Predict the Score: OSU vs Boise St

  • You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Apr 14, 2018
261
103
43
26
Owasso
EXCELLENT analysis Agent Orange.

I'm also curious to see how they handle our offensive tempo. Their defense is good, but if they're getting winded by a high tempo offense...defensive depth could be a liability. Our intermediate game may be an advantage.

I see this being close until the mid 3rd quarter. We then pull away.

OSU 42
Boise 27
Virginia was also ranked 79th in total defense last season. OSU was 85th. So that wasn't even against a good defense.
 
Aug 3, 2018
25
18
3
Arizona
I am going to argue that you should not be so ABSOLUTELY sure that the deep ball is no longer available. TC is not Mason when it comes to the deep ball but that does not mean it is dead to us. He has hit several already and we have WR talents to make up for some of the not perfect throws. Also you seem to forget we have better RB talent than any of the previous offenses under Gundy so even if the deep ball is not there as much the RBs should make up for a lot of that.
Cornelius is ranked 8th in the nation in long passing plays. BSU's Rypien is ranked 22nd. These do not break out passing distance vs YAC, so yes those stunning beautiful swing passes to our amazingly talented RB's do count.

I do think this "deep ball" urban legend was started during the MSU game when an announcer stated "with R2W gone, they don't have a deep ball threat", which while an interesting sound bite is not quite accurate. Oh, and that announcers statement was on Stoner getting a double handed shove in the chest for Pass Interference, in the end zone. No long passing TD, but a 1st down.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2018/leader/national/player/split01/category32/sort01.html
 
Nov 16, 2013
2,427
1,822
243
32
tractor
Boise State: 48
OSU: 17

I think reality is getting ready to slap us in the face. Go ahead, down-vote my post; call me what you will. We've relied on the deep ball for so long, that it has masked the fact that an accurate deep ball is our "Vince Young/Colt McCoy" savior aka deep ball made-up for bad defenses and way below average o-line play (without Young and McCoy, Texas sucks. Without the deep ball, our offenses would've sucked in Rudolph era. For those times when the deep ball was not there in Rudolph era, defenses easily stopped our offenses)

I've watched Boise State's game against UCONN and became ill with every correct decision Boise State's QB made. He did not make one mistake. Not one. He goes through his progressions with speed, and always threw it correctly according to the defensive situation. He never put his WR's is bad situations, not once. He throws it with absolute precision. He's a legitimate QB; NFL talent, IMO.

Then, to make things worse, BS has an excellent defensive unit. Most notably, its d-line utterly dominated UCONN'S o-line, as if they were made of bubble wrap. There are several NFL-talent players on that defensive team; very athletic and fast.

OSU, well, I just don't know about TC. At times he makes good decisions; other times he makes bad decisions. And then there are the those times when be put WR's in dangerous situations. When TC is under pressure, he makes terrible decisions...

Which leads me to our o-line. Our o-line is weak. Against inferior teams, the defense was able to apply pressure on TC far too many times. And when I think of Boise's d-line, yikes. I think they're going to welcome TC to the world of big boy collegiate football.

The deep ball is no longer available, unfortunately. That has been our key to success, for many seasons. We may have quality RB's, but they sure didn't impress against South Alabama. This is due to the weak o-line. I think Boise State's powerful d-line (well, all-around great defensive unit) will be the reason we get blown out.

Obviously Boise State is not Alabama, as some are saying..which isn't even a legitimate argument (who are we, btw? Other than a few RB's and Bundage, eh, nothing special as of yet). BState is a legitimate team tho, that not one person should take lightly. They have several NFL-ready players on both sides of the ball.

I hope I'm dead wrong. I hope we utterly dominate and win the game. But, man...Boise State looked damn good, much better than we've looked thus far.

To those who are not mature enough to skip over a post you disagree with, I am a true OSU fan and always will be. I may only say what I think is true, according to my own reasoning. If you disagree, fine. We're all OSU fans here and it's kinda silly how fans on message boards attack other users, all because you disagree with whatever you've read.

There's a polarization of a mentality that you're either a sunshine pumper or a non-OSU fan for criticising/voicing an opinion that some find as negative. If you post in a "negative manner," people call you out, as if you're a POS non-fan. This type of behavior is simply elementary. Lose the polarization mentality that plauges this site and this board could become a much better experience for OSU fans. Just talk football, instead of summarizing posts as either sunshine or "negative." It's just silly.

There's a huge difference between talking football and calling people names/replying in a disrespectful manner. If you wanna reply in a respectful manner, I'll gladly engage in quality football talk. Otherwise, please don't waste my time with a disrespectful reply.
So you're saying to bet the house, the 401-K, the dog and the pet hamster? Asking for a friend that has decided to invest in your obviously cloudy prediction and go to Vegas instead of watching this big time beat down you are predicting.
 
