NO NEW TARIFFS: TRUMP WINS TRADE BATTLE WITH CHINA

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Sep 23, 2018
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Memphis
#83
I'm sorry but the rate of inflation during the Obama years was (at times) higher than it has been during Trump's tenure and yet interest rates were kept at basically zero. Your comment doesn't hold water.

I guess you backed off of your comments about how well the Dow did during the Obama years vs. Trump. Glad you saw the light.
I didn't back off. What I originally said stands. The Dow increased by 11,000 points during his tenure, regardless of how flat it might have been in his last few years. You apparently think that, with Trump, it won't flatten out. It has increased more than Trump's tenure, which has seen dangerous hyper-growth and a stock market that is so grossly over-priced, that we'll first see a correction here pretty soon, AND THEN a recession in late 2019/early 2020. Then who will you blame? President Trump...or pull out stupid data from President Obama's tenure and say "see, see, it's Obama's fault!"...?

There's no light I need to see. But continue with the condescending crap. I'm just waiting for *real* economic hardship to be felt by Trump supporters. I think that's the only way the cult will be broken.
 
Sep 23, 2018
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#85
Much of the stock market growth during Obama's presidency can be chalked up to recovery from the financial crisis. The indexes didn't set new all time highs until Obama's 5th year in office.

From the 2012 election to the 2016 election, the Dow increased by 38%. From the 2016 election until now, it's increased 37%. It would probably be up 50% or more if it weren't for the trade war with China.

This year has been really interesting:
1. The trade war with China caused a correction early in the year. The stock market slowly recovered to set new all time highs in August.
2. Early in October, the fed chairman Jerome Powell made the comment that interest rates were a 'long way' from neutral. This scared investors, and the stock market dropped 10% over the next few weeks.
3. Late in November Powell backtracked and said that interest rates were 'just below' neutral. This caused the stock market to rebound 7% off of it's lows.
4. Monday the stock market reacted positively to the 90 day window that the US and China agreed upon to work out a trade deal. But it closed the day up only a little bit over 1% higher than Friday's close.
5. Yesterday we saw the fist signs of an inverted yield curve in treasury bonds. This scared investors and the stock market dropped about 3%.

There's been a lot more to the stock market fluctuations this year than just the trade war with China.
So basically, Trump inherited a healthy economy from Obama. Thanks for confirming that.

Also, #4 needs to be amended to say, "...then we saw a 799.36 drop on Tuesday because investors smartened up to Trump's BS on China."
 
Oct 30, 2007
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#87
So basically, Trump inherited a healthy economy from Obama. Thanks for confirming that.

Also, #4 needs to be amended to say, "...then we saw a 799.36 drop on Tuesday because investors smartened up to Trump's BS on China."
It wasn't really Obama's fault, but the stock market wasn't all that healthy when Trump was elected. It had been pretty flat over the previous 2 years due to international turbulence like the Chinese stock market crash, the Greek debt crisis, and Brexit. Trump did a great job of creating an environment where the stock market could bounce back and thrive.

You're really naive if you believe #4 is incorrect. The big money that moves the stock market as a whole doesn't ever "smarten up" to a significant news catalyst 24 hours after it comes out. They started moving money out of equities due to the fact that we saw the first signs of an inverted yield curve in bonds since 2006. We're overdue for a recession, and inverted yield curves have preceded every single recession we've had for the past 60 years.
 

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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#88
It wasn't really Obama's fault, but the stock market wasn't all that healthy when Trump was elected. It had been pretty flat over the previous 2 years due to international turbulence like the Chinese stock market crash, the Greek debt crisis, and Brexit. Trump did a great job of creating an environment where the stock market could bounce back and thrive.

You're really naive if you believe #4 is incorrect. The big money that moves the stock market as a whole doesn't ever "smarten up" to a significant news catalyst 24 hours after it comes out. They started moving money out of equities due to the fact that we saw the first signs of an inverted yield curve in bonds since 2006. We're overdue for a recession, and inverted yield curves have preceded every single recession we've had for the past 60 years.[/QUOTE]
There was one that was actually a false alarm back in 1966.
 
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Sep 23, 2018
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Memphis
#89
You're really naive if you believe #4 is incorrect. The big money that moves the stock market as a whole doesn't ever "smarten up" to a significant news catalyst 24 hours after it comes out. They started moving money out of equities due to the fact that we saw the first signs of an inverted yield curve in bonds since 2006. We're overdue for a recession, and inverted yield curves have preceded every single recession we've had for the past 60 years.
You're calling me "naive"...? You're telling me that the stock market doesn't move on people simply *SAYING* something? Get out of here.

http://www.fortune.com/2018/12/03/trump-china-trade-war-deal/

That very article explains why the market moves on the simple words of a simple idiot. And then, when people actually read the "fine print", they realize Trump was just up to his carnival barking ways.
 
