The Market Thread

  • You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.
Oct 7, 2008
1,399
333
1,713
5 years from now the Diesel Semi truck may ceased to be even built. In 3 years, NKLA will be producing 35,000 Hydrogen Electric Semis per year, not to mention 10s of thousands of their smaller all electic Semis. That does not count what TSLA will do and Daimler.
But the world is also big, slow, and stubborn. I wrote a paper on hydrogen fuel in high school in 2002. We both agree on where we're headed. Just not on the time frame.
 
Oct 7, 2008
1,399
333
1,713
Yea, I'm starting to think oil will never come back, but I think it has at least as much to do with the new work from anywhere environment as EV's. EV's are clearly the future, but it will take years to unwind from the current system. But work from home takes cars off the road today. Too bad I own a bunch of Exxon.
I work in California in what's supposed to be a pretty progressive industry. It's still led by dinosaurs who want to see you at your desk every day so they know you're working. Companies are going to be slow to adapt to the work from home trend, and from what I've seen most are going to want people back in the office as soon as they can. It also seems like about 1/2 of people prefer working from an office.
 

pokes16

Territorial Marshal
Oct 16, 2003
7,158
6,371
1,743
Tulsa
But the world is also big, slow, and stubborn. I wrote a paper on hydrogen fuel in high school in 2002. We both agree on where we're headed. Just not on the time frame.
NKLA already has a H2 fueling station and they are testing their H2 semi now. Budweiser has already ordered 800 of them. Bud will have the first trucks in their hands in about a year and start drviing them to tell NKLA what changes they want to see made before full production starts.
 

pokes16

Territorial Marshal
Oct 16, 2003
7,158
6,371
1,743
Tulsa
I work in California in what's supposed to be a pretty progressive industry. It's still led by dinosaurs who want to see you at your desk every day so they know you're working. Companies are going to be slow to adapt to the work from home trend, and from what I've seen most are going to want people back in the office as soon as they can. It also seems like about 1/2 of people prefer working from an office.
Mutual fund familes are already figuring out how much money they are saving by having thier reps work from home 1 rep per month went from 6,000 in expenses per month to 400. Now multiply that by the sales team. Work from home will be a huge change out of this. Hence the move in all software stocks and LVGO/TDOC etc
 
Oct 7, 2008
1,399
333
1,713
NKLA already has a H2 fueling station and they are testing their H2 semi now. Budweiser has already ordered 800 of them. Bud will have the first trucks in their hands in about a year and start drviing them to tell NKLA what changes they want to see made before full production starts.
So you're telling me I should be listening to 18-yr old me and not 35-yr old me? (totally a lighthearted joke making sure it comes off that way)
 

pokes16

Territorial Marshal
Oct 16, 2003
7,158
6,371
1,743
Tulsa
So you're telling me I should be listening to 18-yr old me and not 35-yr old me? (totally a lighthearted joke making sure it comes off that way)
LOL! No I am saying dig into the story and do your DD. Come to your conclusion and invest accordingly. I am simply putting info out there that is readily available. But this GM/NKLA deal is... well reach your own conclusions! ;)
 
Nov 6, 2010
1,819
639
1,743
I work in California in what's supposed to be a pretty progressive industry. It's still led by dinosaurs who want to see you at your desk every day so they know you're working. Companies are going to be slow to adapt to the work from home trend, and from what I've seen most are going to want people back in the office as soon as they can. It also seems like about 1/2 of people prefer working from an office.
Yea, but when it comes time for those dinosaurs to renew their office leases and realize that they can drop that little expense, or at least drastically reduce it, I think they'll get over that and learn how to manage them remotely. I think it will also become a benefit comparable to health insurance or 401k match. Now that everyone has had a taste of it, workers will demand it and it will become a part of competing for top talent just like other benefits. And while I agree with you that some workers will still want or need an office environment, I don't think it will be a 5-day a week deal. People will start going into the office 1 or 2 days a week.
 
Nov 6, 2010
1,819
639
1,743
LOL! No I am saying dig into the story and do your DD. Come to your conclusion and invest accordingly. I am simply putting info out there that is readily available. But this GM/NKLA deal is... well reach your own conclusions! ;)
What do you think of the Ford/Rivian deal?
 

oks10

Territorial Marshal
A/V Subscriber
Sep 9, 2007
8,388
6,082
1,743
Piedmont, OK
Yea, I'm starting to think oil will never come back, but I think it has at least as much to do with the new work from anywhere environment as EV's. EV's are clearly the future, but it will take years to unwind from the current system. But work from home takes cars off the road today. Too bad I own a bunch of Exxon.
Given that Schlumberger just sold their fracking group and also partnered up with a geothermal company, I'm going to have to agree with you. (I know SLB isn't DIRECTLY "oil" but they're still a huge player in the game.)
 
Last edited:
Nov 6, 2010
1,819
639
1,743
Given that Schlumberger just sold their fracking group and also partnered up with a geothermal company, I'm going to have to agree with you.
That kind of stuff is probably the only hope for a short term rebound. If some producers start ramping down and take a bunch of supply out of the market a little prematurely, I could see a bump in oil prices.
 
Sep 29, 2011
1,555
353
713
60
Breckenridge, CO
I'd be curious to hear @GumbyFromPokeyLand 's take on the future of oil prices.
Absent a significant event or forecast impacting demand, I'd guess the price will meander between $35 and $45/bbl in the near future. Change in demand aside, beyond 6-12 months, it will likely require an actual natural decline in production greater than increases from new drilling (limited in this price environment) in order to prompt higher prices.

I say all that with the full knowledge every medium to long range price forecast in the history of mankind has been wrong.
 

oks10

Territorial Marshal
A/V Subscriber
Sep 9, 2007
8,388
6,082
1,743
Piedmont, OK
APPS, QCOM, DDOG, AXSM, TDOC, WKHS,
I've got a couple shares of WKHS and it's doing alright. Had a little dip today but seems to just be hovering.

I'm still really pleased with wherever the hell I saw to invest in VSLR back last November. I'm at a total return of +275% on that one and really kicking myself for not buying more at first... :D I'd put more money in it but I just can't get past thinking it can't go much higher.