Aug 3, 2018
25
18
3
Arizona
oSu is #1 in the nation having run 178 offensive plays.
BSU is #4 having run 135 offensive plays.

BSU's D has faced 128 plays. oSu's as face 132 plays.

It's highly likely Boise State's D will face about 50% more plays against us than they have so far this year. I would assume we see an uptempo Offense from Yurcich.

FYI - Cornelius has run the fastest Offense in the nation virtually flawlessly. Just sayin'...
 

CPTNQUIRK

I'm Your Captain!
A/V Subscriber
Nov 20, 2006
29,539
19,744
1,743
67
In the Boondocks in Creek County, Oklahoma
This is against Virginia last year (Boise lost 42-23) with very similar personnel. Not only did they lose, they got blown out. It was 42-14 in the 4th quarter when Boise waived the white flag and pulled Rypien.

Also, it should be noted that UCONN is one of the worst teams in division I. UCONN is so bad that they are starting TEN true freshmen this year. I would hope that Boise could blow them out.

Anyway, here’s some interesting stuff from their Virginia game. Disclaimer: you will find mistakes from this previously anointed mistake-free QB.

Nothing complicated here. Six men in the box, four-man pass rush with an inside stunt with LBs dropping back into zone responsibilities. Rypien stares down his receiver, and when he realizes that his man isn't getting open he tries to escape the pocket but lacks the speed and athleticism to get anywhere close to escaping. Virginia's DT wraps all the way around the edge to get heavy pressure in Rypien's face and forces intentional grounding. This shows me that Rypien struggles when faced with a dirty pocket. He lacks the ability to escape pressure and create plays. If his first or second read isn't open by the time pressure arrives we are either going to kill him or force an incompletion. Keep in mind, we have significantly better athletes and speed across the board than Virginia does.


https://gfycat.com/GenuineCorruptBrownbear


Next play... Seven-man rush. Inside LBs cross and leave the center clueless. For as experienced as this Boise O-Line is this play shows me they can be easily confused. When Virginia's LBs cross this puts their center into a conundrum, but he should know that picking up the free man running up the middle is the first priority. Center misses his block and causes a free man to the QB. Rypien doesn't see it until it's too late and decides to throw a deep ball into double coverage.


http://gfycat.com/AncientWealthyAnemone


Similar to the play above. Six-man rush this time with LBs crossing. The center allows a free man up the middle and Rypien throws a duck across the middle (catchable, but not a good throw) for a pick that seals the game.


https://gfycat.com/InsistentUnfinishedCornsnake


These next two GIFs illustrate just how bad Rypien is whenever the pocket starts collapsing. He has very little pocket awareness and just stands there stranded. This also shows that their O-Line is not as good as everyone is saying. They struggle with 4 man rushes, simple stunts, and their center frequently allows free rushes straight up the middle.

https://gfycat.com/EntireElatedAnnelid

https://gfycat.com/embellishedequalbandicoot
@CowboyOrange82 , what is your analysis of this ^^^^?
 

stonewallpoke

가라
A/V Subscriber
Nov 19, 2007
31,445
20,689
1,743
Gunsan City, Korea
I have no faith we can keep this close. I think there will be QB questions galore for HCMG in the post game conference. We could see a new QB next week or Gundy could go full on Dax Garman and not play another QB until the end of the season. Hopefully it's the former.
What in the world are you basing this on? The two blowout wins to open the year?
 

stonewallpoke

가라
A/V Subscriber
Nov 19, 2007
31,445
20,689
1,743
Gunsan City, Korea
Boise State: 48
OSU: 17

I think reality is getting ready to slap us in the face. Go ahead, down-vote my post; call me what you will. We've relied on the deep ball for so long, that it has masked the fact that an accurate deep ball is our "Vince Young/Colt McCoy" savior aka deep ball made-up for bad defenses and way below average o-line play (without Young and McCoy, Texas sucks. Without the deep ball, our offenses would've sucked in Rudolph era. For those times when the deep ball was not there in Rudolph era, defenses easily stopped our offenses)
Brushing aside the factual inaccuracies here for a moment, considering the rant about things not being black and white that you'll go on later, the whole "come at me, bro!" attitude here seems self-defeating.

Now then, we ran roughshod over our first two opponents without the deep ball, but suddenly we're going to suck if we don't have it? Furthermore, comparing Texas losing Colt McCoy and/or Vince Young to us losing Rudolph and Washington is comparing oranges to bananas. Texas had plenty of talent after those guys left and suffered from mis-management.