Sep 6, 2012
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#90
You're calling me "naive"...? You're telling me that the stock market doesn't move on people simply *SAYING* something? Get out of here.

http://www.fortune.com/2018/12/03/trump-china-trade-war-deal/

That very article explains why the market moves on the simple words of a simple idiot. And then, when people actually read the "fine print", they realize Trump was just up to his carnival barking ways.
We have seen ups and downs in the market. When Trump took office the dow was roughly 20k and was as high as 26600. We have seen it drop to 25k and people panic? I am still up, and up a lot. I don't retire for another 7 years at the earliest.
 
Sep 23, 2018
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#91
We have seen ups and downs in the market. When Trump took office the dow was roughly 20k and was as high as 26600. We have seen it drop to 25k and people panic? I am still up, and up a lot.
Of course you are...as are a bunch of people, myself included.

But how *real* are those gains? Have you considered asking that question, or a variation of it?
 
Sep 6, 2012
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#92
Of course you are...as are a bunch of people, myself included.

But how *real* are those gains? Have you considered asking that question, or a variation of it?
I am still up . The gains are as real as when I get out. I have been in the market since 1995 and more heavily since 2001. I predict I will be ok, as does my money manager (who is also my best friend from grade school).

If you chicken little the market you are in trouble. As a matter of fact I hardly log in to any of my accounts and just see my statements. I do have a Ameritrade account that I play day trader with but it is not a life savings account. I also own gold that my friend doesn't agree with, but I am currently up on that as well.
 
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Sep 23, 2018
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#94
I am still up . The gains are as real as when I get out. I have been in the market since 1995 and more heavily since 2001. I predict I will be ok, as does my money manager (who is also my best friend from grade school).

If you chicken little the market you are in trouble. As a matter of fact I hardly log in to any of my accounts and just see my statements. I do have a Ameritrade account that I play day trader with but it is not a life savings account. I also own gold that my friend doesn't agree with, but I am currently up on that as well.
I have an E-Trade account (I was with Capital One Investing, but they decided to get rid of that service because they simply don't want to administer it, I guess).

I was originally with ING Bank. They were bought by Capital One. With that absorption included the investing business. Capital One then decided to get rid of it recently. So now I'm stuck with E-Trade.
 

NotOnTV

BRB -- Taking an okie leak
Sep 14, 2010
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Gondor
#95
Of course you are...as are a bunch of people, myself included.

But how *real* are those gains? Have you considered asking that question, or a variation of it?
It's not real unless you cash in. Have you seen a chart of the markets since 1929? Are you aware that over that time up days vs. down days in the market run 3.5 to 1?
 
Sep 6, 2012
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#96
I didn't back off. What I originally said stands. The Dow increased by 11,000 points during his tenure, regardless of how flat it might have been in his last few years. You apparently think that, with Trump, it won't flatten out. It has increased more than Trump's tenure, which has seen dangerous hyper-growth and a stock market that is so grossly over-priced, that we'll first see a correction here pretty soon, AND THEN a recession in late 2019/early 2020. Then who will you blame? President Trump...or pull out stupid data from President Obama's tenure and say "see, see, it's Obama's fault!"...?

There's no light I need to see. But continue with the condescending crap. I'm just waiting for *real* economic hardship to be felt by Trump supporters. I think that's the only way the cult will be broken.
The dow did not increase 11k during his tenure, unless you count the 3 to 4k drop 2 months after he was in office.
 
Sep 6, 2012
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#97
I have an E-Trade account (I was with Capital One Investing, but they decided to get rid of that service because they simply don't want to administer it, I guess).

I was originally with ING Bank. They were bought by Capital One. With that absorption included the investing business. Capital One then decided to get rid of it recently. So now I'm stuck with E-Trade.
So you have a day trading account and are not looking at long term investments. Years ago I bought Berkshire-B in my fun money account to balance my losses. I was first in at the 130s and am average at 164 now. You cannot expect to day trade without some bumps and bruises.
 
Sep 23, 2018
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#99
So you have a day trading account and are not looking at long term investments. Years ago I bought Berkshire-B in my fun money account to balance my losses. You cannot expect to day trade without some bumps and bruises.
I wouldn't call it a day-trading account. It's not "day-trading" unless you treat it as such, which I don't.

I own stock in eight companies. I bought that stock because I trust all eight of those companies to do well over the *long term*. Some solar, some marijuana, some infrastructure, etc. It's as simple as that.
 
Oct 30, 2007
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You're calling me "naive"...? You're telling me that the stock market doesn't move on people simply *SAYING* something? Get out of here.

http://www.fortune.com/2018/12/03/trump-china-trade-war-deal/

That very article explains why the market moves on the simple words of a simple idiot. And then, when people actually read the "fine print", they realize Trump was just up to his carnival barking ways.
That's not what I said. The stock market moves all the time based off what people say. The stock market dropped 10% earlier this year based off a statement the fed chairman made about raising interest rates.

What I said was that big money doesn't "smarten up" to a news catalyst 24 hours after it comes out. I can guarantee you they read the fine print that came out of the G20 summit, and they took their positions accordingly. You saw this in futures contracts late Sunday, and in the stock market Monday.