State of Big 12 Programs over the next 4 seasons

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w0lfe

Wrangler
Aug 23, 2010
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#1
So through some family contacts, I was able to have a sit down conversation with a former sooner football player about all things Big 12. The guy is extremely unbiased and gave his honest opinion on a lot of different matters, including that it was a complete farce that Hurts was invited to NY over Chuba. He mentioned that Hurts was bailed out by Lamb and the defense, but still managed to get credit for wins.. One of the big conversations was over the next 4 years, where are the programs going to sit opposed to today.

Like it or not, Oklahoma sat at the top for a multitude of reasons. They got an influx of young talent on the roster, and Riley is repeating that trend with an even bigger influx of defensive recruits and it seems the defense is only going to get better as the years go. He emphasized that the best QB on the roster is currently being redshirted (Rattler) and the consensus among all the players is that it's not even close as far as skills go; however, Riley has such a good track record with the offensive guys that they all buy into whatever he tells them, including the redshirt this season. Baker and Kyler both were able to learn the offense and it paid dividends before taking the team over. He does think that this years OU team will probably have an early exit in the playoff, especially if they don't lean on the RB's. With that being said, it appears that the feel around the program was "if we can just get through this season". Essentially saying, that this was the opportunity to beat OU because from everything he's seen, they are trending into being a legit National title team in about 2 seasons. I couldn't disagree.

Baylor: It's hard to argue with the improvement that they've made over the past couple of seasons under Rhule. The way that they obliterated Texas and Kansas, while playing OU to the wire again has really opened up some big time recruits eyes. With Rhule being happy being in Waco, this train probably isn't going anywhere. When given time, it looks like Zeno has the skills necessary to be the next QB at Baylor over this span of time.

Iowa State: Here's another that reminded him of Rhule in a lot of ways. It seems like the team has a defense first mentality, and can really bring a physical brand of football. With Campbell's recent contract extension, it's hard to see Iowa State doing anything but trending up. They fall to 3rd just based off Baylor having an easier recruiting pool close to home.

Oklahoma State: He said that it's easy to see the frustration from the fan base with how some of the recent seasons have went, but he went with the tortoise and the hare scenario.. There are other teams (TCU came to mind) that will make a huge leap one season, and then down the next several, whereas Gundy typically always has Oklahoma State in the top 4 of the conference. What was interesting was his opinion on Gundy and the future of the program. He believes that Oklahoma State has probably hit their peak with Gundy and the only way to reach for higher goals would be hiring a young up and coming coach, but with the risk of it going bad and losing the consistency that Gundy brings. What has Oklahoma State done the last few seasons to make you believe that they will take their play to the next level? My answer, nothing. Oklahoma State, if they lose Hubbard and Wallace next season, really needs to be careful because there are a lot of teams in the league trending up that could unseat the Cowboys top 4 placings (Baylor, ISU, possibly K-State)

Kansas State: For reasons similar to Iowa State, one of the big things holding this team back will be the recruiting base. Everyone knows that the coach has way too much success to not build this team to be a thorn in peoples' sides. His first year he was able to do something that hasn't been done in 20+ years, and that was beat OU in Manhattan. If he can start getting some players that fit his mold, they could be a dangerous program that could start placing in that top 4 consistently.

Texas: This one was actually pretty funny, and he still wasn't showing any bias even though there is deliberate hatred for this team. Supposedly there are a lot of higher end recruits that flat out think that Herman is a grade A d-bag. We've all seen it, and it's bleeding over into high school recruits as well. Will they still have great recruiting classes, sure, but he is turning a lot of people off with his actions, and especially with the disappointing seasons he's having. Talented or not, he's done believing that Texas is just a "flip of a switch" to being elite again. It will take a few seasons to weed out some of the cancerous attitudes in the locker room. As we do all know, if they landed the right coach (Urban Meyer), they could develop into a power again.

The rest of the teams can all be tossed in a bowl and pulled out, as far as ranking the next 4 years. Anyways, it was an interesting conversation and I'm curious to see what people think with his assessment. I tend to believe that if OSU doesn't start making the jump soon, it will only get harder and harder to win one. I forgot to mention that he compared it with what OU did with Bob Stoops/Riley and what Urban did with Ryan Day. They handed the program off at the right time, to an up and comer and the program hasn't missed a beat, and may have actually elevated.
 
