Gundy - Look at me again

  • You are viewing Orangepower as a Guest. To start new threads, reply to posts, or participate in polls or contests - you must register. Registration is free and easy. Click Here to register.
Status
Not open for further replies.

Lab Rat

Hold on while I make a chart
Jan 5, 2012
7,083
9,999
743
#81
There's probably a better thread for this, but here's how the current Big 12 teams have performed against OSU and OU since 2010. Not including their games against each other, OSU is 45-14 (76.3%) and OU is 49-11 (81.7%) against common Big 12 foes. (OU has played an extra game due to the 2017 Big 12 championship game.)

vs. OSU
OU has a 6-2 record against OSU since 2010 and an average point differential of +5.5 points per game. Despite having a 3-5 record (37.5%) against OSU, KSU has outscored since 2010, with an average point differential of +3 points per game. Baylor has a 4-4 record but has an avg. pt diff. of -11.
View attachment 60436

vs. OU
Among the current Big 12 teams, Baylor has the best record (3-5) and average point differential (-0.75) against OU since 2010. OSU has the second best point differential (-5.5) and is tied with Texas for third with the best record (2-6; KSU is 2-5).
View attachment 60437


Here are the same data in 1D format:
View attachment 60439
View attachment 60440


OSU has been good against the rest of the Big 12, but they've only been better than OU against Texas Tech. Based on this information, it's not surprising that OSU has a losing record against OU over the past 8 seasons. Perhaps we should be 3-5 instead of 2-6, but a predictive model of outcome based on performance of common opponents would likely be consistent with our actual Bedlam record.
I've added to this to make it more meaningful. Based on their 8 common Big 12 opponents, I've drawn regression curves for OSU and OU since 2010. Note that the actual 8 Bedlam games since 2010 are not included on the plots below and are not used in the regression calculations. However, based on their respective performances against their common Big 12 opponents, I was able to predict how OU and OSU should perform against each other since 2010. This prediction indicates that OU should have won 74.1% of the Bedlam games with an average point differential of 11.1.
1524073754711.png

1524073777850.png



Now, let's include the actual Bedlam games on the plots, but those Bedlam games are still not included in the regression calculations. Note the position of the red diamond relative to the OU symbol (crimson and white square) and OSU symbol (orange and black square).
1524073987330.png

1524074008395.png


Here's the summary:
1524074347981.png
1524074353609.png




tl;dr -- A 2-6 record vs. OU since 2010 is exactly what we should have based on the performances of OSU and OU vs. the other 8 Big 12 teams. If anything, our actual average point differential (-5.5) is better than our predicted pt. differential (-11.1).
 

Lab Rat

Hold on while I make a chart
Jan 5, 2012
7,083
9,999
743
#83
Point differential is heavily impacted by a 41 point win.
I don't understand, are you referring to a specific 41-point win, or just generally saying that large margins will affect a mean more than small margins?

If you are referring to Bedlam games, OU's largest margin of victory was 35 (in 2015), while OSU's largest margin of victory was 34 (in 2011). These essentially cancel each other out, as the net average point differential would be -0.5 for OSU based on only these two games.

Finally, regressions like the ones that I've done do not exclude outliers, but the large sample size does help in limiting the amount of skewing that a single point can have over the entire data set.
 

cowboyethics344

Federal Marshal
Apr 2, 2008
17,094
8,083
1,743
#89
10 win seasons aren’t low expectations. Quit measuring success based only beating OU. You might get what you ask for and you’d be squawking the loudest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If Kansas or Kansas state stood between us and a big 12 championship/playoff and we couldn’t beat them but twice a decade then i would be pissed we could not beat them. If you want to be the best then you have to beat the best who ever the hell they are.
 

CPTNQUIRK

I'm Your Captain!
A/V Subscriber
Nov 20, 2006
29,766
19,817
1,743
67
In the Boondocks in Creek County, Oklahoma
#90
If Kansas or Kansas state stood between us and a big 12 championship/playoff and we couldn’t beat them but twice a decade then i would be pissed we could not beat them. If you want to be the best then you have to beat the best who ever the hell they are.
Once again, WHAT DOES ANY OF THAT HAVE TO DO WITH GUNDY REMOVING HIS SHIRT? Absolutely nothing!
 
Oct 27, 2003
4,022
2,501
1,743
61
McKinney, TX
Visit site
#91
10 win seasons aren’t low expectations. Quit measuring success based only beating OU. You might get what you ask for and you’d be squawking the loudest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If Kansas or Kansas state stood between us and a big 12 championship/playoff and we couldn’t beat them but twice a decade then i would be pissed we could not beat them. If you want to be the best then you have to beat the best who ever the hell they are.
That’s not the way you come off. All you care about is OU


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

cowboyethics344

Federal Marshal
Apr 2, 2008
17,094
8,083
1,743
#92
That’s not the way you come off. All you care about is OU


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
No I care about OSU improving. If I only cared about OU then I would only watch the bedlam game. No matter what you or any other fan think... OU stands in our way of becoming a elite team. OSU can’t do better than 9-10 wins without going through OU. It’s a fact and you can ignore it or embrace the fact that we need to do better against them.
 

CPTNQUIRK

I'm Your Captain!
A/V Subscriber
Nov 20, 2006
29,766
19,817
1,743
67
In the Boondocks in Creek County, Oklahoma
#93
No I care about OSU improving. If I only cared about OU then I would only watch the bedlam game. No matter what you or any other fan think... OU stands in our way of becoming a elite team. OSU can’t do better than 9-10 wins without going through OU. It’s a fact and you can ignore it or embrace the fact that we need to do better against them.
Check your math because you are absolutely wrong. We could go 11-0 without even playing OU.
 

