The Stock Market is gonna crash!?

  • You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
A/V Subscriber
Mar 31, 2004
27,985
32,655
1,743
oklahoma city
#1
When I started coming on this board years ago, many of the posters discussed investments, as well as politics, and the intertwine between them. That is all but gone which is very unfortunate in my opinion.

For those with an interest, I think this is a good video to look at that gives a perspective on the long term prospects of the market.
It is 30 min long but the author is somewhat repetitive so I watched on 1.75 speed and it was fine.

 
Oct 12, 2019
429
86
28
29
Dustin,ok
#2
Didn‘t the Stock market crash begin when our Prez got elected and continued steadily until today. That’s what all the brilliant MSM told us would happen and AT&T/CNN and others surely could not be wrong.
 

CTeamPoke

Legendary Cowboy
Jun 18, 2008
44,867
47,383
1,743
Dallas, TX
#3
When I started coming on this board years ago, many of the posters discussed investments, as well as politics, and the intertwine between them. That is all but gone which is very unfortunate in my opinion.

For those with an interest, I think this is a good video to look at that gives a perspective on the long term prospects of the market.
It is 30 min long but the author is somewhat repetitive so I watched on 1.75 speed and it was fine.

Ehhh the Fed basically bet on this not happening when they held the current interest rate. If Trump gets reelected, there likely won't be a crash. The corporate tax cuts and low unemployment are also buffers against this.

I'm pretty not for cutting corporate taxes... And long term the cuts and continued deregulation will end up biting us, but in the near term (5 years) the prospects are good.

In all there is no safer bet than the US Stock Market... So always remember to just let your money ride in it if you can. If you're living off of it, 2020 might be a good year to go conservative with your investments... Which is true in most election years, IMO.
 

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
A/V Subscriber
Mar 31, 2004
27,985
32,655
1,743
oklahoma city
#4
Maybe it would be helpful if at the start of comments everyone said if they actually clicked on the video or if they are making general comments on the subject but did not click the video.
 

Boomer.....

Territorial Marshal
Feb 15, 2007
6,673
5,964
1,743
OKC
#5
Of course it’s going to crash. There’s a crash on average every 8-10 years or so and we’re overdue. In fact, I think I read that we are currently in the longest stretch without a market recession/depression. The feds keep pumping money to keep us afloat, but it’ll eventually topple.

The thing is unless you are nearing retirement, just ignore the noise and ride the waves.
 
Sep 29, 2011
806
162
593
60
Breckenridge, CO
#6
The Market will crash
The Market will recover
There are always good investments available
There are always bad investments available

The price of a stock only matters twice, when you buy, and when you sell (except on rare occasions for those that utilize a margin account near its limit)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
A/V Subscriber
Mar 31, 2004
27,985
32,655
1,743
oklahoma city
#7
Of course it’s going to crash. There’s a crash on average every 8-10 years or so and we’re overdue. In fact, I think I read that we are currently in the longest stretch without a market recession/depression. The feds keep pumping money to keep us afloat, but it’ll eventually topple.

The thing is unless you are nearing retirement, just ignore the noise and ride the waves.
Did you watch the video?
 
Oct 30, 2007
3,751
3,253
1,743
#8
U.S.equities are tied closely to the economic cycle. They climb steadily during the expansion period of the cycle, and drop 25-50% on average during the recession period of the cycle. The question isn't whether or not the stock market will crash again. We know it will happen. The question is when will the next worldwide recession hit, and how much fear will there be when it happens.

The video mentions that unemployment rate can be a predictor of a stock market crash. That's true, but it's really just a reflection of the economic cycle. Unemployment rates drop steadily during the expansion period and spike during the recession period.

The main disagreement I have with the video is the way they view the time period following the dotcom bubble. I don't really consider this to be a secular consolidation period that could be predicted by historical analysis. The dotcom bubble was created by an overvaluation of tech stocks. The Nasdaq & the S&P 500 took a long time to set new all time highs due to the fact that they have significant exposure to these stocks, but the Dow set new all time highs as early as 2006. I very much believe that we would've continued the upward trend if it weren't for the levels of fear we saw with the financial crisis.

There's no doubt that political influence has had a significant affect on the stock market over the past decade. Low interest rates lead to higher leverage. That's one of the main reasons why the stock market performed so well under Obama. From the 2008 election to the 2016 election, interest rates were only raised once. Obama had an effective interest rate of zero for 7 of his 8 years as president. Interest rates were increased too fast after Trump won the election. This combined with the trade war blunted the momentum over the past 2 years. We're back to an upward trajectory now that rates have been lowered and trade tensions have eased.

Things could get crazy if Bernie Sanders wins the election and Democrats take the Senate. I don't see it happening, but it will likely cause a recession and a significant bear market if it does.
 
Last edited:

llcoolw

Territorial Marshal
Feb 7, 2005
6,527
3,424
1,743
Sammamish, Washington.Dallas, Texas.Maui, Hawaii
#9
No. Not yet. Will tonight. That being said... we had great employment numbers Friday. Followed by Gallup poll showing 90% Americans are happy with the direction of the economy. Followed by huge increase in private payrolls. Then the DOW opened and lost 200 points. Coronavirus fears and China work stoppage are going to come home and it won’t be pretty. If the Chinese are lying(and it looks like they are) then we could be in for a huge beating. Like mentioned earlier, unless you need that cash or are retiring soon, ride it out. There were be deals too good to pass up. Personally, it looks bad, real bad. Could be the perfect storm and could come close to the Great Recession because we just don’t know the truth. That scares money and nothing is worse than scared money.
 

