Is America Running Out of Workers?

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RxCowboy

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From WSJ OPINION BEST OF THE WEB

Is America Running Out of Workers?
The latest NFIB survey shows small firms still trying to find all the new employees they want.

By James Freeman
Nov. 1, 2018 11:12 a.m. ET

Yesterday brought the welcome news of the best wage gains for private-sector workers in more than a decade. Now the latest monthly employer survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, due out later today, strongly suggests that the good news for U.S. workers will continue.

The small-business owners participating in the survey are once again reporting that they are trying to expand their businesses but can’t find enough qualified applicants to fill all of their available positions. Naturally, wages are headed north as firms of all sizes compete for talent.

It’s fashionable in media circles to laugh at President Trump’s non-stop salesmanship about the performance of the U.S. economy on his watch. But there’s no doubt that workers are benefiting from a historically tight labor market. Companies are eager to hire. “Thirty-eight percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, equal to last month’s record high,” reports NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg.

“Job creation was solid in October at a net addition of 0.15 workers per firm,” he adds. “Twenty-three percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Single Most Important Business Problem.” This reading on the difficulty of finding new workers is up one point since September and just two points below the all-time record high in August.

Mr. Dunkelberg seems to have been searching for previous examples when the market was this inviting for aspiring workers. He reports:

There are more job openings than job seekers, and the competition for qualified workers is pushing up compensation, especially for the better trained and educated employees... Small businesses have not experienced this level of labor market related challenges since the late 1990s when Y2K produced a surge in demand for computer and programming specialists. Current labor shortages though are more broadly distributed across industries.​

And even as they struggle to find workers, businesses are not giving up trying. A seasonally-adjusted net 22% plan to create new jobs in the October survey. Also, 34% of survey participants reported raising compensation in hopes of hiring and keeping needed employees, historically strong and just three points below September’s record high.

Companies are raising wages and some workers are coming off the sidelines to seize new opportunities. And of course there’s another way to help solve America’s worker shortage.

At the White House yesterday, the President described the job market and wisely noted:

It’s the best unemployment numbers we have in 50 years. And that’s wonderful, but we actually need workers now. That’s a good thing to be saying because that hasn’t been said for many, many decades.​
And we want people to come in. You’ve all been reading about the immigration situation with the caravans and all, but the fact is, we want people coming into the country. We want them to come in legally.​
 

steross

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The headline doesn't match the article.

The headline doesn't mention the fact that was clear throughout the article that they are wanting qualified workers, not just workers. It appears we have a lot of workers, but not many meet the standard of "qualified" at the wages that they want to pay.
 

steross

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At the White House yesterday, the President described the job market and wisely noted:

It’s the best unemployment numbers we have in 50 years. And that’s wonderful, but we actually need workers now. That’s a good thing to be saying because that hasn’t been said for many, many decades.​
And we want people to come in. You’ve all been reading about the immigration situation with the caravans and all, but the fact is, we want people coming into the country. We want them to come in legally.​
Then quit dicking around talking about shooting people and put in an appropriate work visa system.
 
Jul 7, 2004
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The headline doesn't match the article.

The headline doesn't mention the fact that was clear throughout the article that they are wanting qualified workers, not just workers. It appears we have a lot of workers, but not many meet the standard of "qualified" at the wages that they want to pay.

How many qualified workers do you think are in the caravans comming our way?
 
Oct 30, 2007
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Depends on the job and wage offered.
It was announced earlier this year that there are more open jobs than workers to fill them. There aren't enough workers with the proper skill sets to fill the positions. The biggest shortages are in highly skilled positions like STEM and medical fields.

If we attempt to fix this problem through work visas, we'll have to do it on a merit based system. I don't want to make assumptions, but my guess is most of the people in the caravan don't have advanced STEM or medical degrees.
 

kaboy42

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It was announced earlier this year that there are more open jobs than workers to fill them. There aren't enough workers with the proper skill sets to fill the positions. The biggest shortages are in highly skilled positions like STEM and medical fields.

If we attempt to fix this problem through work visas, we'll have to do it on a merit based system. I don't want to make assumptions, but my guess is most of the people in the caravan don't have advanced STEM or medical degrees.
Exactly.

Looking for like 20-40 degreed scientists (chem, bio, micro, etc) to be manufacturing associates in contract biopharmaceuticals manufacturing. Need to at least have some lab experience and be able to perform aseptic processes.

Not to be a snarky turd, but how many you think are in that caravan? One? Maybe 2? If any.
 

sc5mu93

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The biggest shortages are in highly skilled positions like STEM and medical fields.
I've seen this argument before. Silicon Valley has been pimping the H1 visa program to fill STEM needs. But in actuality, they want coders who are cheaper than current native population. Prior to that, those same companies were busted by the DOJ for anticompetitive anti-poaching agreements to suppress wages of STEM workers. Anytime those companies (and politicians whom they influence) talk about a STEM shortage, I am suspicious.

EDIT: caveat, I am speaking of CS and EE types. I don't know about the other STEM disciplines.
 
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steross

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It was announced earlier this year that there are more open jobs than workers to fill them. There aren't enough workers with the proper skill sets to fill the positions. The biggest shortages are in highly skilled positions like STEM and medical fields.

