How good is OSU (Gundy) in games with a line of +/-3?

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Birry

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Feb 6, 2007
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#2
Won 10 of last 12.

But, Gundy still can't coach. :rolleyes:
Please, stop. Here are some statistics that actually matter, and they paint a dismal picture.

40 for 163 (0.245) against P5 teams with a winning record at the end of the season
3 for 21 (0.143) against final Top 10 teams
15 for 50 (0.300) against Final Top 25 teams
2 for 14 (0.125) against our "rivals"
1 conference championship in 16 years

Gundy can "coach" us to a bunch of victories against Girl Scout Troop 137, Savannah State, and wet toilet paper. And apparently that gets a lot of our fans excited :-(
 
Last edited:
Sep 29, 2011
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#3
Won 10 of last 12.

But, Gundy still can't coach. :rolleyes:
Please, stop. Here are some statistics that actually matter, and they paint a dismal picture.

40 for 163 (0.245) against P5 teams with a winning record at the end of the season
3 for 21 (0.143) against final Top 10 teams
15 for 50 (0.300) against Final Top 25 teams
2 for 14 (0.125) against our "rivals"
1 conference championship in 16 years

Gundy can "coach" us to a bunch of victories against Girl Scout Troop 137, Savannah State, and wet toilet paper.
Your numbers are all wrong, knucklehead.

Gundy is 135-66. How could he possibly have lost 123 games against P5 opponents?


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Sep 12, 2008
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#4
Please, stop. Here are some statistics that actually matter, and they paint a dismal picture.

40 for 163 (0.245) against P5 teams with a winning record at the end of the season
3 for 21 (0.143) against final Top 10 teams
15 for 50 (0.300) against Final Top 25 teams
2 for 14 (0.125) against our "rivals"
1 conference championship in 16 years

Gundy can "coach" us to a bunch of victories against Girl Scout Troop 137, Savannah State, and wet toilet paper. And apparently that gets a lot of our fans excited :-(

Still waiting for you guys to start the recall petition for Gundy..
 

Birry

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#5
Your numbers are all wrong, knucklehead.

Gundy is 135-66. How could he possibly have lost 123 games against P5 opponents?


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My #'s don't show that he's lost 123 games against P5 opponents. By my count, he's 95 for 163 (0.583) against P5 opponents for his career.
 
Sep 29, 2011
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#6
Your numbers are all wrong, knucklehead.

Gundy is 135-66. How could he possibly have lost 123 games against P5 opponents?


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My #'s don't show that he's lost 123 games against P5 opponents. By my count, he's 95 for 163 (0.583) against P5 opponents for his career.
You said he was 40 for 163 v P5 opponents.
He has not lost 68 games against P5 opponents, per your revised numbers.
His career record is 135-66. And there are a few losses against non-P5 opponents.

Math must be a challenge for you. So dont post any more of your numbers. Provide links.


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Birry

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#7
You said he was 40 for 163 v P5 opponents.
He has not lost 68 games against P5 opponents, per your revised numbers.
His career record is 135-66. And there are a few losses against non-P5 opponents.

Math must be a challenge for you. So dont post any more of your numbers. Provide links.


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I'm going through my #'s now. I'll respond once I get them checked.
 
Nov 27, 2007
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#8
Please, stop. Here are some statistics that actually matter, and they paint a dismal picture.

40 for 163 (0.245) against P5 teams with a winning record at the end of the season
3 for 21 (0.143) against final Top 10 teams
15 for 50 (0.300) against Final Top 25 teams
2 for 14 (0.125) against our "rivals"
1 conference championship in 16 years

Gundy can "coach" us to a bunch of victories against Girl Scout Troop 137, Savannah State, and wet toilet paper. And apparently that gets a lot of our fans excited :-(
"Final" T-25 and T-10 teams is a strawman argument meant to skew the data. Obviously with a loss or multiples teams will fall out of rankings. You get credit for beating a ranked team when you beat them, regardless of whether they deserved it or not.
 

Birry

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You said he was 40 for 163 v P5 opponents.
He has not lost 68 games against P5 opponents, per your revised numbers.
His career record is 135-66. And there are a few losses against non-P5 opponents.