Nov 16, 2013
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tractor
#4
That's a fair assessment. Rhule won't be at Baylor long, he will go to the League and if Riley wins one he will as well. K-State is the scariest of the teams not named Baylor or based in Norman because that dude knows how to coach and win at a high level. I'm not so sure about Campbell, he loses a lot of games he should win.

Gundy is an interesting phenomenon. At some point there's going to have to be an intervention to make Gundy get a quality offensive coordinator and for that matter a defensive coordinator. Gundy's best years were the Holgerson and Monken years which were forced on Gundy. If that were to occur again that makes Gundy a CEO, which he is very good at, and takes away his fear of the goon. Gundy has done a great job of building the program, but he is at that crossroads. My comments don't mean that Gleason or Knowles are not any good, but neither is a Monken or Holgerson. Bring in the best OC and DC we can get, pay them a lot of money and tell them "Just win baby" and let Gundy do the CEO stuff and maintain a clean program (with regards to Birry). If Gundy won't do it go hire someone that will follow that principle. It just costs money. The beloved Pokes are the $60,000,000 question for the Big XII. Baylor and the misnamed school in Norman really need the Pokes to perform to make the Big XII relevant on the national scene.

Texas is screwed, Herman is a joke that is not funny. Let's hope they don't hire Urban, or worse yet Briles.
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
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#5
So, this year, for all intents and purposes, was a rebuilding year...one where, for better or worse, we had to replace a QB again...IMHO we are currently overachieving considering what we lost and how young the team is overall. No one really knew Hubbard would go all world and we lost our best (according to NFL rating) player...so having an opportunity to win 9 after only winning 7 last year is trending up..not down. We get a few more pieces and another year on our OC and OL coaches and Katy bar the door.

What does it even mean if we end up winning 9 in what we think is a rebuilding year? I feel like this guy wrote this after visiting our site after the Baylor game.
 
Last edited:
Feb 15, 2017
567
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Texas
#6
Still not sold on the Baylor is Back, theme. They could have lost 6 more games, should have lost 3 of those even at 50/50.

They lost to Tech in OT (but were bailed out by a bad call by the ref).
They took 2 OTs to squeak by a bad TCU team.
They hit a last second FG to beat ISU
They blocked a last second FG to beat WVU
They beat Rice by 8
Heck, OSU was leading them in the 4Q !

In the Big12 Champ, the final score may have looked good but BU scored TDs plays of 33 and 81 yards.
Had another play for 78 yrds. Their other 53 plays netted 64 yards !!1 They punted 8 times. They benefited 2-0 in TOs. Don't tell me their Big12 Champ play validated that they were a very good team.
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
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Nov 8, 2004
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#7
Like it or not, Oklahoma sat at the top for a multitude of reasons.
1. Money, second only to Texas in the conference
2. Texas fired a good coach in hopes of getting a great one, and it doesn't always work out that way (Gundy haters please take notice)
3. Nebraska fled the conference in hopes of finding more success in another conference, and it doesn't always work out that way
 

Rack

Legendary Cowboy
Oct 13, 2004
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#8
That's a fair assessment. Rhule won't be at Baylor long, he will go to the League and if Riley wins one he will as well. K-State is the scariest of the teams not named Baylor or based in Norman because that dude knows how to coach and win at a high level. I'm not so sure about Campbell, he loses a lot of games he should win.

Gundy is an interesting phenomenon. At some point there's going to have to be an intervention to make Gundy get a quality offensive coordinator and for that matter a defensive coordinator. Gundy's best years were the Holgerson and Monken years which were forced on Gundy. If that were to occur again that makes Gundy a CEO, which he is very good at, and takes away his fear of the goon. Gundy has done a great job of building the program, but he is at that crossroads. My comments don't mean that Gleason or Knowles are not any good, but neither is a Monken or Holgerson. Bring in the best OC and DC we can get, pay them a lot of money and tell them "Just win baby" and let Gundy do the CEO stuff and maintain a clean program (with regards to Birry). If Gundy won't do it go hire someone that will follow that principle. It just costs money. The beloved Pokes are the $60,000,000 question for the Big XII. Baylor and the misnamed school in Norman really need the Pokes to perform to make the Big XII relevant on the national scene.