I've watched Boise State's game against UCONN and became ill with every correct decision Boise State's QB made. He did not make one mistake. Not one.
UConn. Against UConn.

Also, you're aware that the turf in Boise just looks like water, so it wasn't that impressive that Rypien was walking on it, right?

He goes through his progressions with speed, and always threw it correctly according to the defensive situation. He never put his WR's is bad situations, not once. He throws it with absolute precision. He's a legitimate QB; NFL talent, IMO.
A legitimate NFL talent he may be, but it's not like we haven't beaten such a QB before.

Then, to make things worse, BS has an excellent defensive unit. Most notably, its d-line utterly dominated UCONN'S o-line, as if they were made of bubble wrap. There are several NFL-talent players on that defensive team; very athletic and fast.
UConn. Against UConn.

Also, once again, it isn't like we haven't seen, played against, and beaten similar defenses before now. Besides, literally everything in this manifesto of yours could apply in reverse to a similarly doom-crying Boise State football forum poster who watched our first two games.

OSU, well, I just don't know about TC. At times he makes good decisions; other times he makes bad decisions. And then there are the those times when be put WR's in dangerous situations. When TC is under pressure, he makes terrible decisions...
Haha, what? You "don't know about [Cornelius]" because he's literally like every other QB in America and sometimes makes good decisions, and then sometimes makes bad decisions? That's like saying "I don't know about going to the beach, man: sometimes you have fun with your friends and enjoy the weather, and other times you drown".

Also, he makes terrible decision under pressure? Did you see the interceptions? They weren't really, in my memory, under duress. They were just forced passes by a guy who previously hadn't started a game since high school.

Which leads me to our o-line. Our o-line is weak. Against inferior teams, the defense was able to apply pressure on TC far too many times. And when I think of Boise's d-line, yikes. I think they're going to welcome TC to the world of big boy collegiate football.
The offensive line could be better. This will be a challenge against Boise State like it obviously wasn't against teams like Missouri State and South Alabama.

Having said that, "introduce him to big boy collegiate football"? Like, what's he been playing at Oklahoma State then, eh?

The deep ball is no longer available, unfortunately. That has been our key to success, for many seasons.
The idea that you simply haven't seen a lot of the deep ball yet leads you to believe it no longer exists. Got it.

We may have quality RB's, but they sure didn't impress against South Alabama. This is due to the weak o-line. I think Boise State's powerful d-line (well, all-around great defensive unit) will be the reason we get blown out.
Just like the USA game last year, USA sold out against Hill/King/Brown. And Cornelius picked them apart. I doubt very much that Boise State will sell out completely against any one element of our offense and leave the other element alone on an island to survive or die.

Obviously Boise State is not Alabama, as some are saying..which isn't even a legitimate argument (who are we, btw? Other than a few RB's and Bundage, eh, nothing special as of yet). BState is a legitimate team tho, that not one person should take lightly. They have several NFL-ready players on both sides of the ball.
Who's taking Boise State lightly? Don't give me that "the fans taking an opponent likely will affect the outcome of the game" story, either.

I hope I'm dead wrong. I hope we utterly dominate and win the game. But, man...Boise State looked damn good, much better than we've looked thus far.
Boise State indeed looked good. Against Troy. And UConn. Our opponents weren't much to sniff at either, but to say that Boise State's body of work trumps our based on basically the same conditions is ludicrous.

Also, solid move couching this online "THE END IS NEAR" poster board in "I hope I'm wrong". There is zero chance you will cop to being wrong if we beat them.

To those who are not mature enough to skip over a post you disagree with, I am a true OSU fan and always will be. I may only say what I think is true, according to my own reasoning. If you disagree, fine. We're all OSU fans here and it's kinda silly how fans on message boards attack other users, all because you disagree with whatever you've read.
I eagerly await your (and others) self-same interpretation of disagreeing with your prediction as an "attack".

There's a polarization of a mentality that you're either a sunshine pumper or a non-OSU fan for criticising/voicing an opinion that some find as negative. If you post in a "negative manner," people call you out, as if you're a POS non-fan. This type of behavior is simply elementary. Lose the polarization mentality that plauges this site and this board could become a much better experience for OSU fans. Just talk football, instead of summarizing posts as either sunshine or "negative." It's just silly.
God, I want to agree sooooooooo much with the sentiment behind this, but I just can't. Because logically, your reasoning is flawed when it comes to your score prediction, and you're already throwing up this paragraph to automatically paint any objections or counter-arguments as "elementary". Also, I'm not sure what you would call a long post pointing out how Brett Rypien is Potato Jesus and we're getting rolled by a Mountain West team by more than four touchdowns. Other than "negative". This post is so negative that if you develop it in a dark room you get a positive post.

