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jobob85

Alcoholistic Sage
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Earnings include non-cash revenues.
When evaluating a stock I want to remove from the analysis items that make different companies and industries not comparable. The single biggest item that can make companies not comparable is non-cash expenses. Thus, EV:Ebitda and OCF trading multiples are my starting point.


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Yes, earnings have non cash revenues, therefore you have to +/- the change in non cash revenues to get operating cash flow. I don’t mean to get stuck on this point, it’s just my field and I may be over analyzing things. It probably doesn’t matter in the long run as long as it works for you.

You can give a good CPA/Analyst a set of books and the can give you three sets of financial.
One for the bank
One for the IRS
One for the BOD - this one is adjustable but, starts out as close to square as possible
 

bleedinorange

Federal Marshal
Jan 11, 2010
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In Pokey's head
Yeah, gamblers gamble, investors invest.


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Those who can, do. Those who can't, talk. Would have been interested to see the results of your methodology in stock selection (and results) put in place as openly as a few of mine were during this time.

Here's a news flash for you, all legitimate stock purchases are a toss of the dice or "gambling" if you like. Having a hand full of info and research etc guarantees nothing. It only mitigates potential losses. I've seen and heard dozens of smart, educated, experienced professionals bust their asses (and their clients) on errant buys all made within the conventional accepted methods. Yours are no better or no worse.
 
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Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
Yeah, gamblers gamble, investors invest.


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Those who can, do. Those who can't, talk. Would have been interested to see the results of your methodology in stock selection (and results) put in place as openly as a few of mine were during this time.

Here's a news flash for you, all legitimate stock purchases are a toss of the dice or "gambling" if you like. Having a hand full of info and research etc guarantees nothing. It only mitigates potential losses. I've seen and heard dozens of smart, educated, experienced professionals bust their asses (and their clients) on errant buys all made within the conventional accepted methods. Yours are no better or no worse.
The way I pick stocks has everything to do with understanding how the market valuation squares up or doesn’t square up with performance - historic and prospective. It’s how true investors think. In my career in M&A, 100% of my analyses, 100% of my Board’s requirements, 100% of my consulting investment bankers analyses and 100% of the target companies executives, board members and investment bankers utilize the same tools and methods. Every analysis starts with an acquisition price (stock price) and ends with a view on expected cash flows. When companies are looking to invest (by acquiring stock) millions and billions of $$$ all perform the same type of analysis, it kinda tells you what’s relevant and important. The goal is to invest in the target, their business, their assets and in some cases, their management. I’ve participated in, or attended, hundreds of Wall Street analyst meetings, investor meetings and investor presentations in my career. The type of stock valuations and performance assessments mentioned in my posts are standard in every case.

For a person investing only his own money, the approach is really no different. When is a company undervalued in the market (buy opportunity), when is a company fully valued (buy, hold or sell), and when is a company overvalued (sell). That’s investing. Yeah, there are risks - company/asset/industry performance risks. So the task as an investor is to align your investing risk with the underlying business risk.

Your approach (it appears) is to play the market. Apparently trying to assess the timing of a good entry point, and a good exit point by analyzing market trends and trading behavior without much apparent regard for underlying performance. That’s the strategy of a stock trader, not a stock investor. That’s gambling. Yeah, there are risks that can be mitigated by understanding the (gambling) game. But at the end of the day you’re not buying a stock because you believe in the business and efficiency of the market to reflect value, you’re buying a stock because you think you can make a profitable trade.

Which way is better? I don’t know. But I’d guess more fortunes were amassed by true investors than stock traders. Just my opinion.

FWIW, I’ve never met a Board member that was a stock trader. I’ve met many Board members that were investors.


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bleedinorange

Federal Marshal
Jan 11, 2010
17,741
32,267
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In Pokey's head
The way I pick stocks has everything to do with understanding how the market valuation squares up or doesn’t square up with performance - historic and prospective. It’s how true investors think. In my career in M&A, 100% of my analyses, 100% of my Board’s requirements, 100% of my consulting investment bankers analyses and 100% of the target companies executives, board members and investment bankers utilize the same tools and methods. Every analysis starts with an acquisition price (stock price) and ends with a view on expected cash flows. When companies are looking to invest (by acquiring stock) millions and billions of $$$ all perform the same type of analysis, it kinda tells you what’s relevant and important. The goal is to invest in the target, their business, their assets and in some cases, their management. I’ve participated in, or attended, hundreds of Wall Street analyst meetings, investor meetings and investor presentations in my career. The type of stock valuations and performance assessments mentioned in my posts are standard in every case.

