Predictions for Texas Game

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OSUMIKE17

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Thanks, much appreciated. Of course Ehlinger is the key, especially in the rushing category. We could shut down their RB's, and they could still have big rushing numbers because of him, just like us with Sanders. I really like their converted QB that is playing RB now, but I think he is ripe for fumbles. Here's hoping we get a couple of those this Saturday.
One of the big keys, in my opinion, is that our backside DE MUST keep his edge contained.

He can’t cheat to crash on the RB and give Ehlinger a free lane back the other way. He also can’t get hung up on the tackle, giving the QB room to run on the edge.
 

Rack

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IMHO, it's the typical overhype of a Texas team that has already lost one home game vs a good...not unbeatable, team. Are they down like some of the Texas teams of the past? No, but this isn't a Vince Young type team and we nearly beat them too...Bottom line, we are improved over last year, not a single player on this team has lost to UT (at least I don't think anyone was playing last time they beat us five years ago). Last year we weren't as good as I think we are this year, yet we overwhelmed them early and held on late to win at home. We are also being disrespected and taken lightly in this game considering the series recent history. Additionally, we typically don't even play all that great in Austin and still win...I predict a good game where both teams play pretty well, which is somewhat unusual in this series...AND we win....38-34...same score as last year.
 
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One prediction I feel pretty good about, if we do beat them, I predict their boards will be full of "leave the big XII for the whatever conference" talk again.
 

Jostate

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One prediction I feel pretty good about, if we do beat them, I predict their boards will be full of "leave the big XII for the whatever conference" talk again.
They think they are bigger than conferences. They want to be Notre Dame
 

Birry

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I do think we'll see the TE's used more against Texas. With them keying on Chuba and Wallace, that should be open all night. And I do think that is one area we've intentionally kept off film to save for this game. You may remember last year against Texas we went to Jelani Woods for a critical TD, and it was wide open.
We passed to Cowboy Backs 4 out of 31 attempts (not counting the fake FG or WR end-around/shovel as pass attempts). That equates to about 13% of our passing game. You sure think we could have attempted more passes to them since Texas was intent on stopping the run.

Last year vs Texas we opened the playbook (specifically thinking of 4th down Corn to Woods), so it's not without precedent. To just assume we have nothing else is short sited and wrong, to assume we are only giving our young QB what he can handle at this point is much more likely...also knowing as a dog we will need to open it up to win, SHOULD, cause us to do so.
Aside from the first drive, our play calling was even MORE vanilla than Oregon State. I'd rather lose trying to win than roll over like our coaches (Gundy) did in this game.

I think you need to re-watch the Oregon State game...we ran different blocking schemes and the run game was superior to what we have seen in a long time. I think you are overly focusing on the passing game, that, while we have shown things other than the long bomb to Wallace, it has been a very successful play for us...but it's not our only one. We scored on a slant to CJ Moore late in the game...we threw a sideways out with three blockers that Wallace scored on. We have taken what the defense has given and will take what Texas gives. Could we lose? Sure, Texas is a good team...but for fans to just out and out expect us to lose...IMHO is discouraging.
Just.............lol...................... We definitely took what the defense gave us last night. We took it hard.

Why would we deliberately attack a portion of the field that the defense is focusing on and has more defenders covering? Gundy was asked and said this very thing, teams have been crowding the underneath throwing lanes this year so we are making them pay with outside throws. I am sure if spacing opens up in the underneath throws you will see us take advantage of them though.
That's your argument? That we're avoiding a defensive alignment or scheme? Based on the Texas game, I'd say that Gundy seems not only willing, but intent on attacking a portion of the field that the defense is focusing on!

People need to start viewing our defense in the form it took in the second half of the Tulsa game.

That is what we will be seeing from here on out. That doesn’t mean we’re going to shut everyone out like we did TU, but if anyone thinks Jim Knowles is only going to bring pressure 10% of the time against competitive opponents (like he did most of the OOC games), you’re nuts.

He’s going to run blitz and pass blitz. He’s going to do it from all kinds of exotic formations like this beauty from the 4th down stop.
View attachment 73284

We don’t need “LSU talent.” We need a good gameplan and to play disciplined/fundamentally sound.
I'm curious to know how often we blitzed against Texas. It wasn't often, and it wasn't out of a bunch of exotic looks. We rarely blitzed, and when we did it was often that delayed safety/LB rush. Ehlinger had all day to throw on every dropback. Was he even pressured once?

We overloaded one side of the line causing confusion on who the O-line was supposed to block. Only two down linemen. Trace Ford is lined up in the secondary (!!!) on the very right of the screen. We then brought the blitz from the middle and the left, making the running back choose one while the other had a free lane to the QB.

Don’t get me wrong. I would LOVE to have LSU talent. But there’s a few things to keep in mind.

One, I think LSU is heavy and not conditioned for Big12 offenses. All the talent couldn’t stop them from going down several times with cramps in the second half.

Two, they rely on their talent whereas Big12 defenses have to create better schemes and gameplans to combat forward thinking Big12 offenses. That’s why Iowa State’s defense, despite its lack of talent, continues to be successful. We can do the same with a slight upgrade at talent.