Math must be a challenge for you. So dont post any more of your numbers. Provide links.
Found some bugs in my spreadsheet. Final #'s are below.

All games = 136 for 202 (0.673)
Versus Winning Record (All teams) = 59 for 120 (0.492)
Versus P5 Teams (All) = 100 for 163 (0.613)
Versus P5 Teams with Winning Record = 41 for 99 (0.414)
Versus Final Top 25 = 16 for 50 (0.320)
Versus Final Top 10 = 3 for 21 (0.143)
Versus our "rival" = 2 for 16 (0.125)
 

Birry

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#10
"Final" T-25 and T-10 teams is a strawman argument meant to skew the data. Obviously with a loss or multiples teams will fall out of rankings. You get credit for beating a ranked team when you beat them, regardless of whether they deserved it or not.
I disagree. Many teams are ranked WAY too high to start the season (Texas), and we may beat them early in the season, even though they finish with a horrible overall record. Maybe if there was a way to do a true stat analysis with a deviation from initial to final rankings or something, then it may be more accurate. I'm not good enough with actual stats to know how to do that.

I think final rankings are actually the best measure of how "good" a team actually is after all games have been played. It's certainly not a strawman IMO.

You honestly think that Texas beat the 6th best team in the country when they beat us this season, and should get credit for a Top 10 win?
 
Last edited:
Oct 30, 2007
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#11
Oklahoma State has been very good against the spread under Coach Gundy. They're ranked 3rd in the country over the past decade against the spread. I know that lines are set in an attempt to get equal money on both sides, but this shows that we've been underrated for a long time.

However, since 2017 we've lost 11 games we were favored to win and only won 4 games that we were favored to lose. So it seems that things are starting to head in the wrong direction.

1607021588725.png
 
Sep 29, 2011
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Breckenridge, CO
#12
You said he was 40 for 163 v P5 opponents.
He has not lost 68 games against P5 opponents, per your revised numbers.
His career record is 135-66. And there are a few losses against non-P5 opponents.

Math must be a challenge for you. So dont post any more of your numbers. Provide links.
Found some bugs in my spreadsheet. Final #'s are below.

All games = 136 for 202 (0.673)
Versus Winning Record (All teams) = 59 for 120 (0.492)
Versus P5 Teams (All) = 100 for 163 (0.613)
Versus P5 Teams with Winning Record = 41 for 99 (0.414)
Versus Final Top 25 = 16 for 50 (0.320)
Versus Final Top 10 = 3 for 21 (0.143)
Versus our "rival" = 2 for 16 (0.125)
Numbers are still wrong. Just stop.
Total games - 201
Wins - 135
P5 wins - 95
P5 losses - 62


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wrenhal

Federal Marshal
Aug 11, 2011
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#13
Won 10 of last 12.

But, Gundy still can't coach. :rolleyes:
Please, stop. Here are some statistics that actually matter, and they paint a dismal picture.

40 for 163 (0.245) against P5 teams with a winning record at the end of the season
3 for 21 (0.143) against final Top 10 teams
15 for 50 (0.300) against Final Top 25 teams
2 for 14 (0.125) against our "rivals"
1 conference championship in 16 years

Gundy can "coach" us to a bunch of victories against Girl Scout Troop 137, Savannah State, and wet toilet paper.
Your numbers are all wrong, knucklehead.

Gundy is 135-66. How could he possibly have lost 123 games against P5 opponents?


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Maybe he meant 40 for 16. No no no no that's not possible ooh he meant 40 for 63. No no no no that totally goes against his whole argument. I have no idea what he meant then

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Sep 29, 2011
2,212
494
713
61
Breckenridge, CO
#15
Won 10 of last 12.

But, Gundy still can't coach. :rolleyes:
Please, stop. Here are some statistics that actually matter, and they paint a dismal picture.

40 for 163 (0.245) against P5 teams with a winning record at the end of the season
3 for 21 (0.143) against final Top 10 teams
15 for 50 (0.300) against Final Top 25 teams
2 for 14 (0.125) against our "rivals"
1 conference championship in 16 years

Gundy can "coach" us to a bunch of victories against Girl Scout Troop 137, Savannah State, and wet toilet paper.
Your numbers are all wrong, knucklehead.