PokeJ

Sheriff
Oct 27, 2003
4,564
2,694
1,743
62
McKinney, TX
Visit site
#10
Buy low sell high. In the long run we’ll be ok. I’m 62. I have lived through several recessions. Double digit inflation. Just stay the course and don’t panic. Panic is what kills you.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Apr 14, 2009
171
34
1,578
#11
I remember when a republican President ask for price controls on oil and gas and airline tickets and many other goods and services. And he got what he requested. Most young folks think I am joshing them when I tell them this fact.
 
Last edited:

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
A/V Subscriber
Mar 31, 2004
27,985
32,655
1,743
oklahoma city
#13
Watched it. I think a Bernie win in November may change his analytics.
Yes, I've watch a few videos by this guy and he repeats often than this is not a prediction but his assessment based on current data which will always potentially change when new data comes.

It just seems that everyone is expecting another big crash sometime soon and this video makes the point that historically that may not be as inevitable as it seems.

Going by this graph of cash sitting in and being moved to money market funds, it would appear there are plenty of people waiting for a better time to invest. It certainly isn't there because of the awesome interest paid.

Screen Shot 2020-02-09 at 2.14.21 PM.png
 

jobob85

Alcoholistic Sage
A/V Subscriber
Mar 11, 2009
22,364
27,070
1,743
#14
Yes, I've watch a few videos by this guy and he repeats often than this is not a prediction but his assessment based on current data which will always potentially change when new data comes.

It just seems that everyone is expecting another big crash sometime soon and this video makes the point that historically that may not be as inevitable as it seems.

Going by this graph of cash sitting in and being moved to money market funds, it would appear there are plenty of people waiting for a better time to invest. It certainly isn't there because of the awesome interest paid.

View attachment 77450
He seems to have identified a certain consolidation period and breakout. If his chart proves accurate we have another 8 or so years of good stock market growth.

Having some rough idea about market downturns can be very beneficial in maintaining wealth.
 
Last edited:

pokes16

Territorial Marshal
Oct 16, 2003
7,535
6,951
1,743
Tulsa
#15
He seems to have identified a certain consolation period and breakout. If his chart proves accurate we have another 8 or so years of good stock market growth.

Having some rough idea about market downturns can be very beneficial in maintaining wealth.
Sell when SPX closes the week under the 200 dma. Buy back when it closes back above it to end the week.
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
A/V Subscriber
Feb 16, 2011
12,267
16,525
743
dark sarcasm in the classroom
#16
Market indicators are always right, until they’re not. IMO prior indicators are a poor indicator in today’s environment. Most analysts will tell you indicators / historical based models are corollary. There’s some excellent research in the presentation, going past the video and reading some reviews it appears most have a high regard for the presenter and like all advisors you’re going to cherry pick time frames and results to support your supposition(s).
My $.02. We’ve never been in a more volatile equity environment and that’s due to several reasons, more Americans are invested, market access has never been easier, professional investors prey on the emotions of individuals as a result patient investing is a relic for most. Trying to compare past markets to now is futile because they are not the same markets. This is the first time in history that a potus has had this level of impact on the economy through action not hype. Typically a potus impact isn’t seen through actual results until either at the end of their term or after they’ve left office and their historical success is judged after other competing actions have taken place. It remains to be seen how Trumps policies play long term but we’ll only be able to judge if they’re left in place.
I’m always amused when I see motley fool or others say if you had invested in x you’d have y. No sh&t, now tell me who x is and you’ve got something but that’s not how it works.
Two ways to make money pick long term stocks (buy your shopping cart for l-t) dividends are your friend, and ride out the valleys, the valleys are orders of magnitude higher than the peaks of the past, or you educate yourself on how the market really moves, commit yourself to real time involvement and park yourself in front of multiple monitors be ready to measure by what you gained and not worry about what you left on the plate, iow, forget emotion, then go at it.

added: If you commit to the market, you can make as much maybe more just due to human nature in a down market as you can a bull market, if I were going to try to guess, the sell is where I’d be looking.
 
Last edited:
Sep 29, 2011
806
162
593
60
Breckenridge, CO
#17
I remember when a republican President ask for price controls on oil and gas and airline tickets and many other goods and services. And he got what he requested. Most young folks think I am joshing them when I tell them this fact.
What’s your point? That Republicans can at times approach the level of stupidity exhibited daily by Dems?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
A/V Subscriber
Feb 16, 2011
12,267
16,525
743
dark sarcasm in the classroom
#18
I remember when a republican President ask for price controls on oil and gas and airline tickets and many other goods and services. And he got what he requested. Most young folks think I am joshing them when I tell them this fact.
I remember when the guy that followed him drove interest rates for home mortgages to over 20%. Yep, those were good times
 
Apr 14, 2009
171
34
1,578
#19
And he asked his republican Treasury secretary Paul Volker how to Stop the cycle of double digit inflation. His answer was raise interest rates. Surprise! It worked.
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
A/V Subscriber
Feb 16, 2011
12,267
16,525
743
dark sarcasm in the classroom
#20
And he asked his republican Treasury secretary Paul Volker how to Stop the cycle of double digit inflation. His answer was raise interest rates. Surprise! It worked.
No it didn’t work the economy came to a screeching halt as an oldschooler, you should remember that. There’s quite a number of older liberals who support moving off gold and implementing price controls as a means of ensuring equality.
Then I also remember that guy’s successor deregulated several industries and the economy kicked into gear, funny how that works.
Regardless of which party uses the fed to artificially manipulate the economy, it fails, regardless of which party loosens regulatory constraints and allows the economy to find its own ceiling and floor, it works. I’ll bow out now, I’m pretty sure this ain’t the direction steross was looking for.