I think Knowles has a lot up his sleeve for Saturday. We saw some of it during the second half against TU when we all but shut down their run game.

Right now for the year, Texas is averaging a mere 4.32 yards per carry. Against Rice, they averaged 4.75 yards per carry. They aren’t the rushing juggernaut people seem to think they are. Keep them honest there and put stress on Ehlinger in the passing game. They’ll score points for sure but I think we can score more.
A lot up his sleeve, huh? I saw the same stuff we've been running. Texas took advantage of our alignments with surgical precision and absolute ease. 5 in the box? Run up the middle for 5-7 yards. Nobody lined up over the slot receiver? Throw a quick pass for 7-9 easy yards. One outside corner aligned over two split wide? Screen to that side with 2 on one blocking for positive yardage while our defenders run to make the tackle from 15 yards. Texas dismantled whatever it is we were trying to do with the exception of a few times that they shot themselves in the foot. Texas averaged nearly 5.1 yards per carry against us. They could have run 80% of the time and probably scored more points than they did.

And at the end of the night, Texas had multiple huge chunk plays that our defensive scheme is supposed to prevent. Granted, one of those was a busted coverage, but still. Having 3 safeties lined up 15 yards back on every play is absolutely going to get us murdered by any team with a moderately talented OC. You could nearly predict what Texas was going to do based on our alignment. I remember one particular play, Texas had what appeared to be 2 WR and a TE split to the right of their formation. We had (1) corner aligned over the outside receiver, and a LB looking inside like he was maybe going to rush, but roughly close to the TE. Ehlinger caught the snap and immediately threw straight to the slot receiver, who had nobody within 7 yards of him. It was the easiest thing ever.
 
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Rack

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Birry -

1. You have two much time on your hands.
2. You seem to have a problem with Coach Gundy who is the best coach we have had in program history.
3. We ran a trick play fake (which didn't work) and went for it several times on 4th down and attempted an on sides kick. So we weren't "completely" vinalla NOR did we "roll over." We just got beat and it very easily could have gone our way.
4. Yes, we lost the game...we also beat the spread...I get the impression you wish we had lost even worse so you could spend even more time bashing coaches.
5. Our kicker had a nice game actually one of his best if not his best so far.

Bottom line, move on...KSU is Saturday.

Go Pokes!!
 
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Birry

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Birry -

1. You have two much time on your hands.
2. You seem to have a problem with Coach Gundy who is the best coach we have had in program history.
3. We ran a trick play fake (which didn't work) and went for it several times on 4th down and attempted an on sides kick. So we weren't "completely" vinalla NOR did we "roll over." We just got beat and it very easily could have gone our way.
4. Yes, we lost the game...we also beat the spread...I get the impression you wish we had lost even worse so you could spend even more time bashing coaches.

Bottom line, move on...KSU is Saturday.

Go Pokes!!
Its so funny how these things work. You respond with such hubris before the game; calling people "weak" and bad fans when they don't predict us to win, then when you're proven wrong with actual facts, you become indignant when people respond in kind after the game. Heck yes I'm going to come back after the game and point out how wrong you were, since before the game you couldn't type fast enough telling me how wrong I was.

Running trick plays and going for it on 4th down have nothing to do with the vanilla argument. In both cases, they were just terrible calls, and it was likely the vanilla game plan that put us in the 4th down situation to begin with. Like, the actual plays that were called were just really, really dumb. And for the record, I was hoping we would have kicked the FG in both cases (which would have put us up 31-28).

Look, you need to understand that my opinion of coach Gundy contains nuance (which I know isn't really allowed online). I don't "have a problem" with Gundy in general. My opinion of him is that he's a GREAT program manager, a decent face of the program, but a very below average in-game manager. His management of the offense (or outright play calling) is FAR too conservative, he doesn't go for the kill against teams that we can easily put away, and he still has issues with game flow and clock management.
 
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osupsycho

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We passed to Cowboy Backs 4 out of 31 attempts (not counting the fake FG or WR end-around/shovel as pass attempts). That equates to about 13% of our passing game. You sure think we could have attempted more passes to them since Texas was intent on stopping the run.


Aside from the first drive, our play calling was even MORE vanilla than Oregon State. I'd rather lose trying to win than roll over like our coaches (Gundy) did in this game.


Just.............lol...................... We definitely took what the defense gave us last night. We took it hard.


That's your argument? That we're avoiding a defensive alignment or scheme? Based on the Texas game, I'd say that Gundy seems not only willing, but intent on attacking a portion of the field that the defense is focusing on!


I'm curious to know how often we blitzed against Texas. It wasn't often, and it wasn't out of a bunch of exotic looks. We rarely blitzed, and when we did it was often that delayed safety/LB rush. Ehlinger had all day to throw on every dropback. Was he even pressured once?


A lot up his sleeve, huh? I saw the same stuff we've been running. Texas took advantage of our alignments with surgical precision and absolute ease. 5 in the box? Run up the middle for 5-7 yards. Nobody lined up over the slot receiver? Throw a quick pass for 7-9 easy yards. One outside corner aligned over two split wide? Screen to that side with 2 on one blocking for positive yardage while our defenders run to make the tackle from 15 yards. Texas dismantled whatever it is we were trying to do with the exception of a few times that they shot themselves in the foot. Texas averaged nearly 5.1 yards per carry against us. They could have run 80% of the time and probably scored more points than they did.

