The Market Thread

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bleedinorange

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Jan 11, 2010
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Yeah, cause having a $6 trillion deficit this year won't bite us in the ass later on.
Yeah, like the 10 trillion Zero heaped on the US taxpayer without a pandemic. Obamacare, Obama phones, millions in increased food stamps etc, etc, etc.. But that's ok, it was all out of compassion. (and buying votes, and increasing dependency)
 

okstate987

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Yeah, like the 10 trillion Zero heaped on the US taxpayer without a pandemic. Obamacare, Obama phones, millions in increased food stamps etc, etc, etc.. But that's ok, it was all out of compassion. (and buying votes, and increasing dependency)
That was and is horrible, no denying that. But to bring it up when your man Trump has managed to blow that figure out out of the water on an annual basis after campaigning on fiscal restraint, is more than a bit disingenuous.
 

bleedinorange

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That was and is horrible, no denying that. But to bring it up when your man Trump has managed to blow that figure out out of the water on an annual basis after campaigning on fiscal restraint, is more than a bit disingenuous.
Welp, there you go again. I didn't vote for Trump. I just look at some of your drivel and shake my head that you think the AOC's of the world (your party) with their asinine demands to hand out free stuff won't dwarf anything and everything Trump has done. Plus, I'm sure Peolsi and Schumer (your party) could have done all they portend to do in the face of a world pandemic without busting the budget. All of the stimulus packages have been bipartisan with the dems demanding moar for the loony left base. <eyerollmodeon>
 

oldguy

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Sep 12, 2008
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Welp, there you go again. I didn't vote for Trump. I just look at some of your drivel and shake my head that you think the AOC's of the world (your party) with their asinine demands to hand out free stuff won't dwarf anything and everything Trump has done. Plus, I'm sure Peolsi and Schumer (your party) could have done all they portend to do in the face of a world pandemic without busting the budget. All of the stimulus packages have been bipartisan with the dems demanding moar for the loony left base. <eyerollmodeon>
Pelosi says the next relief package will be 1.3 Trillion and its not enough..

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/coronavirus-stimulus-nancy-pelosi-discusses-next-relief-bill.html
 

okstate987

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Welp, there you go again. I didn't vote for Trump. I just look at some of your drivel and shake my head that you think the AOC's of the world (your party) with their asinine demands to hand out free stuff won't dwarf anything and everything Trump has done. Plus, I'm sure Peolsi and Schumer (your party) could have done all they portend to do in the face of a world pandemic without busting the budget. <eyerollmodeon>
Your straw mans are so predictable.

Step 1) I mention some current event that is going on.
Step 2) You mention Obama and get the whatabout train rolling.
Step 3) I illustrate that Trump is actually worse on that given issue and that it is odd that you keep coming to Trump's defense on something that he has shown to suck at.
Step 4) You proceed to beat down the straw man that I am some sort of big government democrat, listing several of my least favorite politicians on the hill.

Have you ever thought about writing a guide on how to argue from bad faith? Got some real talent there.
 

bleedinorange

Federal Marshal
Jan 11, 2010
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Your straw mans are so predictable.

Step 1) I mention some current event that is going on.
Step 2) You mention Obama and get the whatabout train rolling.
Step 3) I illustrate that Trump is actually worse on that given issue and that it is odd that you keep coming to Trump's defense on something that he has shown to suck at.
Step 4) You proceed to beat down the straw man that I am some sort of big government democrat, listing several of my least favorite politicians on the hill.

Have you ever thought about writing a guide on how to argue from bad faith? Got some real talent there.
That's such bullshit. I didn't defend Trump or condemn him. Your point was obvious (or should be) that someone other than he would be more financially capable during the pandemic . After him, there's only dems. Duh.
 
Oct 30, 2007
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Biden could be different because he's already said that he wants to increase corporate taxes and tax capital gains as normal income. He also said that he's open to the idea of a financial transaction tax that could change markets significantly.

We'll probably be fine if Republicans retain the Senate, but a Democratic sweep could upset the apple cart.
 