Texas is screwed, Herman is a joke that is not funny. Let's hope they don't hire Urban, or worse yet Briles.
Monken was NOT forced on Gundy...he's one of his best friends...Holgerson was, maybe (also note his negitive record vs Gundy as a HC)...2011 was with Monken learning the system from the current QB. Sorry it's a pet peve of mine when people act like Gundy was forced to hire ANYONE sans a one year guy in Holgerson, and that's debatable about it being forced.
 
Last edited:
Nov 16, 2013
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tractor
#10
Monken was NOT forced on Gundy...he's one of his best friends...Holgerson was...2011 was with Monken learning the system from the current QB. Sorry it's a pet peve of mine when people act like Gundy was forced to hire ANYONE sans a one year guy in Holgerson.
Let's clarify, Gundy was forced to hire Holgerson and strongly encouraged to hire Monken even though he is clearly off the Gundy comfort level for an employee
 

sc5mu93

WeaselMonkey
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Oct 18, 2006
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#11
1. Money, second only to Texas in the conference
2. Texas fired a good coach in hopes of getting a great one, and it doesn't always work out that way (Gundy haters please take notice)
3. Nebraska fled the conference in hopes of finding more success in another conference, and it doesn't always work out that way
This.
3a. Nebraska canned Solich (after a 9-3 season) because he wasn't Tom Osborne and have been teh suck ever since. This is what I am afraid of for Pokes.
 
Oct 27, 2003
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#12
Monken was NOT forced on Gundy...he's one of his best friends...Holgerson was...2011 was with Monken learning the system from the current QB. Sorry it's a pet peve of mine when people act like Gundy was forced to hire ANYONE sans a one year guy in Holgerson.
Let's clarify, Gundy was forced to hire Holgerson and strongly encouraged to hire Monken even though he is clearly off the Gundy comfort level for an employee
Monkens about to get fired. He’s available.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Jostate

CPTNQUIRK called me a greenhorn
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Jun 24, 2005
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#13
OSU youngest team in our history, recent excellent recruiting, best head coach in Big 12. Trending upward.
Rhule may prove to be a shooting star but 1-11 to 11 - 2, with both losses being really close losses to the same team, puts Rhule clearly ahead of Gundy. Plus Riley is undisputed.
 

the truth

Deputy
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#14
Let's clarify, Gundy was forced to hire Holgerson and strongly encouraged to hire Monken even though he is clearly off the Gundy comfort level for an employee
First I'd like to ask who strongly encouraged MG to hire Monken or Holgerson? Additionally, no one has ever come out and said "MG you need to hire an OC" at any point. Also, it is known that Holder wouldn't have told MG to hire Monken because Holder didn't hold Monken is high esteem. More because of his garbage mouth both privately and publicly. Frankly I don't care, Monken was the best OC we've had, period the end.
 

Rack

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#16
Let's clarify, Gundy was forced to hire Holgerson and strongly encouraged to hire Monken even though he is clearly off the Gundy comfort level for an employee
Holgy wasn't a good fit...he lived in a hotel...but Monken is perhaps one of, if not, HCMG's best friends they went on Vegas vacations together...at least that is my understanding. From what "truth" is saying Mike had to stick his neck out to hire him in spite of the AD, not because of him. Monken was totally on MG...Holgy however may have been slightly nudged in HCMG's direction.
 
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Rack

Legendary Cowboy
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#18
This.
3a. Nebraska canned Solich (after a 9-3 season) because he wasn't Tom Osborne and have been teh suck ever since. This is what I am afraid of for Pokes.
Actually he won 10 games with the bowl and went 10 - 3 in his final year...Since they fired him they have won 10 games 3 times in 16 years and never more than that...they have missed bowls 4 of the last five years and only had one winning record. They are clearly NOT improved from when Solich left 16 years ago. Stupid move on their part. Granted Pelini was pretty damn decent but they have been through two coaches since him and can't get back to their roots.
 

sc5mu93

WeaselMonkey
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Oct 18, 2006
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#19
Actually he won 10 games with the bowl and went 10 - 3 in his final year...after the fired him they have won 10 games 3 time in 16 years and never more than that...they have missed bowls 4 of the last five years and only had one winning record. They are clearly NOT improved from when Solich left 16 years ago. Stupid move on their part.
im afraid forcing out gundy will be a "solich-move."
 
Jul 25, 2018
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#20
Not a bad assessment.

Btw, did you know Gundy gets paid $5mil/year??