Gundy is 135-66. How could he possibly have lost 123 games against P5 opponents?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Maybe he meant 40 for 16. No no no no that's not possible ooh he meant 40 for 63. No no no no that totally goes against his whole argument. I have no idea what he meant then

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using Tapatalk
No wonder he’s a Gundy hater. His spreadsheet says so.


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Birry

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#16
Numbers are still wrong. Just stop.
Total games - 201
Wins - 135
P5 wins - 95
P5 losses - 62
Your P5 calc indicates a worse record than mine, but it's not off by much. Not sure where your #'s came from, either.
I think the most telling stats are how we fare against the best teams, and it's not good.
16-34 against Final Top 25
41-58 against Winning P5 teams
3-18 against Final Top 10
2-16 against our "rival"
1 conference championship in 16 years

Gundy beats up on weaklings, and it's about to be a decade since his only conference championship. We can do better than this.
 
Last edited:
Sep 29, 2011
2,212
494
713
61
Breckenridge, CO
#17
Numbers are still wrong. Just stop.
Total games - 201
Wins - 135
P5 wins - 95
P5 losses - 62
Your P5 calc indicates a worse record than mine, but it's not off by much. Not sure where your #'s came from, either.
I think the most telling stats are how we fare against the best teams, and it's not good.
16-34 against Final Top 25
41-58 against Winning P5 teams
3-18 against Final Top 10
2-16 against our "rival"
1 conference championship in 16 years
And we’re supposed to trust your numbers when heretofore every post has had incorrect numbers?

And if someone can’t count, we’re supposed to acknowledge their take on wrong numbers?


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Birry

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#18
And we’re supposed to trust your numbers when heretofore every post has had incorrect numbers?

And if someone can’t count, we’re supposed to acknowledge their take on wrong numbers?


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Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

Are you able to count more conference championships (1), wins against our "rival" (2), or wins against final Top 10 teams (3) than I have? Because those tell the story pretty easily.
 
Nov 27, 2007
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#19
I disagree. Many teams are ranked WAY too high to start the season (Texas), and we may beat them early in the season, even though they finish with a horrible overall record. Maybe if there was a way to do a true stat analysis with a deviation from initial to final rankings or something, then it may be more accurate. I'm not good enough with actual stats to know how to do that.

I think final rankings are actually the best measure of how "good" a team actually is after all games have been played. It's certainly not a strawman IMO.

You honestly think that Texas beat the 6th best team in the country when they beat us this season, and should get credit for a Top 10 win?
They absolutely deserve to be credited with a top 10 win. We were ranked 6 whether we deserve it or not. If a team beats a top 10 team in a bowl game, do they not "deserve credit" for a top 10 win, when that team drops?

Final rankings are NOT the best indicator if how good a team is. Many things happen over the course of a season that change the dynamic of a team. A late season injury to a key contributor gives no indication of how "good" a team was when the game was played.

When talking about accomplishments and doing analytics, experts never talk about " victories against final rankings" but they always indicate top 25 victories.
 

Birry

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#20
They absolutely deserve to be credited with a top 10 win. We were ranked 6 whether we deserve it or not. If a team beats a top 10 team in a bowl game, do they not "deserve credit" for a top 10 win, when that team drops?

Final rankings are NOT the best indicator if how good a team is. Many things happen over the course of a season that change the dynamic of a team. A late season injury to a key contributor gives no indication of how "good" a team was when the game was played.

When talking about accomplishments and doing analytics, experts never talk about " victories against final rankings" but they always indicate top 25 victories.
Current rankings aren't the foolproof method you're making them to be. We will be lucky to finish in the top 25 this season, which I think is fair considering how we've played. Texas can brag about a "top 10" win all they want, but that doesn't mean they beat the 6th best team in the country that day. Not even close.

Personally, I don't even think rankings should be published or counted until conference championships have been played. The intermediate rankings are meaningless IMO, and only used for TV ratings.