For a person investing only his own money, the approach is really no different. When is a company undervalued in the market (buy opportunity), when is a company fully valued (buy, hold or sell), and when is a company overvalued (sell). That’s investing. Yeah, there are risks - company/asset/industry performance risks. So the task as an investor is to align your investing risk with the underlying business risk.

Your approach (it appears) is to play the market. Apparently trying to assess the timing of a good entry point, and a good exit point by analyzing market trends and trading behavior without much apparent regard for underlying performance. That’s the strategy of a stock trader, not a stock investor. That’s gambling. Yeah, there are risks that can be mitigated by understand the (gambling) game. But at the end of the day you’re not buying a stock because you believe in the business and efficiency of the market to reflect value, you’re buying a stock because you think you can make a profitable trade.

Which way is better? I don’t know. But I’d guess more fortunes were amassed by true investors than stock traders. Just my opinion.

FWIW, I’ve never met a Board member that was a stock trader. I’ve met many Board members that were investors.


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Great response, much appreciated. I don't play the market as a means to aquire wealth. My advisor handles 100% of my portfolio. I just play with a small Ameritrade account for fun. I make money at it but would never pretend to interfere with the judgment of the more practiced, practical advisor. Truth be told I haven't opened my primary account statement in the last 3 months. I believe like you that slow and steady wins the race and am immersed in growth stocks. I do have a large position in oil to feed my propensity to be a dividend whore which is re-invested.

My son is my advisor and I'm confident he'll protect his equity in his inheritance. :)
 
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Apr 14, 2009
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Well this in my country boy homespun view of the stock markets.
The fellas that go public and issue stock get a loan that they don’t have to pay back. And the fellas that buy that stock get screwed.
In Oklahoma over the years the energy boys just keep doing this over and over.
Prime example. Watch Chesapeake and Gulfport in the coming days. A load of folks will get screwed.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
Well this in my country boy homespun view of the stock markets.
The fellas that go public and issue stock get a loan that they don’t have to pay back. And the fellas that buy that stock get screwed.
In Oklahoma over the years the energy boys just keep doing this over and over.
Prime example. Watch Chesapeake and Gulfport in the coming days. A load of folks will get screwed.
Hey Jethro. Is that what they learned you in double-naught spy school?


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Apr 14, 2009
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Yup my life experience has repeatedly shown me the (take it public) or (buy stock in it) cycle of those that get screwed and the screwers!
It’s like watching the sheep that are led to to the barn to be sheared. Just ring the bell and there they go!
It’s always greed that gets folks.
Hell its in all walks of life.
I have friends that are way way upside down with cattle in the feedlots! Hopefully they will get out with their skin intact! Then they will leave it alone for awhile then they slip right back in the market! It’s like drugs addiction for some guys!
 
Sep 29, 2011
1,267
285
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Breckenridge, CO
Yup my life experience has repeatedly shown me the (take it public) or (buy stock in it) cycle of those that get screwed and the screwers!
It’s like watching the sheep that are led to to the barn to be sheared. Just ring the bell and there they go!
It’s always greed that gets folks.
Hell its in all walks of life.
I have friends that are way way upside down with cattle in the feedlots! Hopefully they will get out with their skin intact! Then they will leave it alone for awhile then they slip right back in the market! It’s like drugs addiction for some guys!
Well if your view of buying equity ownership in a company amounts to a loan to the company that should be required to be repaid upon demand, it’s probably best if you don’t invest in the market, or even explore owning a company.

BTW, greed is the only thing that puts food on your table or allows you to drive that big RV of yours.


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ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
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Feb 16, 2011
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dark sarcasm in the classroom
Slok is another guy I like
I thought this was interesting overlaying the chinavirus on the vix. If this continues to play out, it might very well be that we’ve bottomed out.

AF84B964-5299-4317-95E1-FB42DBCB78B6.jpeg


FWIW
Here’s a partial list list of public Bd members that I know with certainty have purchased and sold individual stocks.

Arthur Rock, Larry Mohr, Tim Draper, John Fisher, Edward Hayes, John Young, Pete Solvik, Phillip Schlein, just off the tomh

Nobody on here is promoting investing anyone’s retirement in several individual stocks trading options or playing the market.
Although as I recall a couple of years back @jobob85 said he was taking it all to Vegas and putting it on red, shortly thereafter he retired and moved back to Princeton of the plains.