Jostate

CPTNQUIRK called me a greenhorn
A/V Subscriber
Jun 24, 2005
17,206
13,246
1,743
#95
I


tl;dr -- A 2-6 record vs. OU since 2010 is exactly what we should have based on the performances of OSU and OU vs. the other 8 Big 12 teams. If anything, our actual average point differential (-5.5) is better than our predicted pt. differential (-11.1).
Spoken like a true statition.

I wonder why you chose the 8 year range? It might help your numbers even more if you just went from 2011 through 2014.

Without doing a bunch of figuring and missing the charts I'll point out again for the last 10 years in regular season conference games, once you remove the head to head completion we have almost identical records. We have 59 wins OU has 61. I would expect 2 teams with such similar records to have a pretty even head to head. Also as has been pointed out we are second in the conference in overall wins but lower in Bedlam records.

You can chart it out all you want but many of us have been at the games. Sure everyone has trouble with OU but we should have the least trouble based on our overall record.
tl;dr -- A 2-6 record vs. OU since 2010 is exactly what we should have based on the performances of OSU and OU vs. the other 8 Big 12 teams. If anything, our actual average point differential (-5.5) is better than our predicted pt. differential (-11.1).
Spoken like a true statition.

I wonder why you chose the 8 year range? It might help your numbers even more if you just went from 2011 through 2014.

Without doing a bunch of figuring and missing the charts I'll point out again for the last 10 years in regular season conference games, once you remove the head to head completion we have almost identical records with OU. We have 59 wins OU has 61. I would expect 2 teams with such similar records to have a pretty even head to head. Also as has been pointed out we are second in the conference in overall wins but lower in Bedlam records.

You can chart it out all you want but many of us have been at the games. Sure everyone has trouble with OU but we should have the least trouble based on our overall record.

Just to emphasize Gundy's struggles in Bedlam, if you just look at the last 2:15 in regulation for the past 6 Bedlam games, OU has outscored OSU 35 - 7.

It still gets back to the bottom line. Gundy is a great coach except in one game per year.
 

wreck

Intrigued By Shiny Objects
A/V Subscriber
Jun 3, 2006
1,746
910
1,743
Dallas
#96
Instead of focusing on our record against Oklahoma ...... isn't comparing records against top 10 teams in general more telling? I don't know how all teams stack up - but OU is almost always a top 7 or 8 team in the country when we play them each year.
 

Lab Rat

Hold on while I make a chart
Jan 5, 2012
7,083
9,999
743
#98
Spoken like a true statition.

I wonder why you chose the 8 year range? It might help your numbers even more if you just went from 2011 through 2014.

Without doing a bunch of figuring and missing the charts I'll point out again for the last 10 years in regular season conference games, once you remove the head to head completion we have almost identical records. We have 59 wins OU has 61. I would expect 2 teams with such similar records to have a pretty even head to head. Also as has been pointed out we are second in the conference in overall wins but lower in Bedlam records.

You can chart it out all you want but many of us have been at the games. Sure everyone has trouble with OU but we should have the least trouble based on our overall record.


Spoken like a true statition.

I wonder why you chose the 8 year range? It might help your numbers even more if you just went from 2011 through 2014.

Without doing a bunch of figuring and missing the charts I'll point out again for the last 10 years in regular season conference games, once you remove the head to head completion we have almost identical records with OU. We have 59 wins OU has 61. I would expect 2 teams with such similar records to have a pretty even head to head. Also as has been pointed out we are second in the conference in overall wins but lower in Bedlam records.

You can chart it out all you want but many of us have been at the games. Sure everyone has trouble with OU but we should have the least trouble based on our overall record.

Just to emphasize Gundy's struggles in Bedlam, if you just look at the last 2:15 in regulation for the past 6 Bedlam games, OU has outscored OSU 35 - 7.

It still gets back to the bottom line. Gundy is a great coach except in one game per year.
Let’s say that Team A plays 8 other teams and wins all of them by an average of 20 points. Team B plays those same 8 teams and wins all of them by an average of 3 points. Although both Team A and Team B have the same record and have played the same teams, Team A would clearly be predicted to beat Team B. Team A might even be a 3:1 favorite.
 

wrenhal

Territorial Marshal
Aug 11, 2011
6,565
3,375
743
48
#99
No I care about OSU improving. If I only cared about OU then I would only watch the bedlam game. No matter what you or any other fan think... OU stands in our way of becoming a elite team. OSU can’t do better than 9-10 wins without going through OU. It’s a fact and you can ignore it or embrace the fact that we need to do better against them.
Check your math because you are absolutely wrong. We could go 11-0 without even playing OU.
And have a 12 win season without counting OU

Sent from my Moto G Play using Tapatalk
 

stonewallpoke

가라
A/V Subscriber
Nov 19, 2007
31,474
20,706
1,743
Gunsan City, Korea
You and cro must be best friends. Both of you have low expectations and are happy with a 15% win percentage against OU. I guess when your expectations are for nothing better you tend to be indifferent towards results.
This isn’t even a creative attempt at a rebuttal.

Gundy takes off his shirt and suddenly it’s a referendum on his entire track record? You clearly have an agenda, regardless of the actual topic. Nobody is “happy” with his Bedlam record. But using that as a measurement of his overall success is asinine.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.