I kid.
So through some family contacts, I was able to have a sit down conversation with a former sooner football player about all things Big 12. The guy is extremely unbiased and gave his honest opinion on a lot of different matters, including that it was a complete farce that Hurts was invited to NY over Chuba. He mentioned that Hurts was bailed out by Lamb and the defense, but still managed to get credit for wins.. One of the big conversations was over the next 4 years, where are the programs going to sit opposed to today.

Like it or not, Oklahoma sat at the top for a multitude of reasons. They got an influx of young talent on the roster, and Riley is repeating that trend with an even bigger influx of defensive recruits and it seems the defense is only going to get better as the years go. He emphasized that the best QB on the roster is currently being redshirted (Rattler) and the consensus among all the players is that it's not even close as far as skills go; however, Riley has such a good track record with the offensive guys that they all buy into whatever he tells them, including the redshirt this season. Baker and Kyler both were able to learn the offense and it paid dividends before taking the team over. He does think that this years OU team will probably have an early exit in the playoff, especially if they don't lean on the RB's. With that being said, it appears that the feel around the program was "if we can just get through this season". Essentially saying, that this was the opportunity to beat OU because from everything he's seen, they are trending into being a legit National title team in about 2 seasons. I couldn't disagree.

Baylor: It's hard to argue with the improvement that they've made over the past couple of seasons under Rhule. The way that they obliterated Texas and Kansas, while playing OU to the wire again has really opened up some big time recruits eyes. With Rhule being happy being in Waco, this train probably isn't going anywhere. When given time, it looks like Zeno has the skills necessary to be the next QB at Baylor over this span of time.

Iowa State: Here's another that reminded him of Rhule in a lot of ways. It seems like the team has a defense first mentality, and can really bring a physical brand of football. With Campbell's recent contract extension, it's hard to see Iowa State doing anything but trending up. They fall to 3rd just based off Baylor having an easier recruiting pool close to home.

Oklahoma State: He said that it's easy to see the frustration from the fan base with how some of the recent seasons have went, but he went with the tortoise and the hare scenario.. There are other teams (TCU came to mind) that will make a huge leap one season, and then down the next several, whereas Gundy typically always has Oklahoma State in the top 4 of the conference. What was interesting was his opinion on Gundy and the future of the program. He believes that Oklahoma State has probably hit their peak with Gundy and the only way to reach for higher goals would be hiring a young up and coming coach, but with the risk of it going bad and losing the consistency that Gundy brings. What has Oklahoma State done the last few seasons to make you believe that they will take their play to the next level? My answer, nothing. Oklahoma State, if they lose Hubbard and Wallace next season, really needs to be careful because there are a lot of teams in the league trending up that could unseat the Cowboys top 4 placings (Baylor, ISU, possibly K-State)

Kansas State: For reasons similar to Iowa State, one of the big things holding this team back will be the recruiting base. Everyone knows that the coach has way too much success to not build this team to be a thorn in peoples' sides. His first year he was able to do something that hasn't been done in 20+ years, and that was beat OU in Manhattan. If he can start getting some players that fit his mold, they could be a dangerous program that could start placing in that top 4 consistently.

Texas: This one was actually pretty funny, and he still wasn't showing any bias even though there is deliberate hatred for this team. Supposedly there are a lot of higher end recruits that flat out think that Herman is a grade A d-bag. We've all seen it, and it's bleeding over into high school recruits as well. Will they still have great recruiting classes, sure, but he is turning a lot of people off with his actions, and especially with the disappointing seasons he's having. Talented or not, he's done believing that Texas is just a "flip of a switch" to being elite again. It will take a few seasons to weed out some of the cancerous attitudes in the locker room. As we do all know, if they landed the right coach (Urban Meyer), they could develop into a power again.

The rest of the teams can all be tossed in a bowl and pulled out, as far as ranking the next 4 years. Anyways, it was an interesting conversation and I'm curious to see what people think with his assessment. I tend to believe that if OSU doesn't start making the jump soon, it will only get harder and harder to win one. I forgot to mention that he compared it with what OU did with Bob Stoops/Riley and what Urban did with Ryan Day. They handed the program off at the right time, to an up and comer and the program hasn't missed a beat, and may have actually elevated.

Yeah that's a terrible comparison. Better one would be Beamer stepping down at VaTech or Bellotti at Oregon.

Regardless, projecting the next 4 years is trickier than ever with the # of transfer QB's.