The Market Thread

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pokes16

Territorial Marshal
Oct 16, 2003
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I started my own help Rx with his little problem thread complete with a greatpic of Jessica rabbit. Thought it would help a brother out and not have him needing to go to all the other threads for assistance. Evidently the Mod nazis didn't like ease and convenience.
 

Boomer.....

Territorial Marshal
Feb 15, 2007
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ETF in a taxable account. Use tech, real estate, and health sectors for a extra pop from the portfolio anchor investments.

Good advice from a sloppy drunk.
I’m even more boring. I only have a mid cap EFT in my IRA. 80/20 in my 401K with near 0 ER and letting it ride for a few decades.
 

steross

Bookface/Instagran legend
A/V Subscriber
Mar 31, 2004
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Yep and I'm about to sell all my shares and go to safety.
I know you personally aren't doing this, but just for fair warning I just post charts that I find interesting. Please don't base investment decisions on charts I post on any particular day as tomorrow I might post something that leans completely the other way.

Really, from a general market standpoint, the only decision to be made right now is can the Fed and the massive tech high flyers continue to overwhelm the faults of the underlying economy. On one hand, the economic data is dismal. On the other, people have cash and have to put it somewhere and US equities are the only game in town with a payoff right now. I just don't have that answer.
 

Boomer.....

Territorial Marshal
Feb 15, 2007
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Experts have been screaming about the upcoming recession for many years now and the market has only gone up and up. During the pandemic many people pulled out of the market, for good reason, only to see one of the largest rallies in history and lost their ass. Of course this rally was largely due to the feds pumping in trillions into the economy to keep it afloat. I know we are on a huge bubble and the stock market is living in lala land, but the more you try to predict the outcome of the market, the more likely you are to lose money in the long run. You'll never be able to time the peak to exit and the bottom to reenter. You don't lose money unless you sell.
 
Sep 6, 2012
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Edmond
I know you personally aren't doing this, but just for fair warning I just post charts that I find interesting. Please don't base investment decisions on charts I post on any particular day as tomorrow I might post something that leans completely the other way.

Really, from a general market standpoint, the only decision to be made right now is can the Fed and the massive tech high flyers continue to overwhelm the faults of the underlying economy. On one hand, the economic data is dismal. On the other, people have cash and have to put it somewhere and US equities are the only game in town with a payoff right now. I just don't have that answer.
I am not going off of graphs , No. I can tell you what I know. I know that the if the D's get Biden in office, your 401k and investments will take a tumble. A big one! There will be zero economic trust in a biden admin. The govt is already be held up by the house. If they have the presidency and the house. Nancy Pelosi will be walking with the left wingers even more. I have little confidence .
 
Sep 6, 2012
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Edmond
The safest place to be is Government Bonds, and then there are some alternative investments that attempt to do well even in bad markets.



However, I would caution you in pulling everything out. The worst mistakes people make is they get out, and miss out on the upside and then it is very hard to get back in the market at the right time. I’ve just seen too many times where people predict a recession or market crash that never happens, or they don’t get back in at or near a low because “it just doesn’t feel right.” Remember, the market dropped this year and then started to recover March 23, not when things were getting better but rather when we were just in the beginning of lock down.



Travel stocks, energy stocks a few others are already down 50%, so already pricing in a recession, what’s not priced in is mass bankruptcies. Growth stocks like technology are pricing that there is a fundamental change in how our economy works. So, you’re saying is people will stop on-line shopping (Amazon), stop buying cell phones (Apple), and stop using zoom, working from home, etc. Not to mention the amount of money the government is pouring into the economy.



Ameriprise has a price target on the S&P at 3050, which is roughly 7% lower. I think a better approach is to reduce the amount of stocks in the portfolio rather than get out completely.

This was from my FA , when I told him to move it to safety..
 
Last edited:
Oct 7, 2008
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I know you personally aren't doing this, but just for fair warning I just post charts that I find interesting. Please don't base investment decisions on charts I post on any particular day as tomorrow I might post something that leans completely the other way.

Really, from a general market standpoint, the only decision to be made right now is can the Fed and the massive tech high flyers continue to overwhelm the faults of the underlying economy. On one hand, the economic data is dismal. On the other, people have cash and have to put it somewhere and US equities are the only game in town with a payoff right now. I just don't have that answer.
The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 85% of the stock market, and they haven't lost money during the pandemic. I'm not sure how detached it can actually be from the economy, but it seems more and more lately the stock market is just an indicator of what do rich people feel like doing with their money today.