bio-weapons labs, you run the risk of setting your own economy back ten years.
 
Oct 30, 2007
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In this environment, betting and profiting on the overall financial panic and selling is just a punk move that helps exacerbate the downward pressure.
There are two sides to that coin. Short term speculators are pushing prices lower now, but they were pushed prices higher after phase one of the trade deal was announced. I wouldn't worry too much about it. It will all even out in the long run.

“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.”
- Warren Buffett
 

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
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Mar 31, 2004
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No profiteering here.
You’re not an investor, so I wouldn’t expect you to understand the investors viewpoint.
I’m not a gambler. I guess I don’t understand the gamblers viewpoint.


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So, you never made money based on energy rise due to conflict? Right, of course you didn't.

No, I am also an investor. I am not a gambler. Even when I lived in Vegas, I was a card counter, because I am not a gambler.
The fact that I have one account that I trade shorter-term does not make me not an investor.

The fact is that you made a statement so absurd that it has been universally panned on this board and has caused you to resort to name-calling and making yourself appear to have no knowledge of ways to analyze the market other than your own.
 

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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No profiteering here.
You’re not an investor, so I wouldn’t expect you to understand the investors viewpoint.
I’m not a gambler. I guess I don’t understand the gamblers viewpoint.


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Steross and I disagree about a lot of things, but he is not only an investor but has a LOT of knowledge about financial markets and instruments. I would personally take advice from him.

He's been on this board and the Village for years sharing his insights and I have benefitted from them.
 

jakeman

Unhinged Idiot
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Apr 4, 2005
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Are you expecting everybody to ride this out? Is it more of a gamble to hold positions? Or sell and wait on the sidelines?

For the market to move you need buyers and sellers of said stocks, options have nothing to do with it. Unless there is a short squeeze, which drives the underlying stock up.

I don’t understand your thought process.
It’s moral superiority.
 
Sep 29, 2011
982
199
593
60
Breckenridge, CO
No profiteering here.
You’re not an investor, so I wouldn’t expect you to understand the investors viewpoint.
I’m not a gambler. I guess I don’t understand the gamblers viewpoint.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Steross and I disagree about a lot of things, but he is not only an investor but has a LOT of knowledge about financial markets and instruments. I would personally take advice from him.

He's been on this board and the Village for years sharing his insights and I have benefitted from them.
The issue is shorting. Shorting is not investing. Shorting is gambling. Someone may try to suggest shorting is an investment strategy or tool. But in the end, you’re not investing in an idea, a business or a management. You’re betting on either failure, bad news, or negative market conditions. In my book, that ain’t investing.


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NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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Gondor
Oddly, the VIX has dropped below 30 which is a good sign in the short term. And excerpt from our management company's bulletin this morning. This has been a very, very dramatic event rarely seen, but could be a rare opportunity if you have dry powder:

"In Thursday’s session, more than 77% of stocks that traded on the NYSE hit 52-week lows.Only October 10, 2008 exceeded this figure, and just barely. Since 1965, every time more than 60% ofstocks hit 52-week lows, the S&P 500 rallied over the next 1-2 months. A year later, the S&P 500 aver- aged a return of more than 32%. Also, in one of the very few times in history, more than 95% of NYSE volume was in stocks that declined on the day and on consecutive sessions. This has only happened three other times, each coinciding with a final selling climax.
The market is so severely oversold that only 4.95% of the S&P 500 names are trading above their 200- day moving averages. According to Renaissance Macro Research, there have only been 10 clusters of these deep of oversold conditions since the S&P 500’s start in 1957, with the three-month forward returns averaging 9.1%. Finally, on the technical side, Put/Call ratios have spiked as market participants rush to hedge positions. Positioning has turned defensive, which is a net positive for the market from a contrarian perspective."