And at the end of the night, Texas had multiple huge chunk plays that our defensive scheme is supposed to prevent. Granted, one of those was a busted coverage, but still. Having 3 safeties lined up 15 yards back on every play is absolutely going to get us murdered by any team with a moderately talented OC. You could nearly predict what Texas was going to do based on our alignment. I remember one particular play, Texas had what appeared to be 2 WR and a TE split to the right of their formation. We had (1) corner aligned over the outside receiver, and a LB looking inside like he was maybe going to rush, but roughly close to the TE. Ehlinger caught the snap and immediately threw straight to the slot receiver, who had nobody within 7 yards of him. It was the easiest thing ever.
Why don't you come back after you know how to read a defense because their defense was setup to stop the pass most of the night, not the run. They just had excellent enough athletes in their front guys to also be able to stop the run even with a lack of numbers. Thus I alter my earlier statement about you not watching our games to obviously you not being able to really see what is going on during the games.
 

Rack

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Its so funny how these things work. You respond with such hubris before the game; calling people "weak" and bad fans when they don't predict us to win, then when you're proven wrong with actual facts, you become indignant when people respond in kind after the game. Heck yes I'm going to come back after the game and point out how wrong you were, since before the game you couldn't type fast enough telling me how wrong I was.

Running trick plays and going for it on 4th down have nothing to do with the vanilla argument. In both cases, they were just terrible calls, and it was likely the vanilla game plan that put us in the 4th down situation to begin with. Like, the actual plays that were called were just really, really dumb. And for the record, I was hoping we would have kicked the FG in both cases (which would have put us up 31-28).

Look, you need to understand that my opinion of coach Gundy contains nuance (which I know isn't really allowed online). I don't "have a problem" with Gundy in general. My opinion of him is that he's a GREAT program manager, a decent face of the program, but a very below average in-game manager. His management of the offense (or outright play calling) is FAR too conservative, he doesn't go for the kill against teams that we can easily put away, and he still has issues with game flow and clock management.
Yet his approach has brought us our longest term of success in the history of our program. I called people out for being overly negative and thinking we had no chance of winning before the game...Not only was I NOT proven wrong...with a few better calls on spots and a ball bouncing our way on the on sides or one stop of the QB after that, I would have been totally right. My point was always this was going to be a good and very close game...and it was exactly that. In fact, it was exactly the same type of game we have with Texas annually...they are just a little better than they have been this year. They were ranked 12 and we weren't ranked, the spread was 7 and we lost by 6. Some of the folks I was watching with were actually encouraged for the future. Sure it was a loss and we could have won...but that is how it goes. Beat KSU!
 

Birry

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Yet his approach has brought us our longest term of success in the history of our program. I called people out for being overly negative and thinking we had no chance of winning before the game...Not only was I NOT proven wrong...with a few better calls on spots and a ball bouncing our way on the on sides or one stop of the QB after that, I would have been totally right. My point was always this was going to be a good and very close game...and it was exactly that. In fact, it was exactly the same type of game we have with Texas annually...they are just a little better than they have been this year. They were ranked 12 and we weren't ranked, the spread was 7 and we lost by 6. Some of the folks I was watching with were actually encouraged for the future. Sure it was a loss and we could have won...but that is how it goes. Beat KSU!
You called people out for predicting us to lose. And we lost.... Seems you'd rather be pompous than correct.
 

Birry

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Why don't you come back after you know how to read a defense because their defense was setup to stop the pass most of the night, not the run. They just had excellent enough athletes in their front guys to also be able to stop the run even with a lack of numbers. Thus I alter my earlier statement about you not watching our games to obviously you not being able to really see what is going on during the games.
So when Gundy mentioned in pregame that he knew they were going to key on the run, and then mentioned it again after halftime that we needed to mix it up since they were keying on the run, he was just.......wrong? It was clear that Texas was dominating the line of scrimmage, so why not mix up our attack somehow? Is it because we simply don't have those plays? I'm genuinely curious to know. Because if we can only win games when we are physically superior to other teams, then we will never win a championship under Gundy, and we may have seen our ceiling under him as our coach.
 
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Why don't you come back after you know how to read a defense because their defense was setup to stop the pass most of the night, not the run.
https://247sports.com/college/oklah...football-offensive-review-vs-Texas-135979453/
Texas sold out to stop the run, used a corner or walk down safety to come off the edge, not to pressure the passer but to erase the opportunity to get Hubbard outside. The edge was very fuzzy, so the outside zone wasn't effective. The Cowboys adjusted, but the offensive line was inconsistent in getting enough push to make inside run plays work. The bracket coverage on Tylan Wallace was limiting for him and the offense.

Texas did what we expected them to do. They bracketed Wallace and sold out to stop the run. They were going to try to make Sanders beat them through the air throwing to targets other than Wallace. It was a fairly effective plan. We're likely to see the same thing moving forward until we show that we can beat it.