I’m not going to look but somewhere around where @bleedinorange pointed it out I also pointed out it was more about a personal investment portfolio that I enjoy managing, frankly I’m also damn good at it. Mainly because I stay away from what I don’t know.
My non traditional 3rd party also includes venture and individual angel investments (I make these calls) as well as a number of other wealth creation vehicles.
 
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jobob85

Alcoholistic Sage
A/V Subscriber
Mar 11, 2009
22,591
27,169
1,743
Slok is another guy I like
I thought this was interesting overlaying the chinavirus on the vix. If this continues to play out, it might very well be that we’ve bottomed out.

View attachment 80289

FWIW
Here’s a partial list list of public Bd members that I know with certainty have purchased and sold individual stocks.

Arthur Rock, Larry Mohr, Tim Draper, John Fisher, Edward Hayes, John Young, Pete Solvik, Phillip Schlein, just off the tomh

Nobody on here is promoting investing anyone’s retirement in several individual stocks trading options or playing the market.
Although as I recall a couple of years back @jobob85 said he was taking it all to Vegas and putting it on red, shortly thereafter he retired and moved back to Princeton of the plains.

I’m not going to look but somewhere around where @bleedinorange pointed it out I also pointed out it was more about a personal investment portfolio that I enjoy managing, frankly I’m also damn good at it. Mainly because I stay away from what I don’t know.
My non traditional 3rd party also includes venture and individual angel investments (I make these calls) as well as a number of other wealth creation vehicles.
Interesting correlation.

I have a roulette system, it’s not like really gambling.
 
Sep 29, 2011
1,267
285
713
60
Breckenridge, CO
Slok is another guy I like
I thought this was interesting overlaying the chinavirus on the vix. If this continues to play out, it might very well be that we’ve bottomed out.

View attachment 80289

FWIW
Here’s a partial list list of public Bd members that I know with certainty have purchased and sold individual stocks.

Arthur Rock, Larry Mohr, Tim Draper, John Fisher, Edward Hayes, John Young, Pete Solvik, Phillip Schlein, just off the tomh

Nobody on here is promoting investing anyone’s retirement in several individual stocks trading options or playing the market.
Although as I recall a couple of years back @jobob85 said he was taking it all to Vegas and putting it on red, shortly thereafter he retired and moved back to Princeton of the plains.

I’m not going to look but somewhere around where @bleedinorange pointed it out I also pointed out it was more about a personal investment portfolio that I enjoy managing, frankly I’m also damn good at it. Mainly because I stay away from what I don’t know.
My non traditional 3rd party also includes venture and individual angel investments (I make these calls) as well as a number of other wealth creation vehicles.
Yeah, I’ve never met a Board member that hasn’t bought/sold individual stocks.


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bleedinorange

Federal Marshal
Jan 11, 2010
17,741
32,267
1,743
In Pokey's head
Yup my life experience has repeatedly shown me the (take it public) or (buy stock in it) cycle of those that get screwed and the screwers!
It’s like watching the sheep that are led to to the barn to be sheared. Just ring the bell and there they go!
It’s always greed that gets folks.
Hell its in all walks of life.
I have friends that are way way upside down with cattle in the feedlots! Hopefully they will get out with their skin intact! Then they will leave it alone for awhile then they slip right back in the market! It’s like drugs addiction for some guys!
1588603342096.png
 

ksupoke

We don't need no, thot kuntrol
A/V Subscriber
Feb 16, 2011
12,488
16,665
743
dark sarcasm in the classroom
I mentioned this earlier on in this thread, on a call today where LofL says chinavirus will be most expensive ever for insurers. Probably at least 3x 9/11 or Katrina.

P&C in particular are worried about survival (big guys included) sans gvt handouts.

States are going to put the regulatory screws to business to force the feds to step in and assume liability because health industry can’t afford it and insurance can’t afford it. Get ready for another free flow of cash printing to allow the feds to cover for poorly run companies and states.
 
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Nov 6, 2010
1,435
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OK, so it has been nearly a month since I jumped in on this deal with some really good advice from certain posters, but anyone want to guess which stock of the 14 stocks I decided to buy, which one performed the best?? Drumroll........WENDYS. Not a sexy pick, but up a whopping 31% as of this post. And I had nothing to do with it, my wife picked it.

Worst performing has been Southwest Airlines, down 17% for me.

Any best and worst picks from anyone else?