StillwaterTownie

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Jun 18, 2010
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Biden could be different because he's already said that he wants to increase corporate taxes and tax capital gains as normal income. He also said that he's open to the idea of a financial transaction tax that could change markets significantly.

We'll probably be fine if Republicans retain the Senate, but a Democratic sweep could upset the apple cart.
I wouldn't care for increased corporate income taxes, since they can just pass them on to their customers. The majority of them already have a good deal as it is now, since as much as 2/3rds don't pay income taxes. Makes far better sense to raise income taxes on individual millionaires.
 

steross

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Biden could be different because he's already said that he wants to increase corporate taxes and tax capital gains as normal income. He also said that he's open to the idea of a financial transaction tax that could change markets significantly.

We'll probably be fine if Republicans retain the Senate, but a Democratic sweep could upset the apple cart.
And those things are always what dems say while running. If the dems were putting up and ultralib I might be worried. But, I can’t see Biden totally pissing off his big $$$ benefactors and killing markets.

The truth is that we have a huge bull market fed by Fed money more that business climate for a long time. What happens with the Fed is going to have a far bigger effect than the president. And, I don’t know how and I don’t know when, but this massive perturbation of market economics being put on by our government and central bank is gonna end badly.

 
Oct 30, 2007
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And those things are always what dems say while running. If the dems were putting up and ultralib I might be worried. But, I can’t see Biden totally pissing off his big $$$ benefactors and killing markets.

The truth is that we have a huge bull market fed by Fed money more that business climate for a long time. What happens with the Fed is going to have a far bigger effect than the president. And, I don’t know how and I don’t know when, but this massive perturbation of market economics being put on by our government and central bank is gonna end badly.
I don't think that Biden would kill the stock market either, but I definitely think that he would blunt its momentum. Goldman Sachs said that his corporate tax increase would lead to 12% less earnings per share. Increased regulations and the prospects of a less market friendly Fed Chairman are also a worry. I've seen some predictions that the stock market could end up pulling back as much as 25% with a Democrat sweep in November.

I don't think we'll see a stock market crash if Democrats sweep, but I think there's a good chance that it will underperform it's average over the next 4 years if that happens.
 

steross

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I don't think we'll see a stock market crash if Democrats sweep, but I think there's a good chance that it will underperform it's average over the next 4 years if that happens.
Historically:
1. Republican presidential outperformance in the stock market occurs in the first two years and is erased in the second two.
2. Predictions by financial firms of longer term market performance are about as accurate as any of our guesses.
 
Oct 30, 2007
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Historically:
1. Republican presidential outperformance in the stock market occurs in the first two years and is erased in the second two.
2. Predictions by financial firms of longer term market performance are about as accurate as any of our guesses.
Republicans have been really unlucky from this aspect. Every single Republican president since Reagan has suffered a recession during their presidency. That's really skewed presidential stock market performance statistics.

No one knows for sure what will happen. As crazy as it sounds, Biden winning the presidency may produce the best results as long as Republicans hold the Senate. He wouldn't be able to raise taxes and he's a lot less likely to restart the trade war with China. I can't see the stock market responding well to increased taxes & regulations though.
 
Nov 6, 2010
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That's such bullshit. I didn't defend Trump or condemn him. Your point was obvious (or should be) that someone other than he would be more financially capable during the pandemic . After him, there's only dems. Duh.
And who's fault is that?? I bet Marco Rubio or any number of the primary challengers that fell by the wayside would be WAY better fiscally, particularly when inheriting the economic calm of 2016.
 

bleedinorange

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And who's fault is that?? I bet Marco Rubio or any number of the primary challengers that fell by the wayside would be WAY better fiscally, particularly when inheriting the economic calm of 2016.
Better check the GDP numbers from Zero's tenure compared to Orangeman's 3yrs pre-covid. I'm substantially better off now than I was before the drop. Don't know why you're not. I'm betting Marco is as well. The market only fell to Obama's highs so.......