Gundy's Ceiling and Defining Success

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SwingingPete

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Jan 28, 2011
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#1
It's been a while since I've posted on here, but this weekend (well, season) has me wondering a bigger question regarding HCMG. We're all obviously frustrated with his QB decisions in the past and this year is no exception. His decision to keep OCMY on staff for as long as he has, has been questionable at best. The 10 win seasons have been very nice, but this brings me to my overarching question - has Gundy reached his ceiling?

Also, at what point do we, as a fan base, become unsatisfied with 10 win seasons? That seems to be a common statement among fans when we underwhelm - "well, at least we're winning more than we used to! I remember when we used to struggle to get XX amount of wins!" Personally, I'm pretty sick of such a low metric of success. 10 win seasons are great, but unless you're bringing in a conference title or something better than a Camping World Bowl, then you're not being very successful.
 
May 4, 2011
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#2
It's been a while since I've posted on here, but this weekend (well, season) has me wondering a bigger question regarding HCMG. We're all obviously frustrated with his QB decisions in the past and this year is no exception. His decision to keep OCMY on staff for as long as he has, has been questionable at best. The 10 win seasons have been very nice, but this brings me to my overarching question - has Gundy reached his ceiling?

Also, at what point do we, as a fan base, become unsatisfied with 10 win seasons? That seems to be a common statement among fans when we underwhelm - "well, at least we're winning more than we used to! I remember when we used to struggle to get XX amount of wins!" Personally, I'm pretty sick of such a low metric of success. 10 win seasons are great, but unless you're bringing in a conference title or something better than a Camping World Bowl, then you're not being very successful.
You don't fire a coach that consistently gets 10 wins. Find me a program that improved after firing a coach like that. Virtually every program that's done it tanked with their next hire. We may want more and there's nothing wrong with that, but you probably need to go the Bowden route to have a good shot at the next coach being successful.
 

SwingingPete

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#3
You don't fire a coach that consistently gets 10 wins. Find me a program that improved after firing a coach like that. Virtually every program that's done it tanked with their next hire. We may want more and there's nothing wrong with that, but you probably need to go the Bowden route to have a good shot at the next coach being successful.
I'm not saying we should definitely do that, but look at the career of Mike Bellotti at Oregon. I've made this argument to a few co-workers, but his last year at Oregon was a 10 win season and they passed the torch to Chip Kelly. I'd say that worked out well...
 
Jul 7, 2010
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#4
I'm not saying we should definitely do that, but look at the career of Mike Bellotti at Oregon. I've made this argument to a few co-workers, but his last year at Oregon was a 10 win season and they passed the torch to Chip Kelly. I'd say that worked out well...
Yeah, but Bellotti wasn't fired. He was promoted to AD. And had a clear succession plan in place with Chip Kelly.

I get your point, though.
 
May 4, 2011
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#5
I'm not saying we should definitely do that, but look at the career of Mike Bellotti at Oregon. I've made this argument to a few co-workers, but his last year at Oregon was a 10 win season and they passed the torch to Chip Kelly. I'd say that worked out well...
Yeah, but Bellotti wasn't fired. He was promoted to AD. And had a clear succession plan in place with Chip Kelly.

I get your point, though.
Exactly. Thus, it's more like Bowden. No firing involved.
 
Dec 6, 2013
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#6
I'm not saying we should definitely do that, but look at the career of Mike Bellotti at Oregon. I've made this argument to a few co-workers, but his last year at Oregon was a 10 win season and they passed the torch to Chip Kelly. I'd say that worked out well...
I would point at Gary Gibbs. He coached during the 11 game format, so the bar should only be 9 wins instead of 10, but he got there twice, and 8 wins once, and beat OSU most of those years. He total record at OU was 44–23–2 - by any standard thats a winning record.

Granted they didn't get the next two hires right, but firing Gibbs was the first step in a journey that got their program back to winning the Big XII and playing for NC titles.
 
Sep 23, 2018
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#7
You don't fire a coach that consistently gets 10 wins. Find me a program that improved after firing a coach like that. Virtually every program that's done it tanked with their next hire. We may want more and there's nothing wrong with that, but you probably need to go the Bowden route to have a good shot at the next coach being successful.
Eventually, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A DAMN RISK!

What happens when Gundy retires? Does everyone freak out? Whether he stops being the coach tomorrow or many years from now, we're going to have to change at some point.
 

CocoCincinnati

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Feb 7, 2007
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#8
The question isn't how long will we be happy with 10 win seasons but how long in between 10 win season before we lose our patience. Is this season an anomaly or the beginning of the end? We won't know the answer to that for a while.
 

NotOnTV

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#9
The question isn't how long will we be happy with 10 win seasons but how long in between 10 win season before we lose our patience. Is this season an anomaly or the beginning of the end? We won't know the answer to that for a while.
2016 - CMU home debacle
2017 - TCU and Kansas State home debacles. Leaving off UO because the fight was there.
2018 - Texas Tech and Iowa State home debacles. Kansas State road debacle. Other debacles to be determined.

Looks like a distinct trend to me.
 

Kev_Dawg

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#10
The question isn't how long will we be happy with 10 win seasons but how long in between 10 win season before we lose our patience. Is this season an anomaly or the beginning of the end? We won't know the answer to that for a while.
Exactly. When there's consistent 10 win seasons there's really not a ton of room to complain. However, we are definitely not getting close to that this season, when we should have. Chances are we will have a losing record when we should have had 8-9 wins due to coaching issues. That is the part that's unacceptable. Will we be able to rebound next season and get 9+ regular season wins again? Time will tell, but unless there are some significant changes there is no way that will happen. And even a blind person can tell significant changes should have occurred by now, yet they have not. That is very worrisome.
 