There's a huge difference between talking football and calling people names/replying in a disrespectful manner. If you wanna reply in a respectful manner, I'll gladly engage in quality football talk. Otherwise, please don't waste my time with a disrespectful reply.
 
Aug 3, 2018
25
18
3
Arizona
Brushing aside the factual inaccuracies here for a moment, considering the rant about things not being black and white that you'll go on later, the whole "come at me, bro!" attitude here seems self-defeating.

Now then, we ran roughshod over our first two opponents without the deep ball, but suddenly we're going to suck if we don't have it? Furthermore, comparing Texas losing Colt McCoy and/or Vince Young to us losing Rudolph and Washington is comparing oranges to bananas. Texas had plenty of talent after those guys left and suffered from mis-management.


UConn. Against UConn.

Also, you're aware that the turf in Boise just looks like water, so it wasn't that impressive that Rypien was walking on it, right?


A legitimate NFL talent he may be, but it's not like we haven't beaten such a QB before.


UConn. Against UConn.

Also, once again, it isn't like we haven't seen, played against, and beaten similar defenses before now. Besides, literally everything in this manifesto of yours could apply in reverse to a similarly doom-crying Boise State football forum poster who watched our first two games.



Haha, what? You "don't know about [Cornelius]" because he's literally like every other QB in America and sometimes makes good decisions, and then sometimes makes bad decisions? That's like saying "I don't know about going to the beach, man: sometimes you have fun with your friends and enjoy the weather, and other times you drown".

Also, he makes terrible decision under pressure? Did you see the interceptions? They weren't really, in my memory, under duress. They were just forced passes by a guy who previously hadn't started a game since high school.



The offensive line could be better. This will be a challenge against Boise State like it obviously wasn't against teams like Missouri State and South Alabama.

Having said that, "introduce him to big boy collegiate football"? Like, what's he been playing at Oklahoma State then, eh?


The idea that you simply haven't seen a lot of the deep ball yet leads you to believe it no longer exists. Got it.



Just like the USA game last year, USA sold out against Hill/King/Brown. And Cornelius picked them apart. I doubt very much that Boise State will sell out completely against any one element of our offense and leave the other element alone on an island to survive or die.


Who's taking Boise State lightly? Don't give me that "the fans taking an opponent likely will affect the outcome of the game" story, either.


Boise State indeed looked good. Against Troy. And UConn. Our opponents weren't much to sniff at either, but to say that Boise State's body of work trumps our based on basically the same conditions is ludicrous.

Also, solid move couching this online "THE END IS NEAR" poster board in "I hope I'm wrong". There is zero chance you will cop to being wrong if we beat them.


I eagerly await your (and others) self-same interpretation of disagreeing with your prediction as an "attack".



God, I want to agree sooooooooo much with the sentiment behind this, but I just can't. Because logically, your reasoning is flawed when it comes to your score prediction, and you're already throwing up this paragraph to automatically paint any objections or counter-arguments as "elementary". Also, I'm not sure what you would call a long post pointing out how Brett Rypien is Potato Jesus and we're getting rolled by a Mountain West team by more than four touchdowns. Other than "negative". This post is so negative that if you develop it in a dark room you get a positive post.



You need to throw 2 more attributes - Rational/Irrational and Informed/Uninformed. Key with all this spew is that it's completely Uniformed opinion from someone that is fundamentally Negative.

Reality is that the Donkey's return a bunch of starters. They've crushed 2 horrible teams (UConn won 3 games last year in a crap conference). We've crushed 2 crap teams, with USA actually having some stout athletes.

Regarding all the Cornelius chatter - he's lead our offense to several national best-in-class rankings (against crap teams). oSu has run more offensive plays than any other FBS team. oSu is the 7th most prolific passing team in the FBS.
Folks can Quack in fear all they want (wallow in a negative uninformed pit of darkness) Cornelius is getting the job done quite nicely for us. Our Offensive line can run really fast. And we have 4 RB's that are one shimmy away from the end zone.

Should be a fun game!

oSu - 34
Smurf Donkeys - 27
 

Birry

Federal Marshal
Feb 6, 2007
11,086
6,495
1,743
Landlocked
Cornelius is ranked 8th in the nation in long passing plays. BSU's Rypien is ranked 22nd. These do not break out passing distance vs YAC, so yes those stunning beautiful swing passes to our amazingly talented RB's do count.