If we attempt to fix this problem through work visas, we'll have to do it on a merit based system. I don't want to make assumptions, but my guess is most of the people in the caravan don't have advanced STEM or medical degrees.
Why do we have to bring in workers to do the high pay jobs that we are spending billions educating people in our universities to do?

Google and there are plenty of articles about our advanced workers being forced to train their lower cost overseas replacements. Also, google articles showing that most Americans no longer have the fortitude do do the difficult jobs like slaughtering, picking or even roofing. At least not anywhere near the productivity of migrants. That is the work visa I’m talking about.
 

Binman4OSU

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Overhaul the student lending programs to offer more young Americans education opportunity in STEM related fields and implement a Merritt based Visa program

This is necessary for the US to remain competitive and develop the wrok force it needs

This is why I think mandatory 2 year National Guard service should be implemented where trade skills can be trained for 2 years and supplemented by the government and 4 year and beyond STEM people can get reduced or free gov sponsor college classes in exchange for their service
 
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Why do we have to bring in workers to do the high pay jobs that we are spending billions educating people in our universities to do?

Google and there are plenty of articles about our advanced workers being forced to train their lower cost overseas replacements. Also, google articles showing that most Americans no longer have the fortitude do do the difficult jobs like slaughtering, picking or even roofing. At least not anywhere near the productivity of migrants. That is the work visa I’m talking about.
https://www.monster.com/career-advice/article/shrm-industries-need-more-workers-1216
Check out this article. It has a list of the job fields with the biggest shortages. You'll see that 4 of the top 5 field are in the STEM & medical fields. Increasing salaries will help fill the gap, but that still doesn't address the issue that there are more openings than qualified candidates to fill them. At least that's what I've read.

I'm sure you're right that unskilled migrant workers could help fill the manual labor positions that most people don't want, but that's only a small part of the equation.
 

CaliforniaCowboy

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Exactly.

Looking for like 20-40 degreed scientists (chem, bio, micro, etc) to be manufacturing associates in contract biopharmaceuticals manufacturing. Need to at least have some lab experience and be able to perform aseptic processes.

Not to be a snarky turd, but how many you think are in that caravan? One? Maybe 2? If any.
I'm guessing that there are at least 2 ISIS radical terrorists with advanced degrees in the caravan, with chemical (weapons) training... a few more possibly.
 

steross

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RxCowboy

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No, not a lol. Not a wink. Actual military assessment. The president is lying to stir the base. And the lemmings are jumping. Jump! Jump! Jump! That is the lol.

Here it is:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5026468-SWB-Operations-TWG-27OCT18.html

Pg 10 note the MLCOA: "No terrorist infiltration"
View attachment 65843
No terrorist threat, but Page 9 is instructive:
1541203512696.png


The risk of property crime and crime against persons, for me, is enough to deploy the military. If we cannot defend our citizens and property against what amounts to a foreign invasion, if not a military one, then what the freak are we doing.

I'd also shoot the militia that are stealing National Guard equipment.
 

steross

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No terrorist threat, but Page 9 is instructive:
View attachment 65844

The risk of property crime and crime against persons, for me, is enough to deploy the military. If we cannot defend our citizens and property against what amounts to a foreign invasion, if not a military one, then what the freak are we doing.

I'd also shoot the militia that are stealing National Guard equipment.
I have no issue with the military being deployed but a $50 million dollar deployment of 7000 troops seems quite pricy and quite a bit premature to stop some property damage.
 

RxCowboy

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Small Business Labor and Demand Continues to Grow
Job openings that could not be filled matches September’s record high

NFIB’s chief economist William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following comments on NFIB’s October 2018 Jobs Report:
Bill "Dunk" Dunkelberg
NFIB Chief Economist
William Dunkelberg

A seasonally adjusted 16 percent of small business owners reported increasing employment an average of 3.3 workers per firm and 11 percent reported reducing employment an average of 2.9 workers per firm, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, released today. Job creation remained solid in October for small businesses at a net addition of 0.15 workers per firm.

“As we’ve seen for months, small business owners continue to be large job creators for Americans in today’s economy,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan. “Instead of worrying about costly regulations and high taxes, finding workers to sustain growth is the top concern.”

A seasonally-adjusted net 22 percent of owners plan to create new jobs, four points below August’s record high but still exceptionally strong historically. Twenty-two percent plan to increase total employment at their firm, and six percent plan reductions.

However, 38 percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, equal to September’s record high. Sixty percent of owners reported hiring or trying to hire with 88 percent of them reporting few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. When asked their ‘Single Most Important Business Problem,’ 23 percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers in October, down two points from the August record high.

“The labor force is not growing quickly enough to satisfy the demand,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “The unemployment rate is expected to be lower which means that the increase in labor force participation will not be sufficient to meet new labor demands.”

October again showed there are more job openings than job seekers, which is pushing up compensation. A net 34 percent reported raising overall compensation in hopes of hiring and retaining employees, down three points from September’s record high. Unchanged from last month, 14 percent of owners reported using temporary workers.

The labor market is tight for both skilled and unskilled workers, with 34 percent of owners reporting openings for skilled workers and 16 percent reporting openings for unskilled labor.

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