Oct 18, 2013
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#11
The question isn't how long will we be happy with 10 win seasons but how long in between 10 win season before we lose our patience. Is this season an anomaly or the beginning of the end? We won't know the answer to that for a while.
This! I'm willing to give Gundy a pass this year, even though most of us have seen this dumpster fire coming for several seasons. If he can bring in new coordinators, get some life back in the team, and show things are moving back in the right direction next year, I'm good with that. He's one of us and I WANT him to continue to be successful here. To get there though will require some significant changes and I'm not sure his ego will let him do that short of a "come to Jesus meeting" with Holder - and sadly I'm not even sure that will have the impact it would back when Holgorson was forced on him. Anyway, if next year doesn't bring big change and we see a repeat of the garbage we're seeing this year, I would agree that it's time to make a change.
 

NotOnTV

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#12
This! I'm willing to give Gundy a pass this year, even though most of us have seen this dumpster fire coming for several seasons. If he can bring in new coordinators, get some life back in the team, and show things are moving back in the right direction next year, I'm good with that. He's one of us and I WANT him to continue to be successful here. To get there though will require some significant changes and I'm not sure his ego will let him do that short of a "come to Jesus meeting" with Holder - and sadly I'm not even sure that will have the impact it would back when Holgorson was forced on him. Anyway, if next year doesn't bring big change and we see a repeat of the garbage we're seeing this year, I would agree that it's time to make a change.
I would agree except that his remarks and demeanor in press conferences indicate that he doesn't feel that he's doing anything wrong.
 
May 4, 2011
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#13
Eventually, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A DAMN RISK!

What happens when Gundy retires? Does everyone freak out? Whether he stops being the coach tomorrow or many years from now, we're going to have to change at some point.
I'll reiterate, find me a program that improved after firing a coach who regular won 10 games. I'll even reduce the wins to 9. FSU with Fisher and Oregon with Kelly are examples of how you can let the coach end on their own terms while getting a succession plan in place, even when the coach cant get anywhere near their original peak, like FSU with Bowden. I'm not saying never take a risk. I am saying that you don't fire a program-defining coach until he's consistently bad. You don't take that risk until it is the less risky alternative (e.g., after multiple losing seasons).
 

NotOnTV

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#14
I'll reiterate, find me a program that improved after firing a coach who regular won 10 games. I'll even reduce the wins to 9. FSU with Fisher and Oregon with Kelly are examples of how you can let the coach end on their own terms while getting a succession plan in place, even when the coach cant get anywhere near their original peak, like FSU with Bowden. I'm not saying never take a risk. I am saying that you don't fire a program-defining coach until he's consistently bad. You don't take that risk until it is the less risky alternative (e.g., after multiple losing seasons).
I don't think there are many people who kid themselves into think there wouldn't be down years after a change. Apparently this contingent on the board is letting some of the points another contingent is making fly clean over their heads. I think the other contingent is concerned about continuing to shovel five mill per year of scarce resources onto the Titanic. FWIW, plenty of programs who have made a change and have gone through some lean years as a result are back on the upswing...Oregon being one of them.
 
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#15
If we win 6 regular season games this year, we will have averaged 8 regular season wins per year for the last 5 years. That's pretty good, but it isn't elite. A top 10 paid coach needs to win a conference championship more than once a decade.

I love Coach Gundy. He isn't going anywhere and we wouldn't make a change unless he has a few sub-par years in a row. The only thing I really worry is that he's content with being good and he doesn't have what it takes to achieve greatness. He needs to find the fire and determination he had when he was younger.
 
May 4, 2011
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#16
I don't think there are many people who kid themselves into think there wouldn't be down years after a change. Apparently this contingent on the board is letting some of the points another contingent is making fly clean over their heads. I think the other contingent is concerned about continuing to shovel five mill per year of scarce resources onto the Titanic. FWIW, plenty of programs who have made a change and have gone through some lean years as a result are back on the upswing...Oregon being one of them.
You should go look up Belotti's season by season performance. I think you'll find some similarities between his record and Gundy's. He became AD and was not fired. Helfrich got fired in his fourth season after two prior coaches had already established the program.
 
May 4, 2011
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#19
Still early in Orgeron's tenure to say he improved it. He hasn't actually exceeded what Miles was doing at the end of his tenure. Les Miles went 10-3 in his final full season and Orgeron went 9-4 in his first full seaso. But I'll concede you could be right if he keeps this up and gets them in the playoff.
 

pennpoke

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#20
If we win 6 regular season games this year, we will have averaged 8 regular season wins per year for the last 5 years. That's pretty good, but it isn't elite. A top 10 paid coach needs to win a conference championship more than once a decade.

I love Coach Gundy. He isn't going anywhere and we wouldn't make a change unless he has a few sub-par years in a row. The only thing I really worry is that he's content with being good and he doesn't have what it takes to achieve greatness. He needs to find the fire and determination he had when he was younger.
What bugs me about Gundy is the fact that he played us against other job offers to end up with elite pay, like top 10-15 program pay. At an average of 8 wins per season, he's overpaid. With his compensation, he deserves every bit of guff he's getting from the fans.

I'd have been willing to cut him a lot more slack if he'd have acted even half as committed to this program over the years as Boynton has in a year and a half. He's an alum for Pete's sake, and he's acted like he'd ditch us for Tennessee's money not once but twice. He made his bed. Now he gets to sleep in it.