I do think this "deep ball" urban legend was started during the MSU game when an announcer stated "with R2W gone, they don't have a deep ball threat", which while an interesting sound bite is not quite accurate. Oh, and that announcers statement was on Stoner getting a double handed shove in the chest for Pass Interference, in the end zone. No long passing TD, but a 1st down.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2018/leader/national/player/split01/category32/sort01.html
Typically, a deep ball would be a go route, out and up, deep post, seam, sometimes off play action......but yeah, we're not as good as we have been at that type of play, and its not difficult to see that. Not sure how they determine what's what, but a swing pass is not a deep ball. I don't think its totally gone from our arsenal, but our guys haven't proven yet that they can go up and win a battle for a jump ball consistently, or that TC can drop it in over the shoulder once they have a couple steps on the coverage.

I think we'll get there. I think TC's accuracy could improve, which means he hits at least three more TDs in the first two games. And I think our receivers (specifically Wallace) will start to show that they can get it done.
 
Aug 3, 2018
25
18
3
Arizona
Typically, a deep ball would be a go route, out and up, deep post, seam, sometimes off play action......but yeah, we're not as good as we have been at that type of play, and its not difficult to see that. Not sure how they determine what's what, but a swing pass is not a deep ball. I don't think its totally gone from our arsenal, but our guys haven't proven yet that they can go up and win a battle for a jump ball consistently, or that TC can drop it in over the shoulder once they have a couple steps on the coverage.

I think we'll get there. I think TC's accuracy could improve, which means he hits at least three more TDs in the first two games. And I think our receivers (specifically Wallace) will start to show that they can get it done.
I used the wrong term - It's Long Pass Plays. We've seen Corn drop some beautiful dimes in.
 
Aug 3, 2018
25
18
3
Arizona
Typically, a deep ball would be a go route, out and up, deep post, seam, sometimes off play action......but yeah, we're not as good as we have been at that type of play, and its not difficult to see that. Not sure how they determine what's what, but a swing pass is not a deep ball. I don't think its totally gone from our arsenal, but our guys haven't proven yet that they can go up and win a battle for a jump ball consistently, or that TC can drop it in over the shoulder once they have a couple steps on the coverage.

I think we'll get there. I think TC's accuracy could improve, which means he hits at least three more TDs in the first two games. And I think our receivers (specifically Wallace) will start to show that they can get it done.
TW has the breakdown you're looking for:
https://www.tulsaworld.com/sportsex...cle_2709f5c1-429f-5ff6-bb23-c57b50d33169.html
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
A/V Subscriber
Nov 8, 2004
64,342
47,188
1,743
Wishing I was in Stillwater
I don't think we need TC to throw the long ball. I think he needs to be effective, needs to be a game manager, not turn the ball over, get us out of bad plays at the line of scrimmage, and use the run game to open up the play-action.
 

Birry

Federal Marshal
Feb 6, 2007
11,086
6,495
1,743
Landlocked
I don't think we need TC to throw the long ball. I think he needs to be effective, needs to be a game manager, not turn the ball over, get us out of bad plays at the line of scrimmage, and use the run game to open up the play-action.
This. I'm not sure why people care so much about the deep ball if we're moving the ball and scoring points. I've actually enjoyed seeing TC check down a lot. I'd prefer that as opposed to just flinging the ball downfield and hoping for the best.
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
A/V Subscriber
Nov 8, 2004
64,342
47,188
1,743
Wishing I was in Stillwater
This. I'm not sure why people care so much about the deep ball if we're moving the ball and scoring points. I've actually enjoyed seeing TC check down a lot. I'd prefer that as opposed to just flinging the ball downfield and hoping for the best.
Use the passing game to open running lanes for our incredible stable of backs, and then use the backs to open up the PA passing game. RPO baby!
 

RxCowboy

Has no Rx for his orange obsession.
A/V Subscriber
Nov 8, 2004
64,342
47,188
1,743
Wishing I was in Stillwater
From what I've seen in the first two games he's entirely capable of doing the things we need him to do, even in big games like the one coming up. He needs to stop throwing into double coverage in the end zone. He's trying to fit the ball into entirely too small windows there, but I'm sure the coaches have pointed that out.
 
Oct 27, 2003
3,979
2,489
1,743
61
McKinney, TX
Visit site
I don't think we need TC to throw the long ball. I think he needs to be effective, needs to be a game manager, not turn the ball over, get us out of bad plays at the line of scrimmage, and use the run game to open up the play-action.
This. I'm not sure why people care so much about the deep ball if we're moving the ball and scoring points. I've actually enjoyed seeing TC check down a lot. I'd prefer that as opposed to just flinging the ball downfield and hoping for the best.
Chunk play is a chunk play no matter how it developed


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Status
Not open for further replies.